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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4954 Posts

Posted - 03/09/2007 :  10:12:41  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I thought I'd create a thread where people can discuss their predictions over the year (perhaps this could be made as a sticky, too?). After two months, I haven't made any horrible blunders, but many predictions have yet to be tested.

For Question 1 (which countries will be officially renamed, or will break up into smaller countries), I said that none will be formed. So far, so good.

For Question 2 (about hurricanes), it's too early in the year; we'll have to wait until the late summer or early fall for this to be tested.

For Question 3 about earthquakes, I gave 35o N 68o E, which is in NE Afghanistan. So far, that area has been quiet. There's plenty of time to see if my prediction comes true.


I got screwed on Question 4 since Ford died a few days before 2007, meaning that I had to scratch him off my list and add a new name. So far, my list-- Castro, Bob Dole, Liz Taylor, John Updike, and Margaret Thatcher-- is all living.

Question 5 re terrorist attacks is probably the hardest to predict. I should have just mentioned some Mosque in Iraq and been done with it.

The summer's not here yet so Question 6 about movies will have to wait. But I still think Spiderman 3 will do it.

The energy market isn't quite stable, and Question 7 is by definition the last prediction we get to make. I put the price of oil on New Year's Day at almost $80. It's a far cry from now, but we'll see what happens.

My stock picks for Question 8 are mixed. Pfizer is down from about $26 to $25.30 and Viacom went from ca. $41 to $39, but Lockheed is up from $92 to $97. Again, though, there's plenty of time.

I have no idea about Question 9, and the best-selling video game system, but there's still the holiday season at the end of the year what will change these numbers.

And of course, for Question 10, Spring Training just started, so there's always hope that the O's will win the World Series!

Edited by - Cuneiformist on 03/09/2007 11:21:32

BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 03/09/2007 :  11:19:17   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message  Reply with Quote
The Nintendo Wii is the #1 seller so far this year. Pretty much everyone is failing the stock picks and the top earthquake is halfway between Japan and Alaska where nobody picked (even though it was the top spot last year)

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4954 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  12:40:40   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message  Reply with Quote
It's almost the end of the year, and for those of you interested, I thought I'd remind you of our contest from one year ago. (Also, do we want to do it again??)

Anyhow, as for how it's going-- well, I'm getting crushed. I got question 1 (which countries will be officially renamed, which countries will break up into smaller countries and if you are really psychic what new names will they have) correct (I guessed none).

Question 2, on hurricanes, was tough. I guessed Jerry (strongest) and Felix (most damage). According to NOAA, Jerry
BEGAN
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SINCE THE CYCLONE WAS WELL-INVOLVED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY...BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH. JERRY ACQUIRED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS VERY EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT IT NEVER GAINED ANY MORE STRENGTH.
So no luck there. But I may have gotten Felix right:
MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FELIX WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 130 DEATHS IN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE HURRICANE CAUSED MAJOR DAMAGE IN THE
LANDFALL AREA IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH NUMEROUS BUILDINGS
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND NORTH OF PUERTO
CABEZAS. ADDITIONAL DAMAGES OCCURRED DUE TO INLAND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FELIX ALSO PRODUCED MINOR DAMAGE ON
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.


For Question 3 about earthquakes, I guessed 35N 68E, which is in Afghanistan. But according to this list, the biggest thus far has been an 8.4 Southern Sumatera, Indonesia.

Question 4 was about celebrity deaths. My picks of Castro, Bob Dole, Liz Taylor, John Updike and Margaret Thatcher have all disappointed me by staying alive.

Question 5 about terrorism was a bust for me. My crystal ball told me some oil factory in Saudi Arabia was going to be blown up. Whatever.

I got Question 6 correct. Unless the latest Harry Potter film makes about a billion dollars in the next few weeks, Spiderman 3 will be the biggest grosser for the year.

Seems I was optimistic in my guess on Question 7 and the price of oil. If only it were $78.23!!

For stocks, I picked Pfizer, Lockheed-Martin, and Viacom. The first is a bust, the second a lock (up from $90 to $109!), and the third, barring a disaster, should also be up >5% be the end of the year.

On the video game machine question, I picked the PS3 largely because I had no idea how to say "Wii." If only my crystal ball had speakers.

And finally, for the wild card Question 10. I picked the Baltimore Oriels as World Series champs. What the hell-- it was close. They play in the same division as Boston, and they both start with "B" so maybe the crystal ball was just confused...
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pleco
SFN Addict

USA
2996 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  12:50:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit pleco's Homepage Send pleco a Private Message  Reply with Quote
From my predictions here are the ones I was close on (afaik)

Question 3 - I predicted "175 miles east north east of the coast of Sumatra (near the city of Medan)." Pretty close I think!

Question 4 - I only got 1 (Gerald Ford)

Question 8 - I got Google right. 1/3.

For Question 10 - I have no idea since I have no intent on reading anything by Ann Coulter - but I bet I'm right.


by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart.
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  13:23:57   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Quickly, since I have to leave.

1) Myanmar is the only country which renamed itself this year as far as I know.

2)hurricanes, dean was strongest and as far as I can tell the most damaging

3)earthquakes, One person is close to th 500km limit but not quite.

4) A few of the deadpoolers have been successful, like 3 hits out of 50

5)terrorist attacks, need to research

6) Pirates 3 was the top flick

7) everyone has the oil price lowballed so far

8) I am kicking ass in the stock picks, with priceline up 150%+ and nintendo over 100%+

9)We all failed to pick the top selling console, Nintendo DS will be #1 and I was the only one to pick the Wii which is a clear #2

10) I think the "pick something nobody would ever guess" question did us all in.

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  13:28:16   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message  Reply with Quote
P.S. Im gonna do next years contest in January, but this time I plan on removing my moron hat. The scoring for this year is subjective and unbalanced. Picking the top movie should not get you as many points as the earthquake question for example...also what to do if a stock splits into two entities like TYCO did this year. Oh well, the scoring may suck but at least the conclusion will be difinitive: none of us are psychic.

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4954 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  13:49:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf

Quickly, since I have to leave.

1) Myanmar is the only country which renamed itself this year as far as I know.

2)hurricanes, dean was strongest and as far as I can tell the most damaging

3)earthquakes, One person is close to th 500km limit but not quite.

4) A few of the deadpoolers have been successful, like 3 hits out of 50

5)terrorist attacks, need to research

6) Pirates 3 was the top flick

7) everyone has the oil price lowballed so far

8) I am kicking ass in the stock picks, with priceline up 150%+ and nintendo over 100%+

9)We all failed to pick the top selling console, Nintendo DS will be #1 and I was the only one to pick the Wii which is a clear #2

10) I think the "pick something nobody would ever guess" question did us all in.
I think my data are different. Boxofficemojo gives for 2007 Spiderman 3 as the top picture. Oh wait-- Spiderman 3 was only the top domestic picture; worldwide was Pirates. I see.

Moving on... as for the name issue, according to the CIA World Factbook,
since 1989 the military authorities in Burma have promoted the name Myanmar as a conventional name for their state; this decision was not approved by any sitting legislature in Burma, and the US Government did not adopt the name, which is a derivative of the Burmese short-form name Myanma Naingngandaw
. So it looks like there have been no name-changes, no?

As for the Hurricanes, I'm not convinced that Felix doesn't deserve both awards. There are probably ways to see if one Cat 5 storm is bigger than another, though, so that will have to be checked into. As for cost, Felix had 130 deaths, which is more than Dean but less than Noel. I'm having trouble with costs since the NOAA site only lists US damage. Humberto was the only one with significant US damage, but the prediction was for North America as a whole.

And as for the game consoles-- I foolishly limited myself to the conventional kind (which I got wrong anyhow). But I see now that the hand-held Nintento DS is going to be the biggest seller this year.

Damned crystal ball...
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26009 Posts

Posted - 12/14/2007 :  23:16:51   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I hereby nominate BigPapaSmurf as "Official Custodian and Regulator of Official SFN Prediction Contests Both Current and Future" 1. Can I get a second?

1. Mostly because this way, I don't have to remember them anymore.

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13463 Posts

Posted - 12/15/2007 :  00:48:44   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I second the motion. Motion carried...

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 12/17/2007 :  05:53:09   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Doh! I cant seem to find the info on the Myanmar renaming, it was something like "republic of Myanmar" I cant recall.

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4954 Posts

Posted - 12/17/2007 :  07:24:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf

Doh! I cant seem to find the info on the Myanmar renaming, it was something like "republic of Myanmar" I cant recall.
I actually vaguely recall this, now, too, but nothing turns up. I did a search through the NY Times for the last 6 months with no results. Later, I'll to the first part of 2007 and see if I can find anything.
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard

3192 Posts

Posted - 12/17/2007 :  07:35:12   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send BigPapaSmurf a Private Message  Reply with Quote
It's kinda like Prince re-naming himself and everyone ignoring him.

"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History

"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie

USA
4826 Posts

Posted - 12/17/2007 :  20:08:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Valiant Dancer's Homepage Send Valiant Dancer a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Well,

I seem to have gotten off to a roaring start.

But we all knew that if someone can claim to do psychic on command they're selling you shouldn't be buying.

Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils

Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion
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