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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13476 Posts

Posted - 12/28/2003 :  10:57:33   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message
From the Skeptic Dictionary:http://skepdic.com/ufos_ets.html
quote:
Dr. J. Allen Hynek, astronomer, foremost proponent of UFOs, and  the one who came up with the expression "close encounters of the third kind," defines a UFO as:

The reported perception of an object or light seen in the sky or upon land the appearance, trajectory, and general dynamic and luminescent behavior of which do not suggest a logical, conventional explanation and which is not only mystifying to the original percipients but remains unidentified after close scrutiny of all available evidence by persons who are technically capable of making a common sense identification, if one is possible.

These mystifying words seem to say that when you see something which intelligent people cannot rationally explain, then you are seeing a UFO. Witnesses to such sightings often claim that what they saw could not be explained by the known laws of physics.  They claim to have witnessed a violation of a law of nature, i.e., a miracle .

What Hynek considers to be "all available evidence" may be much less than what a skeptic would require. For example, the evidence appealed to by UFOlogists consists of (1) the testimony of people who claim to have seen aliens and/or alien spacecraft; (2) facts about the type of people who give the testimony; (3) the lack of contrary testimony or physical evidence that would either explain the sighting by conventional means (weather balloon, prank, meteor shower, reflection of light, etc.) or discredit the reliability of the eyewitness; and, (4) alleged weaknesses in the arguments of skeptics against the UFOlogists. The last item is irrelevant to the issue, yet it plays a disproportionately large role in UFOlogy.

Attacking an opponent's arguments or motives, instead of presenting positive evidence in defense of one's own view is common among defenders of the claim that UFOs are alien spacecraft. Of course, there is nothing wrong with attacking an opponent's argument and exposing weaknesses and faults thereby. But refutation is no substitute for support. It is simply faulty logic to assume that because an opponent's reasons are flawed, one's own reasons are valid. One's own reasons may be just as flawed as an opponent's, or even more flawed.

Another common tactic of UFOlogists is to claim that the skeptic cannot prove that what was seen was not an alien craft. One is supposed to infer from this fact that the perception probably was of an alien craft. This kind of reasoning is known as the argumentum ad ignorantiam. A claim does not become true or reasonable if a contrary claim cannot be proved to be true. With arguments for UFOs there are two distinct moves here. One is to claim that no logical explanation is possible because some scientist, pilot, Air Force Colonel, or Ph.D. cannot think of one. The other is to point to the lack of contrary evidence: no counter-testimony of other eyewitnesses, no proof that there were not aliens or alien spacecraft. Here, too, there is a logical error. The fact that some genius cannot come up with an explanation for something is irrelevant to deciding whether the correct explanation should be couched in terms of  visitors from outer space. The choice is not either (A) we know this conventional explanation is correct , or (B) we must conclude that  aliens have visited us.

It seems more reasonable to believe that the only reason we cannot explain these sightings by conventional means is because we do not have all the evidence; it not because these sightings are probably due to alien visitations. If we had all the evidence, we would probably be able to explain the sightings by some conventional means.

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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Maglev
Skeptic Friend

Canada
65 Posts

Posted - 12/28/2003 :  13:49:29   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Maglev's Homepage  Send Maglev an ICQ Message Send Maglev a Private Message
I have a few questions/suggestions here...

After all those sightings, one has to wonder why all those people never got together to form some sort of a group, to try and figure this mystery out... especialy with the huge amount of witnesses... "Hunts" could be organised, funds could be gathered, etc.

How come no one ever staked out those UFOs with a good quality video camera, equipped with a powerful zoom? Maybe equipped with some sort of night vision lense?

How about using one (or several) of those large searchlights, like those used in Hollywood, to shine on the "spaceship"?

Or some sort of laser devices (cant remember the name) with which you can mesure the distance of objects? Could give important clues!

Flares! Create a "grid" of people equipped with flare guns to shoot around the craft(s).

How about renting the Goodyear blimp? :)

Or checking the schedules of nearby airports? Nah, too easy.

I'm sure you guys can come up with more ideas such as these... One has to wonder why the UFO "beleivers" aren't doing any of these things...

Maglev

"The awe it inspired in me made the awe that people talk about in respect of religious experience seem, frankly, silly beside it. I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day."
--Douglas Adams, on evolutionary biology.
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Stargirl
Skeptic Friend

USA
94 Posts

Posted - 12/28/2003 :  14:11:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Stargirl a Private Message
I have to admit that in my early teen years I got into, here it comes, UFOlogy. I learned all the geometric theory's that were popular at the time, the straight-line theory, arc theory, triangle theory, etc, etc. But the more I read about UFO's the wackier the authors seemed. One book had a photo of what looked just like the reflection in my bedroom window of a common reading lamp, (including the ring of lights around the perimeter.) And the photo on the facing page was a grainy reproduction of a picture that I recognized as the Saturn Nebula. To confirm this I found the same photograph in my copy of Burham's Celestial Handbook. I figured if I could spot these fakes at the age of 14 the people writing and believing these books had to be nuts.

I also became interested in amateur astronomy at the same time as my fascination with UFO's. Of course I was heavily into science fiction too. In the intervening decades I've spent several thousand hours outside looking at the stars. And in all those years of observing in the wee hours of the night I've seen some pretty weird sights. Some of them were even up in the sky. Yet, I've never seen anything I couldn't eventually explain. The ones up in the sky anyway. The same is true of all the amateur astronomers I've met. One thing I find revealing about all the reported cases of UFO sightings is that most of them are by people who spend little time looking up in the sky. As I've said in another thread it took me years of reading and research to become an ardent skeptic but I finally made it.

If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him - Voltaire
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furshur
SFN Regular

USA
1536 Posts

Posted - 01/05/2004 :  13:09:39   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send furshur a Private Message
These flying V objects are probably geese or cranes. The lights of the city reflecting off of the bellies of the birds is the most likely explanation. I suppose that if the humidity was high the birds feathers may have been wet which would enhance the reflections. The most telling is the description of the events; a V formation that is moving slowly with no sound. Of course geese and cranes frequently migrate at night.
I would be willing to bet that for most of the sightings in the fall the 'UFOs' move to the south and in the spring the 'UFOs' move to the north. The Hudson valley is on the so called Atlantic Flyway.
It may not be geese but it is more likely geese than Extra-terrestrials looking for there next abduction victim.

If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know.
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 01/06/2004 :  04:46:51   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Do you want to set the UFO community all a'twitter?

Would you like to get your name in the newspaper in a way that doesn't involve police officers or wrecked machinery?

Do you have too much time on your hands and can think of nothing constructive to do with it?

Well, take heart my bored brothers and sisters, 'cause your guide to noteriety and perhaps even monetary reward is at hand, and all ya got to do is read the link (and send a modest, cash donation to 'filthy' c/o SFN)!

http://www.csicop.org/si/2003-09/faking-ufo-photos.html




"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Sea Sorbust
Skeptic Friend

USA
68 Posts

Posted - 01/06/2004 :  09:54:35   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Sea Sorbust a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by furshur

These flying V objects are probably geese or cranes. The lights of the city reflecting off of the bellies of the birds is the most likely explanation. I suppose that if the humidity was high the birds feathers may have been wet which would enhance the reflections. The most telling is the description of the events; a V formation that is moving slowly with no sound. Of course geese and cranes frequently migrate at night.
I would be willing to bet that for most of the sightings in the fall the 'UFOs' move to the south and in the spring the 'UFOs' move to the north. The Hudson valley is on the so called Atlantic Flyway.
It may not be geese but it is more likely geese than Extra-terrestrials looking for there next abduction victim.

Got to say, furshur, that the geese or cranes idea is one of the dumbest I've ever heard. The Valley is filled with people who have watched decades of geese and crane flocks migrating southward. How did they suddenly get fooled? Don't know about cranes, but geese make lots of noise when they migrate. Very distinctive, unmistakable noise. Lots of it. Like the UFO and little green men idea more than the geese migration notion.

Cops and scientists are busy people. Both groups always have something to do: pursue crooks and file innumerable reports; pursue research and teach dumb students. The purpose of wacko groups studing UFOs, psychic nail-benders, or mind-reading is to dig, dig, dig up enough evidence to interest real authorities, whether cops or scientists. The evidence must be compelling enough to convince cops or scientists that the new subject is more interesting than the pressing work then being done. That's what cops or scientists do; and that's what the wacko-groups must set as their ultimate goal. BTW, the "Global Warming" crowd originally were a "wacko group" with a highly dubious theory. They succeeded.

The military is a very different thing. Most military people have little to do other than train; they, except during war, have time and resources aplenty to spend on anything that broaches on that most frighting of the 8 Principles of War, "Surprise!"

Now then, it is to the military's great advantage to suspect or to actually find danger, as would true with UFOs: More resources, more money, maybe even more troop-strength. However the military has been quiet on the UFO business. So either they have looked and found nothing or the civilian, politico side of the government have ordered them to hush up, to cover up, so as not to panic the voters.

But I don't believe this last possibility either. Maybe the military could be kept quiet for a few years but the mere possibility of danger from UFOs would soon result in some high-ranking officer "blowing the whistle," out of sheer pragmatism if nothing else: Even generals and admirals have grandkids to worry about.

What else is there to say?

"This is the forest primeval...."
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2004 :  05:27:49   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Dagnabbit! The teenage ragamuffins have beat us to it!

http://www.mlive.com/news/jacitpat/index.ssf?/base/news-7/107349517387480.xml





"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26020 Posts

Posted - 01/08/2004 :  20:31:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Dagnabbit! Wrong thread!

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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ktesibios
SFN Regular

USA
505 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2004 :  00:22:50   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send ktesibios a Private Message
Every time I read the phrase "Hudson Valley UFO", Jeannie C. Riley starts singing inside my head.

"The Republican agenda is to turn the United States into a third-world shithole." -P.Z.Myers
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2004 :  04:56:32   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Dagnabbit Dave, I realized that just as I hit the send button. Thanks for the move.

<blockquote id="quote"><font size="1" face="Verdana,Arial,Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"> Every time I read the phrase "Hudson Valley UFO", Jeannie C. Riley starts singing inside my head. [/quote]

Yeah, ktesibios, me too. Great minds think alike, eh?



Edited in a futil attempt to straighten out the quote.

"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

Edited by - filthy on 01/09/2004 04:59:35
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furshur
SFN Regular

USA
1536 Posts

Posted - 01/09/2004 :  06:57:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send furshur a Private Message
Sea said:
quote:
Got to say, furshur, that the geese or cranes idea is one of the dumbest I've ever heard. The Valley is filled with people who have watched decades of geese and crane flocks migrating southward. How did they suddenly get fooled? Don't know about cranes, but geese make lots of noise when they migrate. Very distinctive, unmistakable noise. Lots of it. Like the UFO and little green men idea more than the geese migration notion.

My idea at worst is the second dumbest theory. The dumbest theory is that if you see a light in the sky that you can't identify - then it must be an extra terestriial craft.
As far as people watching migrations for years and suddenly being fooled, remember that when Venus is at it brightest you will usually see an increase in UFO reports (it was about 1,000 ft high and was moving at the same speed as my car!!).
Canadian geese are noisy as hell, snow geese are usually silent, except for a whistling or humming sound coming from there wing beats.
I see UFOs all the time. I love to look at the night sky and the stars. I see objects moving across the sky with no sound or aviation lights. These are Unidentified Flying Objects, I assume that they are satelites or space debris, but the bottom line is I cannot identify what they are exactly. How anyone can take such an absurd LEAP OF FAITH to say they, "If I cannot identify it, then it must be aliens", I will never understand.
Here are some explanations for the strange lights in the Hudson valley that are all EQUALLY valid (or invalid):
1. They are alien craft.
2. They are angels
3. They are craft from the atlantis
4. They are from the future
5. They are from another 'dimension'
These are all conjecture, all unprovable, and all of these ideas reach for an explanation that is outside of our normal experience. I just don't get why some people need to look for fantastic reasons for relatively mundane phenomena.

If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know.
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