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Plyss
Skeptic Friend
Netherlands
231 Posts |
 Posted - 09/23/2004 : 02:16:28 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigal
The other one is a bit harder to explain. It's the lady I mentioned that found the murdered nurse. That lady had to drive all the way up a canyon road, to a precise spot, where white shoes were the thing that she and her daughter saw that was the body. They didn't drive up several canyons, only the right one. They didn't stop and look in multiple places. She wasn't selling her services. It was so uncanny the police held her for a day or so in jail as an accomplice. Later when the killers were caught, there wasn't any connection to the woman with the vision.
Shermer would still call this a coincidence.
So what do you think? Is there a test for when such a random event exceeds coincidence?
Maybe we could try and apply Dembski's Explanatory Filer to this task ;)
On a more serious note, if the event is not a coincidence my best guess would still be a non-supernatural explanation. Even if the police were unable to show any relation between the psychic and the killers doesn't mean none existed. Also, there are myriad ways the psychic could have come by the information of the body being present at that precise location that do not involve supernatural means.
Plyss |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 03:14:59 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigal
The other one is a bit harder to explain. It's the lady I mentioned that found the murdered nurse. That lady had to drive all the way up a canyon road, to a precise spot, where white shoes were the thing that she and her daughter saw that was the body. They didn't drive up several canyons, only the right one. They didn't stop and look in multiple places. She wasn't selling her services. It was so uncanny the police held her for a day or so in jail as an accomplice. Later when the killers were caught, there wasn't any connection to the woman with the vision.
Shermer would still call this a coincidence.
So what do you think? Is there a test for when such a random event exceeds coincidence?
I think it still falls into the 'Blind Hog' catagory (even a blind hog will find an acorn now and then).
As I wasn't there and don't know anyone reliable who was, I can only conjecture, but I'd think that as the lady was familiar with the area, that particular canyon seemed, perhaps in the back of her mind, a likely place. She was operating on a 'feeling' that paid off. The 'white shoes' part was either blather or self-delusion.
That she asked for no payment is not at all unusual. A great many psychics, again particularly dowsers, don't. They consider it to be sharing their gift with the world. These genuinely believe that they have the ability and if they get one good hit, that is the one we hear about. The miss' don't count, and thus is the myth perpetuated.
I don't know of any sort of coincidence test. I'm not even sure such a thing is possible due to the many, random factors surrounding each event.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 05:47:38 [Permalink]
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| Beskeptical I did not see the show. Could you please give some more info on who the LADYS were, so that I could research this. From the description you gave (I assume from the show) this seems more than just coincidence. |
If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 11:56:30 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Kil
quote:
I don't believe for a second there's ever been a legitimate psychic.
I knew you were going to say that....
Now that's spooky.
EDIT: BTW, anyone else find Dude's signature quote from Frank Zappa offensive? |
-Chaloobi
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| Edited by - chaloobi on 09/23/2004 11:58:08 |
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 12:35:20 [Permalink]
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I don't find it offensive. I can understand how it could be offensive. If my son used that language around the house I would be pretty upset. Of course I'm sure he uses that language with his friends, but I guess that is the point, it should be used in the appropriate situations.
The quote actually kind of cracks me up, only because I think of Frank saying it.
Is anyone ancient enough (like me) to remember seeing Frank Zappa on Saturday Night Live. I liked the skit where he was dating the Coneheads daughter and he fit right in with the family. |
If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 13:07:32 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by beskeptigal
But you all are not being good skeptics here just denying the possibility outright of unexplained phenomena having an as yet unexplained mechanism of action.
I'm not convinced there even is a "unexplained phenomenon" here that needs explaining. That's playing into their hands. First things first, we should ask if what they [psychics] did is at all incredible. If it's incredibly ordinary, there is no reason to further speculate on extraordinary mechanisms.
quote:
Shermer would still call this a coincidence. So what do you think?
Shermer would call things like dreaming about a friend and having him call you coincidences. I don't think he ever alleges that all reported psychic claims can be dismissed as coincidence.
The pickup story is pretty well debunked from what Furshur posted. Filthy brings up a good point about how a simple familiarity with the local terrain could lead to well-educated guesses in the second case.
Bottom line, there is no way to tell from television shows what pieces of information are being withheld. Often when someone is given access to what the psychics really "predicted," it either 1) is far more vague than useful and doesn't warrent being credited as helpful in the search, or 2) was a regurgitation of information priorly given to the psychic, or 3) was an educated guess based upon prior information given to the psychic.
Find a case that isn't an example of 1, 2, or 3 and then we can begin to speculate on how the psychic was able to arrive at their conclusions.
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
| Edited by - H. Humbert on 09/23/2004 14:16:52 |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 09/23/2004 : 15:20:29 [Permalink]
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quote:
So what do you think? Is there a test for when such a random event exceeds coincidence?
If it can be repeated under controlled (or even stritcly observed) conditions.
Seriously, Zappa cracks me up. But if it's to over the top I'll take it out.... |
Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 09/24/2004 : 03:08:58 [Permalink]
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"The out-patients are out in force, I see." -- Tom Leher
quote:
NEW YORK — Amid the clamor one might expect in the presence of 100 psychics offering free readings in a New York City mall, clairvoyant Noreen Renier seemed removed from the hullabaloo.
The self-proclaimed psychic detective was obviously perplexed by the endless rows of psychics and the winding lines of people queuing up in search of a little peace of mind.
"I could never do my work in an environment like this," she said, stepping outside for a break and lighting up a Capri 125. "Too much noise, too much energy flying around."
Renier was a headliner of sorts at the aptly named "Psych-Out," a gathering of the nation's foremost, or perhaps most infamous, psychic investigators, clairvoyants, seers, holistic healers and channelers.
http://www.courttv.com/people/2004/0921/psychout_ctv.html
I'd liked to have attended that little group hug. I'd have liked for one of these grifter/whack-jobs to do a reading on me, hehe.
It is a sad commentary on the state of the media that this foolishness got any mention at all beyond the Weekly World News. It is even sadder that they had a good, public turnout. And sadder still that I and others, including you, actually read the article.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/24/2004 : 21:52:57 [Permalink]
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I totally agree with most of the points here.
The truck in the lake could have been a good guess. You have to wonder why the police hadn't thought the same thing, but it wouldn't be the first time I suppose?
TV versions edit too much out to be able to make a real assessment. I think that explains almost all the TV psychic and ghost encounters. But, Humbert, you are still dismissing the possibility of an event occurring because there is no evidence it has occurred. I could write pages on that topic but it would be hijacking the thread.
Fraud could always be the answer. In the case of Etta Smith, fraud really didn't seem to be behind it.
quote:
Dude: If it can be repeated under controlled (or even stritcly observed) conditions.
But what if it is a single occurrence or occurs without control over its initiation?
Here's some more information for you, furshur. I have seen this account before it was on psychic detective.
CNN transcript of interview with Etta Smith
quote:
ANNOUNCER: A nurse named Melanie Uribe vanishes on her way to work without any suspects or physical evidence. Los Angeles detectives are searching without a map for the missing woman. But one woman, Etta Smith, feels she knows exactly where Melanie Uribe is. How? A psychic vision supplied her with the exact location of the missing nurse.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GRACE: Welcome back to LARRY KING LIVE. I'm Nancy Grace from Court TV in for Larry tonight. I want to thank you for being with us. Tonight, violent crimes unsolved. Detectives left with no leads become desperate. I want to tell you about a case out of Spokane, Washington. A case that really defies logic. Take a listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: Etta doesn't know Melanie Urbie, but she's sure that the images flooding her mind are connected to her disappearance. Detective Ryan knows that every second counts in the hunt for a missing person. Could Etta Smith's psychic clues give them a much needed break in the case? Etta Smith's vision becomes a reality, when she sees the exact location flash in front of her eyes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's Lopez Canyon.
ANNOUNCER: Now, investigators left to make sense of a bizarre chain of events. A woman goes to the remote canyon and finds the body of a murder victim she claims she's never met. It seems like an improbable feat. So improbable, that Etta Smith becomes suspect No. 1 in the murder of Melanie Uribe.
Go to the link to read the rest, I didn't want to fill the board with the quote. And I think the host says Spokane but it happened in LA.
I don't see any evidence this lady had insider information. There isn't going to be any way to say absolutely she didn't know something. But let's assume for the moment she didn't.
Her 'psychic vision' of the body was unsolicited. She felt strongly enough about her feeling to go to the police which either says there was some unusual mental event or fraud.
And, she found the body. I see from the transcript it wasn't on the first stop. The tire tracks make coincidence higher on the list. If you got the right canyon by accident, the tire tracks might negate the need that 2 or more coincidences had to come together.
Well, it could be explainable, still, I would love to be able to evaluate some claim like this before it got distorted with the false memories of having a TV show made about it.
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 09/24/2004 : 22:25:46 [Permalink]
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beskeptigal wrote:quote:
But, Humbert, you are still dismissing the possibility of an event occurring because there is no evidence it has occurred.
Is it rational to think that an event occured which left no evidence of its occurence?quote:
I could write pages on that topic but it would be hijacking the thread.
Please, feel free to start a new thread. I am genuinely curious about your thoughts.quote:
Well, it could be explainable...
It doesn't have to be. Smith claims to have had a "psychic vision," but that isolated and unique occurence is unprovable. The fact that she found one body is not, by itself, evidence that she's got paranormal abilities. "We don't know why Smith found the body" is a rational position to take. "Smith is psychic" is not the sole alternative to "coincidence."
Heck, I could write pages on why "unexplained" doesn't automatically mean "evidence of the paranormal," but it's been done to death already. It's a false dichotomy, pure and simple. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/26/2004 : 02:12:34 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
beskeptigal wrote:quote:
But, Humbert, you are still dismissing the possibility of an event occurring because there is no evidence it has occurred.
Is it rational to think that an event occurred which left no evidence of its occurrence?
Perhaps I worded that poorly. We don't have evidence of life on other planets, yet. Anti-matter was not evidenced until the last century. Quantum mechanics is still offering up surprises. The particles that act in unison despite large spatial separation is still a mystery.
There have been instances of potential psychic occurrences. What we don't have yet is evidence any of the events occurred by other than 'normal' mechanisms. I certainly agree with your statement there are multiple possibilities to explain similar events.
That's why I posed the question, what evidence would it take to have some sort of psychic brain activity remain as the only plausible explanation? Again, besides something repeatable and testable since it may be difficult to recreate the circumstances artificially.
quote:
quote:
I could write pages on that topic but it would be hijacking the thread.
Please, feel free to start a new thread. I am genuinely curious about your thoughts.
Let me find some posts from an old thread on another BB and paste them to a new thread here. So I don't have to start from scratch. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 09/26/2004 : 13:54:24 [Permalink]
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beskeptigal wrote:quote:
Perhaps I worded that poorly. We don't have evidence of life on other planets, yet. Anti-matter was not evidenced until the last century. Quantum mechanics is still offering up surprises. The particles that act in unison despite large spatial separation is still a mystery.
Actually, all except the first were predicted by theory. And theory has it that, if there's nothing particularly "special" about Earth, then there should be life elsewhere.
We have no theory, nothing with which we can make predictions, that says "there should be psychic phenomena." We've observed nothing about the brain (or any other organ) which gives us even a solid base for speculation about psychicness. As a matter of fact, we've actually observed many things about human cognition which tell us that we are prone to view certain ordinary occurences as extra-ordinary, like our generally poor understanding of coincidence and statistics, or our keen ability for confirmation bias, or our desire for "something magical" in the universe (just to name three out of many examples).quote:
There have been instances of potential psychic occurrences. What we don't have yet is evidence any of the events occurred by other than 'normal' mechanisms.
And, again, we also lack any theory which tells us that we should be able to find such evidence.quote:
I certainly agree with your statement there are multiple possibilities to explain similar events.
More importantly, I was trying to get across that it is okay to say, "I don't know," especially in cases where the evidence which could point towards the real cause - no matter what that is - is lost to time, fraud, poor record-keeping, incompetence, or whatever.
Etta Smith's say-so is not extraordinary evidence, as there are tons of known frauds in the world who claim the same abilities. Independent evidence of her story appears to be largely lacking, and we can have no independent verification of what went on in her head. What we're left with is an unrepeatable, unconfirmable anecdote with a real, confirmed ending. But what actually happened before that ending is unknowable (and given the oddities of memory, may even be unknown to Smith by now).
The only reasonable answer to the question of whether the beginning and middle are true is "I don't know, but given the track record of psychics to date, the events probably weren't paranormal." Guessing that it may have been coincidence or luck is just that: guessing. Nobody has any evidence of that.
What's unfortunate is that a large number of people are unsatisfied with "I don't know." They think science should have the answers (though they spit on some of the answers science gives them - a nice double-standard), and when it fails, for whateve reason, they're willing to listen to people who have "answers," no matter how unlikely those answers may be.quote:
That's why I posed the question, what evidence would it take to have some sort of psychic brain activity remain as the only plausible explanation? Again, besides something repeatable and testable since it may be difficult to recreate the circumstances artificially.
Houdini had an answer for this, and my wife and I follow his (and Bess') example. We've got a code phrase that only the two of us know. It's a very odd phrase, sort of like "ballpeen teakettle" or "golden zebra." After one of us dies, if someone can tell us the code phrase, the survivor will know that a psychic really has made contact with "the other side." (Bess, even though thronged by psychics, never heard the code phrase from Harry.)
Obviously, someone could beat the two-billion-to-one odds and guess the correct two-word phrase, but they'd most likely start describing my wife (or me, depending) incorrectly. So, the code phrase isn't the only gate between credulity and rationalism, but it's a damn good start. We could, of course, make the phrase longer (I have no idea how long Houdini's phrase was), or use a language other than English, to up the odds even higher.
But, then again, people like John Edward claim that they only get vague pictoral information from beyond the grave, and so we decided to give them a fair shot by using a short phrase with concrete images. I'm convinced that if my wife can make contact with me after her death, through a psychic, then she'll sure fight to make sure I know it. Same if I go first. None of this namby-pamby "I'm at peace" crap for me, I'm going to let people know what I really think about being dead, if at all possible.
But that's only one example of a possible truly psychic encounter, and how it could be detected. Obviously, Etta Smith's case could not be "pre-controlled" in such a manner, and so would require different sorts of evidence to ensure that it could only be explained psychically. Various scenarios are going to need different kinds of proof. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard
USA
3834 Posts |
Posted - 09/27/2004 : 10:23:57 [Permalink]
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I agree with all that Dave except Etta's is not the only case of a very unusual psychic event. And, I agree it doesn't look too promising that any of the unexplained events are explained by psychic phenomena. And, non-psychic explanations are certainly much more likely.
But I still can't rule out the rare case of a real psychic event because the research has not been adequate to do so. What we need is to be able to evaluate such rare events before they are contaminated by interviews and 'after the fact' adjustments to the story and that's almost impossible to do. Also, unless you can rule out fraud, you could never say absolutely the event occurred. But that prejudices the data against a positive finding.
As to a mechanism of action, we have no theoretical basis for quantum particles to communicate instantaneously across distances, do we? Yet we observe the phenomena. Brain waves are measurable outside of the brain. So far they do not seem to contain specific data and are only a byproduct of electrical data exchange from brain cell to cell. But I can't say it's been proven the waves don't contain real data. It is only one possibility, though an unlikely one, but perhaps there are other mechanisms.
So I'm leaving the teensiest opening for such events to be psychic events, until further evaluation can show even those rare incidences to be mere coincidences or fraud or whatever else they end up being. Teensiest, Dave, don't start worrying about my skeptical nature. 
BTW, John Edwards is an expensive but very good grief counselor if you judge him by his results and not by concerns of fraud. I'm not sure how much harm is caused by believing your loved one is still around or believing that important thing you didn't get to say before someone died has been heard now. Person's calling themselves grief counselors charge just as much in some cases and don't get the best results for the money. And, certainly not many object to the church counseling people their loved one is with god and will be there when the counseled person dies.
I have to wonder, though, why his claim, "They're showing me pink roses and that's their way of saying...(whatever, I can't remember)", doesn't clue people in to the fact he's making it up. |
| Edited by - beskeptigal on 09/27/2004 10:28:41 |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 09/27/2004 : 11:29:02 [Permalink]
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beskeptigal wrote:quote:
I agree with all that Dave except Etta's is not the only case of a very unusual psychic event.
I certainly didn't mean to imply that it was the sole such case.quote:
And, I agree it doesn't look too promising that any of the unexplained events are explained by psychic phenomena. And, non-psychic explanations are certainly much more likely.
But I still can't rule out the rare case of a real psychic event because the research has not been adequate to do so.
I'm not saying that such should be ruled out, only that saying that an event is unexplained isn't evidence of any sort for psychic phenomena. "This is unexplained" doesn't mean, contrary to public opinion, "this is a psychic event."
As you also seem to agree, the real evidence of such cases is quickly made useless through a variety of accidental means (as well as, possibly, some purposeful ones). As you agree, this makes such cases impossible to verify or disprove in any meaningful way. And fraud has been so prevalent in such cases that those who intentionally used deception are the ones who've biased the field against positive findings. Largely, those people have been uninterested in more than lining their pockets, and certainly not interested in seeing the field open to honest and unprejudiced examination through scientific means.quote:
As to a mechanism of action, we have no theoretical basis for quantum particles to communicate instantaneously across distances, do we?
Yes, we do. "Quantum entanglement" is predicted by the theory, and recently verified.quote:
Yet we observe the phenomena.
Only recently.quote:
Brain waves are measurable outside of the brain. So far they do not seem to contain specific data and are only a byproduct of electrical data exchange from brain cell to cell. But I can't say it's been proven the waves don't contain real data. It is only one possibility, though an unlikely one, but perhaps there are other mechanisms.
Brain waves are ordinary electromagnetic radiation. They are extremely weak, omnidirectional, subject to interference from other sources (including other people), and follow a distance-squared law in terms of their reduction in strength as they travel through space. Given their extremely low frequencies - topping out in the teens of cycles per second - information transmitted via them would be similarly slow (at 20 Hz, an average page of text would take on the order of 512 seconds to send, or over 8-and-a-half minutes). Such radiation would also be stopped by walls, mountains, etc.
The claims made by psychics, remote viewers, etc. suggest that the above things are not true for their abilities. This would mean that normal, everyday brain waves cannot be the source of psychic abilities. Unfortunately, we cannot identify any form of radiation which follows the psychics' claims, nor can we identify any part of the brain which might be involved in creating it.quote:
So I'm leaving the teensiest opening for such events to be psychic events, until further evaluation can show even those rare incidences to be mere coincidences or fraud or whatever else they end up being. Teensiest, Dave, don't start worrying about my skeptical nature.
I'm not worried about your skepticism, beskeptigal. I'm concerned that you're not seeing that I, also, allow for that teensy possibility, but it would require - so far as I can tell - entirely new fields of both biology and physics before any such phenomena will be adequately described. That's how different these claims are from what we already know.
Again, that's not to say that it cannot happen, only that I believe the possibility is very close to zero. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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