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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
 Posted - 10/09/2006 : 20:16:55 [Permalink]
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Original Intent wrote: quote:
For dealing with idiots like Kim Jung, you need Teddy Rosevelt "big stick" not a Bush "big mouth."
I know what you mean in principle, but exactly how do you mean that in reality? NK has enough missiles pointed at Seoul to flatten a city of 13 million people - not to mention all the US and ROK soldiers on the DMZ would would be a mere speedbump in an initial attack. I don't think any sort of military intervention would be worth the inevitable massive amount of carnage. Kim Jung Il has made statements to his own people about how the majority of North Koreans are expendable; they've actually calculated how many of them need to survive to keep the nation intact. They really really don't care about loss of human life, and they have a lot of bad weapons, so provoking them - even though we'd ultimately win - sounds like a pretty bad idea to me.
Neurosis wrote: quote:
So you would rather they kept them hush, hush because?
Not hush hush as in nobody knows, but rather hush hush in the Israel sense. Not official. It makes a big difference politically. However, don't ignore my argument in its entirety - part of my problem with Bush is that he sped-up the whole North Korea developing nukes process. The regime got desperate, and when they are desperate they go for the big hand: nukes. We see Iran doing the same thing. At first glance it seems absurd that they would do this so out in the open - so obviously and defiantly. (I know, I know, they say it is for energy, but they aren't exactly fooling anyone.) Nukes are incredible leverage. The big powers say the smaller, less trustworthy powers can't have them, but once they do, the cost of taking those countries down is just too high.
quote:
I understand your argument against the nondiplomacy of Bush's regime, but NK would and did violate the treaty regardless of Diplomacy. In thinking of WWII were Hitler ignored diplomacy yet fiegned diplomacy with a crooked smile, this is a similar case and would have been even more similar in the face of real diplomacy.
I don't think that is a good comparison. The balances of power aren't even remotely the same. |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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| Edited by - marfknox on 10/09/2006 20:18:30 |
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 06:04:02 [Permalink]
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Bah! I don't blame Clinton or Bush. You might as well blame the moon for what Kim does. He's a megolamaniacal nutjob. He is going to pursue a nuclear program no matter what anyone does. He sees what being a nuclear power did for China, so no amount of candy and cigarettes is going to deter him.
As for the small yield, Kim does not have the infrastructure to create anything larger. It takes several years to develop enough uranium to make a bomb with the facilities at his disposal.
It's possible it was a hoax. But if it is determined it actually was a nuclear bomb, it will be even more important to determine if it was a uranium or a plutonium bomb.
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| Edited by - Luke T. on 10/10/2006 06:05:12 |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 07:07:19 [Permalink]
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This is what a war with the DPRK would look like,
The US bombs the hell out of the whole country killing millions, every major city in both Koreas is totally destroyed. The US would avoid ground troops at all costs due to the fact that the DPRK has an army that would kick our collective asses from here to next sunday. Hell South Koreas army could kick our asses too.
Edit: also many missles could be fired at Japan, DPRK wont go out without sticking it to the Japanese in some way. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
| Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 10/10/2006 07:31:39 |
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Original_Intent
SFN Regular
USA
609 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 07:16:18 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
Original Intent wrote: quote:
For dealing with idiots like Kim Jung, you need Teddy Rosevelt "big stick" not a Bush "big mouth."
I know what you mean in principle, but exactly how do you mean that in reality? NK has enough missiles pointed at Seoul to flatten a city of 13 million people - not to mention all the US and ROK soldiers on the DMZ would would be a mere speedbump in an initial attack. I don't think any sort of military intervention would be worth the inevitable massive amount of carnage. Kim Jung Il has made statements to his own people about how the majority of North Koreans are expendable; they've actually calculated how many of them need to survive to keep the nation intact. They really really don't care about loss of human life, and they have a lot of bad weapons, so provoking them - even though we'd ultimately win - sounds like a pretty bad idea to me.
In essence, the troops are the big stick. Leave Korea alone. Kim would sacrifice a lot of folks, but he won't sacrifice himself or the entire nation. If he came across, by the time it was over, there wouldn't be enough left to run anything.
The troops would be overrun, 37K+ US, 600K+ SOuth Koreans, and a mix of others under the UN flag. It would be terribly tragic, and Seoul would be devestated. But in the end Kim knows he losses everything.
Peace
Joe
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 09:09:12 [Permalink]
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Luke wrote: quote:
You might as well blame the moon for what Kim does. He's a megolamaniacal nutjob. He is going to pursue a nuclear program no matter what anyone does. He sees what being a nuclear power did for China, so no amount of candy and cigarettes is going to deter him.
What naive balderdash! You make it sound like the North Korean government is run by ibecils. They know damn well what they are doing, just like Iran knows damn well what it is doing. Why do you think we haven't attacked NK even knowing for years that they were building nukes? It was too risky, and they know it. They are playing their hand so well! The fuckers are doing a very good job of keeping their sick regime intacked, and that is exactly their goal. And the nutjob image is exactly the thing to project, because it scares people if they think NK is so unpredictable. If Kim is a real nutjob, he's a pretty smart and ballsy one. |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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| Edited by - marfknox on 10/10/2006 09:09:40 |
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 09:13:01 [Permalink]
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Joe wrote: quote:
In essence, the troops are the big stick. Leave Korea alone. Kim would sacrifice a lot of folks, but he won't sacrifice himself or the entire nation. If he came across, by the time it was over, there wouldn't be enough left to run anything.
The troops would be overrun, 37K+ US, 600K+ SOuth Koreans, and a mix of others under the UN flag. It would be terribly tragic, and Seoul would be devestated. But in the end Kim knows he losses everything.
That doesn't sound like any kind of stick to me - it sounds like a stand-off. We don't attack them because we don't want millions of dead people. They don't attack us because they don't want to lose their regime. Sounds like their stick is just as big as ours. |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 11:37:57 [Permalink]
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North Korea's only big stick until yesterday was China.
Kim is a loon! He claims to have written 1500 books while in college, and shot five holes-in-one on the golf course his first try. Many other such legends are promulgated by the Dear Leader.
Whackjob.
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Gorgo
SFN Die Hard
USA
5310 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 11:46:39 [Permalink]
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I think it's definitely time to get hysterical about what the mainstream media tells us about Korea's threat to the Jesus and all the saints, and that we believe all the psychoanalysis that is shoved down our throats about every third-world leader that didn't give all its orphanages and rice fields to transnational corporations.
That always makes the world a better place. |
I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears
But it's alright-
Jerry Garcia
Robert Hunter
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:05:36 [Permalink]
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I think it is time we downplay the evils of North Korea to make it easier to make it look morally equivalent to the US.
Bush = Kim Jong-Il
Whatever North Korea or comets do, it is somehow Bush's fault.
Check.
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@tomic
Administrator
USA
4607 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:06:04 [Permalink]
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I am still holding out for proof an actual atomic blast took place. It would be a lot cheaper to fake nuclear blasts than to produce real ones. It wasn't that long ago that North Korea detonated a conventional explosive large enough to scare people for a while. We are pretty sure that a large explosion happened. What's not at all clear is what kind of explosion took place. North Korea may be creating the biggest hoax in history by deliberately making it appear as though they have nukes. The problem is that there are a set of premises that don't necessarily lead to one conclusion. They may be producing bomb-grade material, they may detonate large explosions underground, they may talk the talk, but without more than that we can only guess.
I think that if North Korea had nuclear capability they would have conducted a test above the ground so that there was no doubt.
@ |
Gravity, not just a good idea...it's the law!
Sportsbettingacumen.com: The science of sports betting |
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:09:45 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by @tomic
I presonally feel that if North Korea had nuclear capability they would have conducted a test above the ground so that there was no doubt.
Yeah. Radiate the population with fallout so there is no doubt.
Oops! Sorry about the leakover, China! Guess we should have checked the weather report for the prevailing winds.
Above ground tests are banned.
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Gorgo
SFN Die Hard
USA
5310 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:29:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Luke T.
I think it is time we downplay the evils of North Korea to make it easier to make it look morally equivalent to the US.
Bush = Kim Jong-Il
Whatever North Korea or comets do, it is somehow Bush's fault.
Check.
I know the U.S. government lies and demonizes (and praises) third world leaders. I suppose someday they might be right about one of them.
I'm not saying that any of this is a good thing. I'm just saying let's wait until the bullshit settles a little before we get too hysterical about it. |
I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears
But it's alright-
Jerry Garcia
Robert Hunter
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:34:00 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
Not hush hush as in nobody knows, but rather hush hush in the Israel sense. Not official. It makes a big difference politically. However, don't ignore my argument in its entirety - part of my problem with Bush is that he sped-up the whole North Korea developing nukes process. The regime got desperate, and when they are desperate they go for the big hand: nukes. We see Iran doing the same thing. At first glance it seems absurd that they would do this so out in the open - so obviously and defiantly. (I know, I know, they say it is for energy, but they aren't exactly fooling anyone.) Nukes are incredible leverage. The big powers say the smaller, less trustworthy powers can't have them, but once they do, the cost of taking those countries down is just too high.
I get that it spead the process due to the desperation, but what I mean is that eventually the tortoise finishes the race. Small powers like NK (and others) will never be content if they are not able to compete on the big boy level and that means nukes. Diplomacy works to buy us time in the race but as I said it will not end it. In your own words you state that nukes make a small country a big threat and that is within their politcal agenda. No country would rather not have nukes. Would you ever expect the US (or any other 1st world) to disarm in the name of peace? The threat remains to all countries so long as any one has nukes. I agree with your point that diplomacy is what keeps us civil and that Bush is doing a piss poor job of diplomacy, but we must not forget that NK is (and would have been) a threat under any president. The question does remain as to what the best course of action is now.
quote:
I don't think that is a good comparison. The balances of power aren't even remotely the same.
Sure the powers are not comparable but the threat is. I would consider NK with nukes more of a threat to the world than WWII Germany ever was during the whole conflict when one considers national alliances (the possibility of nuke sales) and the massive destruction force of even a small nuclear weapon. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:37:07 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
Joe wrote: quote:
In essence, the troops are the big stick. Leave Korea alone. Kim would sacrifice a lot of folks, but he won't sacrifice himself or the entire nation. If he came across, by the time it was over, there wouldn't be enough left to run anything.
The troops would be overrun, 37K+ US, 600K+ SOuth Koreans, and a mix of others under the UN flag. It would be terribly tragic, and Seoul would be devestated. But in the end Kim knows he losses everything.
That doesn't sound like any kind of stick to me - it sounds like a stand-off. We don't attack them because we don't want millions of dead people. They don't attack us because they don't want to lose their regime. Sounds like their stick is just as big as ours.
Of course, that is what they are going for in all of this. Power, or the illusion of it. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2006 : 12:40:30 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by @tomic
I am still holding out for proof an actual atomic blast took place. It would be a lot cheaper to fake nuclear blasts than to produce real ones. It wasn't that long ago that North Korea detonated a conventional explosive large enough to scare people for a while. We are pretty sure that a large explosion happened. What's not at all clear is what kind of explosion took place. North Korea may be creating the biggest hoax in history by deliberately making it appear as though they have nukes. The problem is that there are a set of premises that don't necessarily lead to one conclusion. They may be producing bomb-grade material, they may detonate large explosions underground, they may talk the talk, but without more than that we can only guess.
I presonally feel that if North Korea had nuclear capability they would have conducted a test above the ground so that there was no doubt.
@
I think we are all waiting for that, but in the meantime it is probably a good idea to keep "real nuclear test" on the table. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
- Homer Simpson
[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
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