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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 11/02/2004 : 09:24:56 [Permalink]
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Jerry:
quote:
Ok, Too bad, you seem like a ice guy. But if you simply will not accept that I have no knowledge of any particular designers after I've gone to such great length to explain it to you, guess we've gone as far as we can go in discourse. Thanks for your posts and have a great life!
I suppose I'm about as nice as most any busted-up, snake-snatching, 'possum-coddling, old biker is likely to be. But 'nice' is neither here nor there.
Y'know, it's not easy for me. Way back down the tortureous road of this thread, a comment was made concerning 8th grade, junior high school dropouts; I don't remember the context. Well, you're talking to one. I am all but entirely self-educated. Now, that might sound good -- damn, da filth is so well spoken -- but it also means that I've got to check everything. If I'm not talking natural history or Harley Davidson, I can't work off the top of my head. You might have noticed that I had no part in the math discussions, nor will I. I wouldn't know what I'm talking about. I hate when I don't know what I'm talking about.
Thus, I deal in solids. Math is necessary to, what is the word I'm looking for -- postulate(?) a designer, but until that designer is brought forth, it is still just a speculation whatever the numbers state.
A thought on the percentages of people accepting the ToE. It really doesn't matter. The ToE is a scientific theory heavily backed up by virtually all of the existing evidence, not a popularity contest. Science has never claimed to be fair.
You are correct in saying that the Devonian Bunny does not exist. No mammals existed at the time. It is merely an example, but if the equivelent could be found, the ToE would fall into serious doubt.
Did you know that a rabbit is not a rodent? It is classified as a lagomorph as are conies. What thoughts does that give you on the far distant future of the grasshopper mouse?
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 09:25:52 [Permalink]
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He needs his dostorted (intentionally) version of statistics to support his idea that CSI cannot occur naturallly.
Take that away from him, and his entire argument for a designer crumbles to dust.... because, if CSI CAN occur in nature, then there is no requirement for ANY designer.
So, expect him to cling to it like it's his favorite security banket, cry loudly when you take it from him, and become abusive when you won't return it to him.
If I thought the guy was honestly confused about his statistics and logic, I'd have some small sypmathy for him. However, Jerry is nothing more than a bold liar. He takes umbrage in the fact that probability is a notoriously conusing topic for those who have not had formal education in statistics (and even those who have, but don't use the skills often), and used the ignorance of people to lie to them. Same for his lies about what his theory predicts.
Jerry is intentionally distorting probability and logic, creating straw-men that he can easily defeat with his lies.
So... one more time for effect.... LAIR LAIR PANTS ON FIRE!
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Paulos23
Skeptic Friend
USA
446 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 09:36:07 [Permalink]
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Same here. I'm also starting to doubt whether I'm really correct in thinking that if I throw 6 once with a dice, I still have a probability of 1/6 that my next throw will be a 6.
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I play warhammer 40K, and one of the ways I figure out if a unit is worth its points is I figure out the probablity of it taking out another unit. Needless to say, the game uses lots of 6 siders.
One of the mistakes people make is that the 1/6 is true in a low number of roles. It isn't. You will only see all sides come up 1/6 of the time if you increase the number of roles to a very large number. So if you role 6000 dice, about 1000 will come up per side - give or take 20 or a very weird fluke of luck. So the 1/216 chance of three 6's in a row tells me that I probably wont make that role every game, but over the corse of a month of games, I will see it once or twice.
Also, dispite what happened in the past, every side of the dice has a 1/6 chance of showing up. So even if I get six 6's in a row, the chance that another 6 comes up is still 1/6.
Hope that clears some things up. |
You can go wrong by being too skeptical as readily as by being too trusting. -- Robert A. Heinlein
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley |
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tomk80
SFN Regular
Netherlands
1278 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 09:46:32 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Paulos23
Same here. I'm also starting to doubt whether I'm really correct in thinking that if I throw 6 once with a dice, I still have a probability of 1/6 that my next throw will be a 6.
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I play warhammer 40K, and one of the ways I figure out if a unit is worth its points is I figure out the probablity of it taking out another unit. Needless to say, the game uses lots of 6 siders.
One of the mistakes people make is that the 1/6 is true in a low number of roles. It isn't. You will only see all sides come up 1/6 of the time if you increase the number of roles to a very large number. So if you role 6000 dice, about 1000 will come up per side - give or take 20 or a very weird fluke of luck. So the 1/216 chance of three 6's in a row tells me that I probably wont make that role every game, but over the corse of a month of games, I will see it once or twice.
Also, dispite what happened in the past, every side of the dice has a 1/6 chance of showing up. So even if I get six 6's in a row, the chance that another 6 comes up is still 1/6.
Hope that clears some things up.
I was merely being sarcastic here after reading Jerry's last post. I hope he reads your post, he might learn something. |
Tom
`Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, `if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.'
-Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Caroll- |
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Paulos23
Skeptic Friend
USA
446 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 10:46:21 [Permalink]
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Sorry tom80, my sarcastic meter doesn't work to well in the morning. Looking back I see the sarcasm.
Man, this thread really hurts my head. I guess when I saw something I understood I jumped on it. |
You can go wrong by being too skeptical as readily as by being too trusting. -- Robert A. Heinlein
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley |
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furshur
SFN Regular
USA
1536 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 10:47:51 [Permalink]
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JerryB's guide to probabilities;
Russian Roulette: It is perfectly safe - Just don't pull the trigger the sixth time!!!
If you are on a plane that is 'going down' and there are 3 parachutes and you know that one of them won't open - don't worry, just grab one and jump because you would have to jump 3 times before you would get the one that won't work.
My 7th grade daughter knows more about probability than Jerry does.
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If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know. |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 11:10:48 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Paulos23
Same here. I'm also starting to doubt whether I'm really correct in thinking that if I throw 6 once with a dice, I still have a probability of 1/6 that my next throw will be a 6.
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I play warhammer 40K, and one of the ways I figure out if a unit is worth its points is I figure out the probablity of it taking out another unit. Needless to say, the game uses lots of 6 siders.
One of the mistakes people make is that the 1/6 is true in a low number of roles. It isn't. You will only see all sides come up 1/6 of the time if you increase the number of roles to a very large number. So if you role 6000 dice, about 1000 will come up per side - give or take 20 or a very weird fluke of luck. So the 1/216 chance of three 6's in a row tells me that I probably wont make that role every game, but over the corse of a month of games, I will see it once or twice.
Also, dispite what happened in the past, every side of the dice has a 1/6 chance of showing up. So even if I get six 6's in a row, the chance that another 6 comes up is still 1/6.
Hope that clears some things up.
Hi, Paulos23, and welcome to SFN.
You're right-- rolling a d6 six times is unlikely to produce a result wherein each side appears once. But roll a d6 6,000 times and you'll probably have pretty close to (but not exactly!) 1,000 1's, and pretty close to 1,000 2's, and so on.
And you're also right that there's no magic power that makes rolling a 6 any more or less likely when it comes after previously rolling the sequence 1,4,3,6,3,2,5,4,1 than the sequence 6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6. Even if you've rolled nine 6's in a row, the odds that your tenth will be a six is still 1/6. It's only when you ask the odds of rolling ten 6's do you get to the astronimical odds.
What I don't understand is why Jerry thinks were all so uneducated if we don't think that in oder for a designated number to appear after a d6 (say, a 3-- a 1 in 6 change), we'll need to roll the dice 6 times.
Personal experience has shown that I don't need to roll 3d6 216 times before I get my coveted 18! Nor do I have to flip a coin twice before I get heads-- I can get heads (insert frat joke here) after just one flip! |
| Edited by - Cuneiformist on 11/02/2004 11:12:57 |
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 11:43:41 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by JerryB
LOL.....OK, You guys win, I won't be spending much more time trying to educate an entire forum in 7th grade math. Have a great life!
And he leaves not learning a thing, except perhaps that his pet theory doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of ever becoming widely critically accepted.
Design is apparent if one assumes design. This "dead in the water" theory was wrong when it was suggested in Paley's watchmaker, and its wrong now, even if you throw out a bunch of math that says existing lottery winners have an impossibly low probability of ever winning, therefore they couldn't have won except by intelligent intervention.
It's merely an argument from ignorance. Jerry can't imagine how organisms evolved themselves. He doesn't "buy" it. Therefore, he rejects it a priori, and muscles forth the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics as support, even though the 2nd law has nothing to do with information theory.
He replies evasively, relies heavily the answers to his equations, but never feels the need to explain how he's arrived at the numbers to plug into those equations, or why his equations rest on wrong assumptions.
He'll go back into hiding, cursing the ignorant scientists and their "religion" of secular humanism. But he'll come back. The man's on a mission from god, he just can't say so or the jig is up.
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
| Edited by - H. Humbert on 11/02/2004 14:14:22 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 12:30:17 [Permalink]
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P'raps he could partner with verlch and get a tag-team going.....
Or not, whaddahell.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Siberia
SFN Addict
Brazil
2322 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 12:42:31 [Permalink]
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| If he can convince Verlch he ain't a freemason/heretic or so... |
"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa
"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 12:50:03 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Cuneiformist
Can anyone?!? I'm starting to doubt my own intellectual abilities!
Let me try. Obviously, since a one has a 1-in-6 chance of coming up, it won't show up until you've rolled the die six times. Since a two also has a 1-in-6 chance, it won't show up until you've rolled the die six times. Same for three, four, five, and six.
So, the first five times you roll the die, it will spin on one corner until you stop it. The sixth time, however, the faces of the die will all fly off its core, and land face up on the table.
So:
1st try: no result
2nd try: no result
3rd try: no result
4th try: no result
5th try: no result
6th try: result is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
Right? Or did I just drop a lobe?  |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 13:24:14 [Permalink]
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Hey, guys! I just flipped a coin 500 times, and got the following results:001: THHTT TTHTT THTTT THHHT TTTTT
026: THTHT HTHHH TTHHH TTTHH HTTTT
051: HHTHT THHHH HHTHT HTHTH THHTT
076: TTTHH HHHHT HHTHH TTHHH HTHTH
101: TTHTT HTTHH HTHTT THTHH HHTHH
126: HHHTH TTHHT HTHHT THTTT HHHTH
151: HHHTH HTHHT THTHT TTTHT THTTH
176: TTTTH HHHHH TTTHH THTTT THHHH
201: TTHHT THTTH HHHHH HHHHT THHHT
226: TTTHH HHTHT HHHHH HHHTT TTTHH
251: TTTHH HHTHT HHHTH HHHHT HTHTH
276: TTTTH HTTHH THHHH HHHHT HTTHH
301: HHHTH HTTHH HTTHH HTTTT THTTH
326: TTHTH TTTHH TTHTT TTTTH HHHTT
351: TTHTT TTTHH HHTHT HHHTT HHHHH
376: HHTHH HTHTH THTHH HTTTH HTHTT
401: TTHHT HTTTH HTTHT TTHTH HHTHH
426: HHHTT THHTT HTHTH HTTTT HHHTT
451: THHTH HHTHH HHHHH TTTTH THTHT
476: TTTTT TTTHH THHHH THTHH HHHHT The odds of getting precisely that sequence of heads and tails is about one chance in 10150, so the coin must have been guided by some sort of intelligence! Right? Right?!?!
Damn, that musta been my other lobe... |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26021 Posts |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2004 : 14:25:05 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
Hey, guys! I just flipped a coin 500 times, and got the following results:001: THHTT TTHTT THTTT THHHT TTTTT
026: THTHT HTHHH TTHHH TTTHH HTTTT
051: HHTHT THHHH HHTHT HTHTH THHTT
076: TTTHH HHHHT HHTHH TTHHH HTHTH
101: TTHTT HTTHH HTHTT THTHH HHTHH
126: HHHTH TTHHT HTHHT THTTT HHHTH
151: HHHTH HTHHT THTHT TTTHT THTTH
176: TTTTH HHHHH TTTHH THTTT THHHH
201: TTHHT THTTH HHHHH HHHHT THHHT
226: TTTHH HHTHT HHHHH HHHTT TTTHH
251: TTTHH HHTHT HHHTH HHHHT HTHTH
276: TTTTH HTTHH THHHH HHHHT HTTHH
301: HHHTH HTTHH HTTHH HTTTT THTTH
326: TTHTH TTTHH TTHTT TTTTH HHHTT
351: TTHTT TTTHH HHTHT HHHTT HHHHH
376: HHTHH HTHTH THTHH HTTTH HTHTT
401: TTHHT HTTTH HTTHT TTHTH HHTHH
426: HHHTT THHTT HTHTH HTTTT HHHTT
451: THHTH HHTHH HHHHH TTTTH THTHT
476: TTTTT TTTHH THHHH THTHH HHHHT The odds of getting precisely that sequence of heads and tails is about one chance in 10150, so the coin must have been guided by some sort of intelligence! Right? Right?!?!
Damn, that musta been my other lobe...
Glutton for punishment! You deserve to have your brains pop out so hard and fast, that your spinal cord drags your tail-bone clear up to L-5!
But it is a good example of how some of these people think: the odds are huge, therefore there must be a force guiding it. I'm not sure that they would apply it to coin-flipping, but it's the same idea. A pity some divine power never saw fit to help me with The Cube.
How's yer thumb?
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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