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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26020 Posts

Posted - 09/10/2014 :  19:27:56  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message  Reply with Quote
From Jamie Bernstein, So You Want to Understand Bayes' Theorem and/or Look at Photos of Cats:
Back in 2010, researcher Daryl Bem at Cornell University supposedly proved that psychic precognition exists. He did a variety of tests on college students in which he reversed some common psychological tests and found that the students were able to predict something that had not yet happened. For example, he put pornographic photos behind one of two curtains. The students had to guess which curtain the photo was behind before seeing the answer and they were correct a statistically significant amount of the time. When statisticians use the term “statistically significant” they are typically referring to the p-value. If the study had a p-value cut-off of 5%, that would mean that if students were truly guessing randomly and did not have any psychic powers, they would still “pass” the test 5% of the time just by coincidence...
And so it begins.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
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Why not question something for a change?
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ThorGoLucky
Snuggle Wolf

USA
1486 Posts

Posted - 09/29/2014 :  15:08:42   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit ThorGoLucky's Homepage Send ThorGoLucky a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Richard Carrier wrote about Bayesian reasoning in determining the primary use of ancient Roman dodecahedrons.

http://freethoughtblogs.com/carrier/archives/5675
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