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 Noah and family tree: need math help
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 11/02/2005 :  23:46:58  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
I just came to think of something...

Suppose for a moment that Creationists are right, and the world population are decendants of Noah's sons, and their wives.
When they have children, their chromosomes are mixed.
How many different chromosome-combinations would there be?

Basically, all living males would have inherited one of three available Y-chromosomes (unless Noah had more sons after the flood, but my memory is fuzzy about that). Tracing linage back should be a breeze.

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ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  01:04:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Basically, all living males would have inherited one of three available Y-chromosomes...


What about those double-Y ("super male") guys a few sociology/anthropology types were speculating about back in the 60s (I seem to recall there were questions about their statistics and the issue faded-away, but they suggested they were over-represented in the prison populations, and that kind of thing.) Maybe Noah was one, who knows?

Ron White
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woolytoad
Skeptic Friend

313 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  01:45:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send woolytoad a Private Message
Make the problem simpler and take it back to Adam and Eve. Eve was made from Adam, so there is 1 X and 1 Y. We should all look almost exactly alike.
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  01:49:30   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
I'm sure if you did the math it wouldn't come out right since the current human population dwindled to a few thousand members about 100,000 years ago, give or take 20,000 years depending on the accuracy of my memory, and has grown to over 6 billion, give or take a billion, again, depending on the accuracy of my memory.

But gee Dr M, do you really think it matters to the Bible literalists given that so many other things in the Noah story are contradicted by evidence as well. I mean really! How about the math of how many pairs of animal species you could fit inside those 400 cubits or whatever the size of the boat was supposed to be. The birds alone wouldn't even fit, let alone all the other animal species.
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Siberia
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Brazil
2322 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  06:05:35   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Siberia's Homepage  Send Siberia an AOL message  Send Siberia a Yahoo! Message Send Siberia a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by ronnywhite

quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Basically, all living males would have inherited one of three available Y-chromosomes...


What about those double-Y ("super male") guys a few sociology/anthropology types were speculating about back in the 60s (I seem to recall there were questions about their statistics and the issue faded-away, but they suggested they were over-represented in the prison populations, and that kind of thing.) Maybe Noah was one, who knows?



You mean the XYY syndrome.

"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
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Valiant Dancer
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USA
4826 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  06:56:42   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Valiant Dancer's Homepage Send Valiant Dancer a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by woolytoad

Make the problem simpler and take it back to Adam and Eve. Eve was made from Adam, so there is 1 X and 1 Y. We should all look almost exactly alike.



Nope. God made others. To whit, after Cain slew Able, he took a wife from the land of Nod.

Doc's right, you'd have to go back to Noah and his children and their spouses for the available gene pool.

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markie
Skeptic Friend

Canada
356 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  08:56:11   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send markie a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Suppose for a moment that Creationists are right, and the world population are decendants of Noah's sons, and their wives.
When they have children, their chromosomes are mixed.
How many different chromosome-combinations would there be?


How many unique chromosome combinations, it is impossible to tell. For instance, assuming original maximum chromosome diversity, any two humans can yield 2^46 unique chromosome combinations in their offspring. That is roughly sixty million million possibilities.

The problem is, with Noah's supposed sons and their wives we cannot assume original maximum chromosome diversity since Noah's sons would have shared chromosomes. How many, it is impossible to tell. Any two boy brothers have a one in 2^45 chance that, apart from their shared y chromosome (inheritted from their father) they share no other chromosomes in common. Also, two brothers also have a one in 2^45 chance that their chromosomes are all the same. The reality is somewhere between those two extremes, so it is pretty uncertain.

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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  09:17:37   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
You're right Markie... I was rather tired when I wrote the post, I missed a few things. The Y-chromosomes of Noah's sons would be the same.

And half of the chromosomes in each son would come from Noah, thereby greatly decreasing the number of unique combinations possible. None the less, the probability that the available combinations are far more than the number of people that have ever lived is very high.

Still, the Discovery Institute can, should they wish to actually perform research, test the evolution rate of human genes by comparing the genetic differences of Y-chromosomes.
Assuming that Noah was the father of all currently living being, the mutation rate would be great indeed.

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ronnywhite
SFN Regular

501 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  11:05:10   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ronnywhite a Private Message
(RE XYY Syndrome) I thought it might be "reasonable" to assume God would make more of His favorite people "super males." :)

Seriously, Dr.M has an interesting thought, though. It seems like after N generations the genetic picture would begin to get pretty distorted as has been noted, but as we continue to understand the functions of parts of the genome better, it might actually be possible to make a few deductions from that kind of thinking through back-calculation... as Dr M suggests, if we can "quantify" these characters into a genetic-map of chromosomes, maybe we could fill-in a few missing pieces, at minimum with some degree of statistical confidence. From what we know (but not at this point in time) about the genome, and what we "know" (in quotes!) about these characters from the Bible, other conclusions might be inferred.

I can't comment further, though, because I've never paid the Bible much attention (beyond being forced to learn the basics.) Frankly, as far as all "Bible computing" goes, I think "perfectly good pieces of silicon" can be put to better uses, as I consider the Bible to be essentially a highly-celebrated work of fiction, and maybe a sociological oddity, but little more. It's "based on" true stories? Well, just how "loosely?" Steven King could say "Salem's Lot" was "based on a true story" if a "town bully" he remembered inspired the big-green-vampire : )

Ron White
Edited by - ronnywhite on 11/03/2005 11:08:39
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  11:11:36   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message
Didnt noah and the early people live for hundreds of years each? how much of the 6000 years was made up of these super youthful folks...

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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Hawks
SFN Regular

Canada
1383 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  14:58:48   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Hawks's Homepage Send Hawks a Private Message
quote:
Didnt noah and the early people live for hundreds of years each? how much of the 6000 years was made up of these super youthful folks...
900 years, I seem to remember. But then, as we all know, the water canopy disappeared, oxygen concentrations fell and people started dying younger (in spite of oxygen being a probable cause of ageing).

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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  15:39:59   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
I saw a web-site that made a verv convincing case of the age of Noah and his peers being translation errors. I can't find the site right now though.

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Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

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Siberia
SFN Addict

Brazil
2322 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  15:44:46   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Siberia's Homepage  Send Siberia an AOL message  Send Siberia a Yahoo! Message Send Siberia a Private Message
It's in one of your summaries, dear About a month ago.

"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa

"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2005 :  17:27:17   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Siberia

It's in one of your summaries, dear About a month ago.


Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26020 Posts

Posted - 11/05/2005 :  20:40:31   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by markie

How many unique chromosome combinations, it is impossible to tell. For instance, assuming original maximum chromosome diversity, any two humans can yield 2^46 unique chromosome combinations in their offspring. That is roughly sixty million million possibilities.

The problem is, with Noah's supposed sons and their wives we cannot assume original maximum chromosome diversity since Noah's sons would have shared chromosomes. How many, it is impossible to tell. Any two boy brothers have a one in 2^45 chance that, apart from their shared y chromosome (inheritted from their father) they share no other chromosomes in common. Also, two brothers also have a one in 2^45 chance that their chromosomes are all the same. The reality is somewhere between those two extremes, so it is pretty uncertain.
The problem is even more intractable than you describe, markie.

Genetic recombination isn't limited to chromosomes, otherwise we'd know that each of Noah's sons had one copy of chromosome 13 (for example) from Noah and one from his wife (since egg and sperm only have one copy each). Instead, recombination goes much deeper, wherein each individual chromosome is chopped up and randomly recombined. Each of the pair making up chromosome 13 (and nearly all others) is half mom and half dad.

Except for two things. The Y chromosome, when present, is entirely dad. And mitochondrial DNA is entirely mom.

Using those two facts, along with observed mutation rates, geneticists have, indeed, identified when "Mitochondrial Eve" lived (for our current population). She lived about 150,000 years ago. All mitochondrial DNA now extant in humans came from her.

But, since Noah's sons' wives (supposedly) were of different families, mitochondrial DNA doesn't tell us much about the Flood story. However, "Y-chromosomal Adam" should pinpoint the Flood in time, since only Noah's Y chromosome survived the deluge for humans (granting validity of the Bible story for a moment). Y-chromosomal Adam lived between 60 and 80 thousand years ago, given the current population. Noah must have lived within this time.

But, back to the mothers. Despite the fact that each of Noah's sons shared 50% of their DNA with their brothers (different sets of 1.5 billion base pairs for each pair of siblings), all of that DNA came from either Noah or his wife (assuming Noah's wife didn't cheat on him). Noah's sons, in other words, did nothing to increase the diversity of the human gene pool themselves (except, possibily, for a single base-pair mutation each). Their wives, though, weren't from Noah's family (well, let's assume that, also). If the Bible is correct, then all current human DNA has come from one of five distinct sets: Noah, his wife and the wives of his sons. Everything since then has been a mixing of those five sets, with an average of one mutation per child. This should have been verified decades ago, were it true.

Also, since the chance for survival of a species drops dramatically with a population less than 200 individuals, there must have been many more miracles unrecorded in the Bible wherein God ensures the continuation of this dramatically inbred population (actually, all of the dramatically inbred populations, since Noah didn't carry 200 individuals of any species on the Ark).

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Hawks
SFN Regular

Canada
1383 Posts

Posted - 11/06/2005 :  13:58:50   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Hawks's Homepage Send Hawks a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
Except for two things. The Y chromosome, when present, is entirely dad. And mitochondrial DNA is entirely mom.

The telomeric regions of Y can actually recombine with X. The statement that mtDNA comes entirely from mom is a bit contentious nowadays. Seems like the father can pass his on, at least sometimes (see Mitochondrial Steve: paternal inheritance of mitochondria in humans. Bromham et al. Trends in ecology and evolution. Jan 2003)

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