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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
 Posted - 03/15/2003 : 18:08:33
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In the thread "Probability of LIFE" Doomar wrote thus:
Do you mean to say, if there is no God, what was the probability of life arising on earth? There are formulas for that particular discussion. The resulting chance is so small as to approach zero.
I asked for a link but Doomar never produced one. Perhaps he have been busy elsewhere. Anyway, I searched for such a site and this is what I came up with:
http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/designss.html
It's a rather well made page, with a lot of convincing arguments.
There is also a long and impressive list of references, but beware, some of the arguments are disingenious. Some agruments are superfluous.
Have a look at the page, and tell me what you think.
One person has already given a go att deconstructing the formula, but unfortunatly he didn't get everything right. (Can anyone really get this right?)
http://www.godhatesfundies.com/articles/probabilities.shtml
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"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2003 : 19:30:09 [Permalink]
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Very interesting, Doc, what I read of it. Alas, the print is small, my eyes are old, and these VA issued glasses ain't all they could be.
Hoping someojne more knowledgable than myself will pick it apart.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2003 : 00:40:43 [Permalink]
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None of the arguments seemed convincing to me, Dr. Mabuse, but I only got as far as the section titled "All other earth-sized planets will be either deserts or waterworlds" before I gave up for tonight.
The biggest problem is the "against all odds, we're here" aspect of the page. Given the tremendous number of planets out there, somewhere, it's actually probable that at least one would be Earth-like. Secondly, we've never encountered any other forms of life, so implying that what we know is the only possibility is simply arrogant.
Third, it's quite obvious that they'll reference papers that "agree" with them, but they fail to reference the vast majority of the "facts" they present, such as "The collision of the small planet with the earth resulted in the ejection of the majority of the earth's primordial atmosphere." It is, of course, questionable whether or not the papers they cite actually agree with their position, or if they were just quote-mining, as so many creationists do (although I will grant that these folks aren't "Young-Earth" creationists, they're just I.D. proponents).
Smallest of problems, but it's also to be noted that they fail to capitalize "Earth" when talking about the name of the planet, most of the time, but do so regularly for Venus, Mars, and other planets. The text is sloppy, if nothing else.
If I had the time, I'd gladly do a point-by-point with the page. Unfortunately, I don't have that luxury.
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- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2003 : 10:48:58 [Permalink]
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Uniqueness of the Galaxy-Sun-Earth-Moon System for Life Support
quote:
galaxy size (9) (p = 0.1)
if too large: infusion of gas and stars would disturb sun's orbit and ignite deadly galactic eruptions
if too small: infusion of gas would be insufficient to sustain star formation long enough for life to form
"Deadly galactic eruptions" What the f*** is that?
The Milkyway is the second largest galaxy in our local galaxy cluster.
Size has nothing to do with it.
quote:
galaxy type (7) (p = 0.1)
if too elliptical: star formation would cease before sufficient heavy elements formed for life chemistry
if too irregular: radiation exposure would be too severe (at times) and life-essential heavy elements would not form
This one actually have some merit. In order to have a high continous star formation rate we need a staff or spiral galaxy, and not an elliptical galaxy. But there are plenty of those.
quote:
supernovae eruptions (8) (p = 0.01)
if too close: radiation would exterminate life
<Snip by Mabuse>
white dwarf binaries (8) (p = 0.01)
These two are superfluous. Very soon after you have a supernova you are bound to find a white dwarf. There's no point in having two at the same time. (Of course, a supernova might turn into a neutron star or a black hole too.)
It is obvious that those who compiled the page knows some astronomy, and have been "quote fishing" as Dave pointed out. That's why some of the arguments appear reasonable. There's no point in poking holes in every single statement, simply too much work in that. Let's jump a bit...
quote:
parent star birth date (9) (p = 0.2)
if more recent: star burning would still be unstable; stellar system would contain too many heavy elements for life chemistry
if less recent: stellar system would contain insufficient heavy elements for life chemistry
Star birth date? ´Too much heavy elements? They are arguing that a star that is born today will be made of a nebula containing too much heavy elements. That is just hilarious. When a supernova occurs and matter is ejected by the blast, the ratios of elements heavier than helium are the same. They also say that a star with a higher heavy-element/hydrogen ratio would be unstable.
quote:
parent star mass (10) (p = 0.001)
if greater: star's luminosity would be too erratic and star would burn up too quickly to support life
if lesser: life support zone would be too narrow; rotation period of life-supportable planet would be too long; UV radiation would be insufficient for photosynthesis
I've never seen a histogram of star mass in the galaxy, so I do not have anything to say about the probability. Nasa says K-class and F-class stars may support life. F-class has a short life span, maybe not long enough to create multicellular life but definatly enough for bacteria. Is really only 1 in every thousand star a class K, F, or G?
quote:
parent star color (9) (p = 0.4)
if redder: photosynthetic response would be insufficient to sustain life
if bluer: same result
Parent star colour is directly linked to the mass. The heavier star, the quicker it will burn, hotter it will get, shorter wavelength of it's light. So adding this probabilityfactor is just Bullsh**. It's already covered in "star mass".
quote:
parent star luminosity (11) (p = 0.0001)
if increases too soon: runaway green house effect would develop
if increases too late: runaway glaciation would develop
The star luminosity is a direct function of it's mass and age.
Our sun is now 30% brighter than it was when it was new. It will increase it's luminosity by something like 10% every billion years the next 4 billion years, until it has exhausted it's hydrogen and start burning helium. It will then inflate and become a red giant.
The rate of increasing luminosity is directly linked to the stars lifespan, that is directly linked to it's mass.
And the star's mass has already been covered.
quote:
magnetic field (20) (p = 0.01)
if stronger: electromagnetic storms would be too severe
if weaker: planetary surface and ozone layer would be inadequately protected from hard solar and stellar radiation
When I read "electromagnetic storms would be too severe" I cried out "What the F*** is that??? !!!"
The number '20' above is a footnote reference, to a paper in Physical Review Letters, 75 (1995). This paper could be found with a google-search and its content has NOTHING TO DO with magnetic fields affecting stability of pre- or biotic molecules. But I could read this...
quote:
"Stability of Matter in Magnetic Fields," Physical Review Letters, 75 (1995): The fact that someone can't simply push two stones together into one superdense rock falls in with commonsense notions of how solid objects behave on Earth. The situation changes remarkably when matter comes in contact with a very intense magnetic field, however. Such fields, on the order of 1 trillion gauss--or more than 1 million times stronger than the most extreme magnetic fields produced artificially in laboratories--could compress atoms into a state so dense that one would expect them to merge into a single explosive, subatomic stew.
Now they blew it. They are caught lying by providing a reference, saying that it supports their claim when it is clear that the reference has nothing to do with it.
It wasn't until now, when I really had the time to check out the reference that I did discover it was false. And if they have the nerve to think that noone will double check one reference, how can we be sure that there are not several that are false? Perhaps ALL of them might be.
Whatever happened to "you shall not lie" stuff they hold so dear? |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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PhoenixPaw
New Member
Sweden
10 Posts |
Posted - 03/30/2003 : 17:13:33 [Permalink]
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Brother, I recently came across quote from a christian to the effect that "lying is ok, as long as it futhers the cause".
Also, it seems that the higher up in the christian hiarchy, and the more successfull one is to get converts, the more leniency is to be shown when one goes against the scripture.
And remember, all they have to do is ask forgiveness of their god for having commited one of the 7 mortal sins, and it's (effectively) forgotten. |
The next time Micro$oft makes a product that doesn't suck, it'll be a vacuum-cleaner. (Source: random USEnet signature) |
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Franc28
New Member
29 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2003 : 03:12:22 [Permalink]
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Given the amount of water on Earth (i.e. the number of "tries" on any given planet at any single moment), and the hypothetical number of Earth-like planets in the galaxy, and the millions of years in the life-promoting window, it is patent nonsense that "the resulting chance is so small as to approach zero". It is YACSF (Yet Another Creationist Statistical Fumble), almost on par with their "calculation" of the probability of DNA.
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2003 : 10:55:03 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by PhoenixPaw
Brother, I recently came across quote from a christian to the effect that "lying is ok, as long as it futhers the cause".
Well, that's just plain evil. The scripture say (and I'm paraphrasing, because I have no english translation, and I don't feel like spending time looking it up) 'whatever you have done to the least of my brothers, you have done the same to me', so in fact they have lied to Jesus about it. And here comes what I consider is the funny part: As long as they lie consciously, and rationalize it, their asking forgiveness about it is not honest, thereby nullifying the cleansing of sin.
So they are screwed, they just don't know it.
I'm more agnostic than atheist, but in the old days when I did go to church, I was taught that the end does not justify means. I still think it doesn't. And I do not think that the majority of the christians think so either. They are just ignorant of the truth.
What scares my more is the fact that there is no way to tell if the "spiritual leaders" of the Christian church are just ignorant or actually lying when they say things that we know to be untrue.
quote:
And remember, all they have to do is ask forgiveness of their god for having commited one of the 7 mortal sins, and it's (effectively) forgotten.
Well, on their judgment day they will be judged by their own standards, and they will be surprised to see themselves burning in hell...  And that's just fine by me.
Sometimes I envy the islamic suicide bombers... But that is a story for the Religion-forum  |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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