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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
 Posted - 12/17/2007 : 15:02:08 [Permalink]
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Bill scott needs to watch this. Perhaps then he'll begin to understand why harping on the limits of scientific certainty is irrelevant to this discussion.
The rest of you should watch it anyway. :)
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
| Edited by - H. Humbert on 12/17/2007 15:02:53 |
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recurve boy
Skeptic Friend
Australia
53 Posts |
 Posted - 12/18/2007 : 04:29:16 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
I also worry about knee-jerk reactions where taxes and emissions are levied to the point where economies are damaged or destroyed, standard of livings go way down and developing third world nations are forced to stay third world.
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You'll note that emission targets for 3rd world nations are less 'strict' than for 1st world nations. I am pretty sure this has always been the case. There are several developing nations that have already ratified Kyoto. So I don't know where you are getting 'third world nations forced to stay third world' from.
There is also plenty of opportunity for 1st world countries to spend this tax on new energy sources. With "Peak Oil" looming, the countries with the new energy sources will have plenty of new industry. And I can finally have my Mr. Fusion!
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 06:21:44 [Permalink]
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Hmmmmm... why waste time in a MMGW conspiracy when starting wars is a much a better deal!
And Bill: selling crack to kids will not make you a powerful figure in the world. Regulating the illegal drug market and fighting a fake "war on drugs" will!
(And, of course, keeping people ignorant and superstitious the way islamic fundamentalists and christian fundamentalists do, will also make you powerful!)
Have a mate! |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 07:13:05 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Dave W. |
| And you called my appeal to your faith sensationalist. Sheesh! |
Because it was. Now who's failing crops, rivers and fetid pools that were being destroyed by western civilization were you referring to?
| I was never arguing anything based on some unknown. |
Sure you were: you were and remain emphatic that there are unknowns. |
With finite man there will always be unknowns. Frankly I find it laughable that when I state that there ARE unknowns for finite man yet to discover in the complexity of global climate change and it's history that you insist that this unknown would have to be considered a miracle. As if infinite finite man has such a grasp on global climate change that any previous unknown natural phenomena that may be actively involved in the equation has already been equated out by finite man. I mean you accused me of appealing to miracles just by the mere thought of the possibility that finite man could be missing an unknown natural phenomena in the infinitely complex global climate system.
| I wish you'd get around to explaining how those unknowns affect our science, though. |
That's the point, when dealing with finite man and his science no one can possibly know how many unknown(s) there are and what their effect(s) have on finite man's conclusion. As filthy explained, when science discovers previous unknowns it revises itself. The only point I am trying to get across with you is for you to acknowledge the possibility does exist with finite man, that a previous unknown may not have been factored into the AGW conclusion. Not that a specific one does exist put that it may exist. I don't believe you are there yet when you insists I am appealing to miracles my simple interjecting the notion that one may exist. Think about it, you are claiming that I appeal to miracles by my implying that finite man is not infinite.
| You gather wrongly. In fact, since we weren't talking about that at all, I don't know why you'd attribute such a nonsensical position to me, other than to try to distract away from the fact that you're not discussing the science at all, despite implying that you would. |
I am just trying to get you to first acknowledge that finite man, even scientists, are not infinite in their conclusions and that by insinuating this it is not an appeal to miracles.
| God is the un-caused first cause. |
Thank you for admitting that God has caused global climate change |
Your welcome.
| Has God shared with you the reason He's doing this to us? |
Now you sound like one of those people from Florida who build a house to standard code, or below, right on the beach and then say they are cursed by God because a hurricane comes along and destroeys the house. The coast of Florida has taken hurricane hits for thousands or millions of years, depending on what model you subscribe to, so to act surprised when one comes along is idiotic. We have 4.5 billion years worth of global climate change history, what on earth would ever cause us to believe the climate is now stagnate and should go without change is beyond me.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 12/18/2007 07:58:02 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 07:17:25 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by perrodetokio
Hmmmmm... why waste time in a MMGW conspiracy when starting wars is a much a better deal!
And Bill: selling crack to kids will not make you a powerful figure in the world. Regulating the illegal drug market and fighting a fake "war on drugs" will!
(And, of course, keeping people ignorant and superstitious the way islamic fundamentalists and christian fundamentalists do, will also make you powerful!)
Have a mate!
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| will also make you powerful!) |
So will jet setting the globe giving $eromon$ on the irrevocable damage already done by man made climate change. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 12/18/2007 07:31:59 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 08:15:22 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by H. Humbert
Bill scott needs to watch this. Perhaps then he'll begin to understand why harping on the limits of scientific certainty is irrelevant to this discussion.
The rest of you should watch it anyway. :)
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It was an interesting and well made video. I will have to watch it again over lunch when I can watch without destractions. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 08:24:48 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Because it was. |
As is your U.N. hysteria.| Now who's failing crops, rivers and fetid pools that were being destroyed by western civilization were you referring to? |
That was hardly the point.| With finite man there will always be unknowns. |
Duh.| Frankly I find it laughable that when I state that there ARE unknowns for finite man yet to discover in the complexity of global climate change and it's history that you insist that this unknown would have to be considered a miracle. |
Of course you'd find it laughable. I would, too. I never said, implied or insisted on any such thing, Bill. I said that for an objection to a theory on the basis of some unknown to be seriously considered would be a miracle.As if infinite finite man has such a grasp on global climate change that any previous unknown natural phenomena that may be actively involved in the equation has already been equated out by finite man. |
The "unknown" sword cuts both ways, Bill.| I mean you accused me of appealing to miracles just by the mere thought of the possibility that finite man could be missing an unknown natural phenomena in the infinitely complex global climate system. |
I did no such thing.| That's the point, when dealing with finite man and his science no one can possibly know how many unknown(s) there are and what their effect(s) have on finite man's conclusion. |
Yes, indeed.| As filthy explained, when science discovers previous unknowns it revises itself. |
It sure does, for better or worse.| The only point I am trying to get across with you is for you to acknowledge the possibility does exist with finite man, that a previous unknown may not have been factored into the AGW conclusion. Not that a specific one does exist put that it may exist. |
I would never have not acknowledged it. Will you acknowledge that the presence of unknowns must factor equally in favor of a scientific theory as it does against a scientific theory?| I don't believe you are there yet when you insists I am appealing to miracles my simple interjecting the notion that one may exist. Think about it, you are claiming that I appeal to miracles by my implying that finite man is not infinite. |
You're being mighty snotty considering that you're fabricating claims that I never made.| I am just trying to get you to first acknowledge that finite man, even scientists, are not infinite in their conclusions and that by insinuating this it is not an appeal to miracles. |
This is a non-starter that's simply a distraction, Bill, by you, away from the science. The more time you spend demanding that I acknowledge something that I never denied, the more time you get to try to think up something science-y to say.| Has God shared with you the reason He's doing this to us? |
Now you sound like one of those people from Florida who build a house right on the beach and then say they are cursed by God because a hurricane comes along. The coast of Florida has taken hurricane hits for thousands or millions of years, depending on what model you subscribe to, so to act surprised when one comes along is idiotic. We have 4.5 billion years worth of global climate change history, what on earth would ever cause us to believe the climate is now stagnate and should go without change is beyond me. |
You didn't answer the question. I'm not surprised and I don't care whether God has made the climate fluctuate for billions of years or for 150 years, Bill. Has He shared with you His reason(s) for making the climate change at all? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 09:12:38 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Dave W. |
As is your U.N. hysteria. |
So then we have competing hysteria's and may the best hysteria win.
| Now who's failing crops, rivers and fetid pools that were being destroyed by western civilization were you referring to? |
That was hardly the point. |
I still found it interesting and would like to here more about these failing crops and fetid pools that the west has directly caused.
| I said that for an objection to a theory on the basis of some unknown to be seriously considered would be a miracle. |
I was not offering up an objection.
| You didn't answer the question. I'm not surprised and I don't care whether God has made the climate fluctuate for billions of years or for 150 years, Bill. Has He shared with you His reason(s) for making the climate change at all? |
No.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 12/18/2007 09:13:52 |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 09:22:06 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
The US voters can use their vote to push the US government to act well before the UN ever could. And as a sovereign nation that is the way it should be.
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The international community started at Kyoto more than 10 years ago. Then is the US public going to wake up? Bill, history is proving that while US voters can use their vote, they aren't doing it.
US voters (like you?) are too busy being comfortable in their SUVs, and raging against atheists, abortion, and homosexuals, to have a second thought about the world they are leaving to their children.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 09:39:30 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Originally posted by Bill scott
The US voters can use their vote to push the US government to act well before the UN ever could. And as a sovereign nation that is the way it should be.
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The international community started at Kyoto more than 10 years ago. Then is the US public going to wake up? Bill, history is proving that while US voters can use their vote, they aren't doing it.
US voters (like you?) are too busy being comfortable in their SUVs, and raging against atheists, abortion, and homosexuals, to have a second thought about the world they are leaving to their children.
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As is your U.N. hysteria. |
So then we have competing hysteria's and may the best hysteria win. |
| US voters (like you?) are too busy being comfortable in their SUVs, and raging against atheists, abortion, and homosexuals, to have a second thought about the world they are leaving to their children. |
And suddenly a new frontrunner enters the picture. 
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 10:14:07 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
So then we have competing hysteria's and may the best hysteria win. |
I'm only allowing myself a wallow in sensationalism because you refuse to get on with the science, Bill. The hysteria is actually a lot easier.
And now that you can no longer complain that I refuse to acknowledge that unknowns exist, you simply clam up rather than acknowledge that unknowns exist in equal amounts in favor of as well as against a theory.
| I still found it interesting and would like to here more about these failing crops and fetid pools that the west has directly caused. |
"The west" and "directly caused" are creations of your imagination, Bill (how many times have you reminded us that China is the #1 greenhouse gas emitter, anyway?).| I was not offering up an objection. |
Then all this talk of unknowns was nothing more than a distraction away from the fact that you've only got hysteria to present, and nothing scientific. After all, if it wasn't an objection, then it wasn't an objection to how much certainty anyone (scientists, the U.N., Al Gore, etc.) grants AGW theory. Why did you even mention "unknowns," Bill?| You didn't answer the question. I'm not surprised and I don't care whether God has made the climate fluctuate for billions of years or for 150 years, Bill. Has He shared with you His reason(s) for making the climate change at all? |
No. |
Hey, an answer! It's a real shame, Bill, that God hasn't told you why He wants you to suffer. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 11:13:16 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Dave W. |
| So then we have competing hysteria's and may the best hysteria win. |
The hysteria is actually a lot easier. |
As you have shown.
| And now that you can no longer complain that I refuse to acknowledge that unknowns exist, you simply clam up rather than acknowledge that unknowns exist in equal amounts in favor of as well as against a theory. |
Clam up? I acknowledge it and never gave you any reason to think that I thought other wise.
| I still found it interesting and would like to here more about these failing crops and fetid pools that the west has directly caused. |
"The west" and "directly caused" are creations of your imagination, |
| the people who are so distant from Western civilization that they don't understand why their crops are failing |
You implied that those "so distant from Western civilization" who had crop failure would have no idea the west was responsible. I simply found this sensationalism fascinating and wanted you to expand on it.
| Bill (how many times have you reminded us that China is the #1 greenhouse gas emitter, anyway?). |
That is irrelevant as they signed the planet saving Kyotto treaty (even though they are exempt from any of it's teeth).
| Why did you even mention "unknowns," Bill? |
For some unknown reason.
| Hey, an answer! It's a real shame, Bill, that God hasn't told you why He wants you to suffer. |
So you have personal information that God wants me to suffer? This sounds like more sensationalism again
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 11:43:00 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Clam up? I acknowledge it and never gave you any reason to think that I thought other wise. |
Yes, you did, by only mentioning "unknowns" in relation to the conclusions reached by climate scientists. You never once offered anything similar for AGW deniers.| You implied that those "so distant from Western civilization" who had crop failure would have no idea the west was responsible. |
No, the distance from Western civilization only relates to the reasons the crops are failing, whether global warming is caused by humans or not. There was a wonderful story on NPR this morning about the misery a Tibetan village is facing, and the villagers are blaming themselves (for angering the mountain gods), illustrating my point.| I simply found this sensationalism fascinating and wanted you to expand on it. |
It's sensationalism that you're reading in, not that actually existed in my thoughts.| That is irrelevant as they signed the planet saving Kyotto treaty (even though they are exempt from any of it's teeth). |
No, it's absolutely relevant to your flawed assumption that I was blaming the West. China isn't in the West.| Hey, an answer! It's a real shame, Bill, that God hasn't told you why He wants you to suffer. |
So you have personal information that God wants me to suffer? This sounds like more sensationalism again |
God causes global warming in such a way as to cause scientists to suggest that something can be done, which causes Al Gore and the U.N. to step up to the plate, which causes Bill Scott a conniption. What could be more clear than that God wants you to suffer? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 12/18/2007 : 12:04:23 [Permalink]
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Hmm. As I see it, there are 'unknowns' and then there are 'can't-be-knowns.' There are lots of unknowns -- anyone with an IQ above the temperature of cold coffee knows that -- but there are no can't-be-knowns other than the supernatural. Prove to me anything supernatural.
I withdraw the demand. The supernatural by it's very nature cannot be proven. If it could be, it wouldn't qualify as supernatural any more, would it? Therefore, by default, there are no can't-be-knowns.
That is not to say that some things will never be known, an example being that I don't and never will know why I've written that.
Here's an example of pollution directly associated with MMGW because it has resulted from fossil fuel-burning and other industrial waste clogging up the atmosphere: Acid rain, mist and fog
Acid deposition is a general name for a number of phenomena, namely acid rain, acid fog and acid mist. This means it can imply both wet and dry (gaseous) precipitation. Acid deposition is a rather well known environmental problem, for example acid fog killed several thousand people in London in 1952.
Acid deposition is concerned with long-range rather than local effects. Pollutants are mixed in the atmosphere and therefore usually cannot be attributed to any local source. Pollutants are generally more dispersed and of lower concentrations than local ground level pollutants.
Acid deposition typically has a pH below 4, but this may be as low as 1.5 under seriously acidic conditions. It primarily consists of two types of compounds, namely sulphuric acid (H2SO4) and nitric acid (HNO3).
Sulphuric acid is formed by conversion of sulphur dioxide emitted from power stations, melting processes, home fires, car exhausts and other sources. It contributes about 70% to the overall acidity of deposition.
Reaction mechanism: SO3 + H2O -> H2SO4
Nitric acid is formed from nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. It contributes about 30% to the overall acidity of deposition.
Reaction mechanism: NO2 + OH- -> HNO3 |
Interesting, no? We're not just warming up, but rotting as well. And our agriculture requires soils within a certain PH range, so the chance that our species could starve in the bargain rears it's head.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 12/18/2007 : 13:10:10 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Dave W. |
| Clam up? I acknowledge it and never gave you any reason to think that I thought other wise. |
Yes, you did, by only mentioning "unknowns" in relation to the conclusions reached by climate scientists. You never once offered anything similar for AGW deniers. |
So then you just assumed I do not apply "unknowns" to AGW deniers simply because I failed to mention that I do? So if I say Dario Franciti won the Indy 500 are you going to insist that I don't acknowledge any of the other winners since I failed to mention them?
| No, the distance from Western civilization only relates to the reasons the crops are failing, whether global warming is caused by humans or not. |
And so what was the reason(s) given for the crop failure?
| There was a wonderful story on NPR this morning about the misery a Tibetan village is facing, and the villagers are blaming themselves (for angering the mountain gods), illustrating my point. |
What point? And what is "wonderful" about the "misery" suffered by a "Tibetan village" because of "crop failure" that was blamed on "mtn. gods" because of the village's "distant from Western civilization"?
| I simply found this sensationalism fascinating and wanted you to expand on it. |
It's sensationalism that you're reading in, not that actually existed in my thoughts. |
Well regardless I am still interested in why all their crops failed.
| No, it's absolutely relevant to your flawed assumption that I was blaming the West. China isn't in the West. |
OK. I misunderstood you then. China may be the number #1 emitters but they signed Kyoto so all is cool with them (even though they are exempt from it). It's that damn evil US who won't sign it and so they have doomed us all.
| Hey, an answer! It's a real shame, Bill, that God hasn't told you why He wants you to suffer. |
So you have personal information that God wants me to suffer? This sounds like more sensationalism again. |
God causes global warming in such a way as to cause scientists to suggest that something can be done, which causes Al Gore and the U.N. to step up to the plate, which causes Bill Scott a conniption. What could be more clear than that God wants you to suffer? |
Hmm, so God wants me to suffer and in his omnipotence he uses Al Gore and the UN to accomplish his purpose? I mean yes, Al Gore and the UN do irk me so it must be true.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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An international team of MMGW deniers (scientists)
