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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
 Posted - 02/02/2005 : 10:09:43
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While normally I feel challenging everything is the way to go it seems our own practices are going to bite us in the proverbial ass.
The issue is global warming, not whether it is happening or not, it is more than widely accepted that it is happening at an increasing rate. However there is a decent sized group of scientists and individuals who say something to the effect of this.."Well we cant be certain yet that this is not a natural cycle, There is not enough evidence to link humans to the increase, There isnt enough proof that CO2 can cause such a dramatic increase in temperature" Etc..
Now we face a dilemma, change our ways and hope we do enough in time to avert the worst of the effects for the future of the planet or dont change and wait another 20 years to see if its our actions that caused it.
This is a deadly mentality for all of us, while it cannot be conclusivly proven yet, risking everything to wait for data is suicidal. This is why we are screwed, because on this issue the skeptic mentality will win out, many humans still are not ready to accept the fact that we are nailing our own coffin.
Imagine a community of 30 individuals starting a society of their own. Food production will rely solely on hunting and each person will get a gun. This method is so successful that all other hunting methods are forgotten. Now after a few years one of the guns explodes and kills one of the thirty. A great debate insues about gun safety and whether they should stop using them, but too many argue that one gun exploding is not enough to justify labeling them unsafe. Many reasons could have caused the explosions they argued. A month later a second person is killed and still they argued that two incidences does not prove anything. And this continued till only 20 individuals remained. Now the anti-gun campain was gaining great strength with the added problem of diversity. How can the community survive without enough people? But still the gun lovers were to stubborn, some claimed that the others didnt use thier guns right or that they were loaded wrong, surely thier gun which had worked perfectly for years would not fail, plus no one even know how to hunt without the guns. Eventually a law was passed, but those stubbon ones ignored the laws and kept on killing themselfs.
The point of my story is, in the case of global warming you cannot wait for proper evidence, because it will be too late if we do ever find it.
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"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 02/02/2005 10:23:46
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astropin
SFN Regular
USA
970 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2005 : 10:42:11 [Permalink]
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| While I agree with you BigPapa, I also think that we will not change our ways. At least not enough to make a difference. Personally I think "Global Warming" is a combination of natural changes and our effects. If we changed everything right now (which just isn't going to happen) it would probably slow it down, but I don't think it would stop it. |
I would rather face a cold reality than delude myself with comforting fantasies.
You are free to believe what you want to believe and I am free to ridicule you for it.
Atheism:
The result of an unbiased and rational search for the truth.
Infinitus est numerus stultorum |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2005 : 11:56:20 [Permalink]
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| Anyway, sorry for being fatalistic, but hey I view it as reality. It just pisses me off that so many as blind to it, gotta go sign the lease on the new Envoy...later. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2005 : 15:30:03 [Permalink]
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quote:
The issue is global warming, not whether it is happening or not, it is more than widely accepted that it is happening at an increasing rate. However there is a decent sized group of scientists and individuals who say something to the effect of this.."Well we cant be certain yet that this is not a natural cycle, There is not enough evidence to link humans to the increase, There isnt enough proof that CO2 can cause such a dramatic increase in temperature" Etc..
Well, as it happens, they are right. There isn't enough evidence to blame the warming on us humans.
But. This is a major But.
We do know for a fact that the crap we release into the atmosphere can casue warming. Now, even IF we are in the middle of a natural warming cycle there are several things to keep in mind.
1. Small changes in global temp translate into major climate changes.
2. Even if the total human contribution was responsible for just a small fraction of the warming, the resultant climate shift beyond the natural trend could be significant.
and my personal favorite,
3. There is not enough evidence to say that the current warming trend is a natural one.
With all that in mind, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the benefit in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2005 : 17:25:04 [Permalink]
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Hrrmmmm apparently somebody else agrees with me.
http://blogs.salon.com/0004469/
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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woolytoad
Skeptic Friend
313 Posts |
Posted - 02/02/2005 : 18:10:10 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
The point of my story is, in the case of global warming you cannot wait for proper evidence, because it will be too late if we do ever find it.
I like to think that part of being a skeptic is being a reasonable person, able to use common sense.
In this case we know that the things we're putting into the atmosphere could cause what we are seeing. It would take too long to be absolutely sure. However, if we continue we know for sure we're doomed. We also know that we don't need to be doing what we're doing. So taking action now is a reasonable option. Even if we are wrong, we're still better off.
Looks win win to me. Why wait for absolutel evidence? |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2005 : 01:36:08 [Permalink]
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One problem is that if you use exaggerated, incomplete or false information, there is a risk of the other side using that as an argument to ignore the whole thing.
As the Rathergate story shows.
People partly choose what they believe...
"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
-- Sir Winston Churchill
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2005 : 06:40:39 [Permalink]
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| My biggest issue is there are a billion or more people who literally cant wait for the end of the world/the rapture/apocolypse etc. because they think God thinks they are special. So we can almost gauruntee these folks wont be helping with the problem and may even intentionally cause more damage. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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NubiWan
Skeptic Friend
USA
424 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2005 : 11:42:00 [Permalink]
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quote:
It is when the temperature moves up to 2C above the pre-industrial level, expected in the middle of this century - within the lifetime of many people alive today - that serious effects start to come thick and fast, studies suggest.
Substantial losses of Arctic sea ice will threaten species such as polar bears and walruses, while in tropical regions "bleaching" of coral reefs will become more frequent - when the animals that live in the coral are forced out by high temperatures and the reef may die. Mediterranean regions will be hit by more forest fires and insect pests, while in regions of the US such as the Rockies, rivers may become too warm for trout and salmon.
Europe to Australia; the broad-leaved forests of China will start to die. The numbers at risk from hunger will increase and another billion and a half people will face water shortages, and GDP losses in some developing countries will become significant.
Above the 3C raised level, which may be after 2070, the effects will be catastrophic..,
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=607254
Well all this used to really bother me, but I feel ever so much better, since giving up hope...  |
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Isaiah
Skeptic Friend
USA
83 Posts |
Posted - 02/03/2005 : 16:28:13 [Permalink]
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Bill Moyers: There is no tomorrow: "The text is taken from Moyers' remarks upon receiving the Global Environmental Citizen Award from the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School."
quote:
And why not? There's a constituency for it. A 2002 Time-CNN poll found that 59 percent of Americans believe that the prophecies found in the book of Revelations are going to come true. Nearly one-quarter think the Bible predicted the 9/11 attacks. Drive across the country with your radio tuned to the more than 1,600 Christian radio stations, or in the motel turn on some of the 250 Christian TV stations, and you can hear some of this end-time gospel. And you will come to understand why people under the spell of such potent prophecies cannot be expected, as Grist puts it, "to worry about the environment. Why care about the earth, when the droughts, floods, famine and pestilence brought by ecological collapse are signs of the apocalypse foretold in the Bible? Why care about global climate change when you and yours will be rescued in the rapture? And why care about converting from oil to solar when the same God who performed the miracle of the loaves and fishes can whip up a few billion barrels of light crude with a word?"
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For Real Things I Know - http://solomonj.blogspot.com
"My point is, that you cannot use lack of evidence for one possibility as proof for another." - Dude
“I would rather delude myself with comforting fantasies than face a cold reality” - Isaiah, altered from astropin |
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tomk80
SFN Regular
Netherlands
1278 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2005 : 09:36:08 [Permalink]
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I do want to comment on a particular thing here. The scientific consensus at this point as lead out in the IPCC 2001 report (as well as subsequent reports and articles) is that when we model the natural causes we know of for global warming alone, we cannot accurately model the rise in average global temperature of the last 50 years, while the models are pretty accurate for the hundreds of years before. If we add in anthorpogenic (ie: human) emissions, our models get more accurate and give a better fit for the last fifty years and the same accuracy for the time before that. If we add in the feedback mechanisms for anthropogenic emissions, our models are the most accurate. The scientific consensus is that global warming is happening to the best of our knowledge, and that to the best of our knowledge humans play a role in this. A further point worthy of notice is that a number of the scientific opponents against this consensus are funded by the oil industry.
A further interesting point is that, while CO2 levels have varied in the preceding thousands of years, they have never been as high as they are now. So while we do not know the causal relationship between temperature and CO2 levels in the past (which one causes the other) we do know that present levels far exceed levels in the past, and this is hard to explain using temperature fluctuations alone.
From what I have seen from the debate, I can gather the following. In the environmental health sciences, the consensus used is that global warming is happening and that human emissions play a part in it's occurrence. From what I can gather from the climatologic scientists I've read (although climatology is not my field, environmental health is), this is also the consensus within this discipline. Furhtermore, most things I've read from 'climate change skeptics' is on a scientific level bordering on the creationist folly. |
Tom
`Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, `if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.'
-Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Caroll- |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2005 : 10:06:11 [Permalink]
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quote:
Furhtermore, most things I've read from 'climate change skeptics' is on a scientific level bordering on the creationist folly.
I have a friend, who is a Republican and very religious (not crazy fundie/rapture religious, but a "true believer" none the less).
He is also a TX rancher. (big suprise, I know). He was extremely pissed off by some of the environmental regulations set up by Clinton/Gore that cost many farmers a significant ammount of $$ to implement. Some of his associates were put out of business by the cost.
Now, he is so rabidly against any kind of environmental regulation that it's impossible to even have a conversation with him about it. His comeback for global warming is to blame the volcanos, as they dump more CO2 into the air than humans do. Nothing you say can convince him that there is even a possibility that humans are responsible for any of the increase in temp.
When the majority of the country believes the republican spin on this issue, there isn't much that the sane among us can do.
Me, I just hope I live long enough to see some significant geography changes from water expansion as the average temp increases.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Tim
SFN Regular
USA
775 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2005 : 10:12:16 [Permalink]
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We do little about environmental problems simply because we will most likely never see the results of our actions. A bunch of mad scientists screaming that the sky is falling is not a good enough reason to walk to the store, separate our garbage or turn the thermostat down a few degrees, least of all drive around in a compact car!
We're no better. When we walk every afternoon, we don't just step out the front door and walk around the neighborhhod. We drive four miles to the park and use the walking path so we can be entertained by squirrels, cypress trees, flowers and wading birds.
At lest, the Christians can rationalize their destructive behavior. Most of the rest of us are just too self-centered. |
"We got an issue in America. Too many good docs are gettin' out of business. Too many OB/GYNs aren't able to practice their -- their love with women all across this country." Dubya in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 9/6/2004
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Tim
SFN Regular
USA
775 Posts |
Posted - 02/04/2005 : 10:17:34 [Permalink]
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quote:
Posted by Dude
Me, I just hope I live long enough to see some significant geography changes from water expansion as the average temp increases.
Man...I hope not. My house is on an island in the swamp a few miles from the Gulf. The only thing that keeps the water out now is a sea wall along the river and a levy around the rest of the town. Localized flooding around here is not big news. I wonder if the disappearance of my hometown would make the news. |
"We got an issue in America. Too many good docs are gettin' out of business. Too many OB/GYNs aren't able to practice their -- their love with women all across this country." Dubya in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, 9/6/2004
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