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 "Peak Oil" crisis or not
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JohnOAS
SFN Regular

Australia
800 Posts

Posted - 01/07/2006 :  23:11:18  Show Profile  Visit JohnOAS's Homepage Send JohnOAS a Private Message
This is an edited version of a message I posted in another forum (www.skeptictank.org), and one of your members suggested I post it here. Thanks Ricky.

I'm not sure that this is entirely the right place to post this, but it's as close a fit as I can find at the moment.

I've heard and read a fair bit of late about "peak oil" and the various predictions about when it has/will occur, and the consequences. There's quite a bit of info out there on the web (some of them a very good fit for this conspiracy forum), but not much that seems very balanced, and I've seen nothing on the various skeptical / scientific sites I frequent.

Before passing judgement on what I've seen/read thus far, I was wondering if any fellow skeptics had done much research or looked into the whole thing. Any pointers/opinions welcome.

John's just this guy, you know.

Edited by - JohnOAS on 01/08/2006 05:12:26

filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2006 :  04:13:35   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Welcome to SFN, JohnOAS!

Y'know, now that you've got me to thinking about it, there's not really a hell of a lot of detailed information out there, at least not in popular publication.

Like yourself, I've read that we've reached peak oil and we're-all-gonna-die, and then, almost on the same page, that there's still plenty left to burn up, so-quit-worrying-about-it. In all truth: I don't know. I do know that the world has become far too dependant on oil, a finite substance, and when/if it finally runs low, we're in a lot of trouble.

Wouldn't it be a jest of cosmic proportions if the Apocolypse turned out to be simply dry fuel tanks, rather than the yen-shee induced fantasy that the devout so continually lay upon us?

As for the "price at the pump," I think we're being seriously ENRONed, and the moral of that item is:

Don't elect a former petroleum executive, however inept, to any office higher than Assistant Secretary to the Honey-Dipper, and even at that, don't let the fucker anywhere near the till.






"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2006 :  05:31:36   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message
Well...

Oil IS a finite resource.

But....

The methods for extracting it from the ground are refined and improved every year.

The ammount, to date, that can be extracted is enough to meet demand... so we haven't hit that production peak just yet.

The ammount of money being spent to research alternate energy sources goes up every year, even with W and cronies in power.

Nobody knows, exactly, when we will hit this oil production peak, or if it will even be relevent when it occurs.

About the only solid conclusion I can draw from this is that non-oil energy cources will be a good long-term investment.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2006 :  14:04:53   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
CSPAN had a person speaking at WA State University on this topic just yesterday. It was very compelling. Sorry I can't say much else about the speaker, I'll check and add more later.

We all know the oil will run out. What he stated was that the mechanism for estimating what is left is faulty and we've reached peak production about now. After production peaks the curve drops much more sharply than it rose.

Oil is mainly our fuel source for transportation so that is where we need to concentrate our conservation efforts. But it won't happen in today's media controlled environment.

I'm going to see Syriana hopefully this week. Cloney has a similar message. We need a Manhattan Project for alternative energy and a shift to local production to decrease transportation of goods costs.

Edited by - beskeptigal on 01/08/2006 14:17:41
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2006 :  14:25:08   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
Apparently it was Matthew Simmons

pdf slide presentation of the talk, in Power Point I presume.

The site with the pdf link in case you can't open that one.

The title of the link, about halfway down the page in the above link.

Today's Energy Reality: “We Are In A Deep Hole” World Affairs Council, Washington State University Conference, and The Rotary Club of Denver
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JohnOAS
SFN Regular

Australia
800 Posts

Posted - 01/12/2006 :  22:33:57   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit JohnOAS's Homepage Send JohnOAS a Private Message
Thanks for the feedback guys, especially the links. The degree to which many suppliers are masking their reserve stockpiles and future estimated capactities was a little surprising. It'll be an interesting one to watch, assuming the government sponsored brainwashing devices don't get us first.

To use an appropriate quote (Sorry, I don't know the source), "I used to be uncertain, but now I'm not so sure." At least I'm in good company.

John's just this guy, you know.
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 01/13/2006 :  02:26:59   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by JohnOAS

Thanks for the feedback guys, especially the links. ...

You're welcome, and welcome to the board while I'm at it.
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