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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4955 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  08:17:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by HalfMooner

Cuneiformist remarked:
quote:
If I were to roll a six-sided die ten times and came up with the sequence 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3, and were to do it again but come up with the sequence 2 4 6 1 4 2 5 3 6 1, which would be more significant? The answer of course, is that neither is; the probability of rolling the first sequence is the same as rolling the second. But we see some significance in the first (10 3's in a row!), and so attach greater value to it.
I would say the first set of die rolls would be the most significant. Simply because this sequence gives a pretty fair statistical indication of a heavily loaded die.

"God doesn't play with dice," said Einstein. Correct: Using loaded dice is not "playing," it's work by a professional cheater. Not that I'm contradicting your main point, though. "Just busting your balls," as the New York mobster on "The Sopranos" said just before Tony's boys had enough of it and murdered him. ["Ducking" smiley]


Fair enough-- make 10 different dice rolled one after the other. Fact is, the odds of rolling one sequence of ten numbers is the same as rolling any other sequence.

Or change it to 12 rolls with the sequence of: 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 on the first 12 and then a sequence of: 3 2 4 4 1 6 2 4 5 3 1 6

The odds of doing the first is the same as the second.
Edited by - Cuneiformist on 06/06/2006 08:17:58
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  08:50:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Cuneiformist

You must understand that this is hardly compelling evidence for a "creator"-- super-magical god or otherwise. All you've done is describe some aspects of the natural world, note that we don't understand all of them, and assert therefore that Yahweh is real.


I never asserted God was real. I said that there is evidence for God not proof.

quote:
This is similarly not compelling. As it notes in the wiki article, the principle "is simply tautological reasoning, an elaborate way of saying "if things were different, they would be different". If this is granted, the WAP becomes a truism saying nothing and explaining nothing, because in order for us to be here to ponder the universe, that universe has to be structured so that we can exist."
I may not be understanding your argument correctly, but wouldn't this not allow us to beleive anything or come to any conclusions about our existence?

quote:
If I were to roll a six-sided die ten times and came up with the sequence 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3, and were to do it again but come up with the sequence 2 4 6 1 4 2 5 3 6 1, which would be more significant? The answer of course, is that neither is; the probability of rolling the first sequence is the same as rolling the second. But we see some significance in the first (10 3's in a row!), and so attach greater value to it.


So you beleive that the prboability of the universe to come into existence by natural laws and not support life is the same as it is to form life by natural laws. You can prove that the two sequences above have the same probability of occuring. But, can you show mathmatically that it is just as probable that the universe was created by natural laws to support life as to not support life?

quote:
So the universe happened to fall into a range that allowed for the formation of planets like earth, and on earth, things happened to fall into a range the led to the development of life, etc. But besides our attaching significance to our creation, is that any more rare (or not rare?) than some other outcome?

Yes. Can you show me that it is not.

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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leoofno
Skeptic Friend

USA
346 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  09:55:24   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send leoofno a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

A summary of some non biblical reasons I believe that there is evidence (not proof) for a God or creator.

The universe came into being from nothing (or nothing like we can know) at a moment in time. There was a beginning, the Big Bang. The following is some evidence for the big bang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang):
The universe is expanding.
Radiation can be detected from the big bang
Temperature differences in the Universe that allowed galaxies to form.
Abundance of helium predicted by models.
There are others as well.
If something came from nothing (or nothing like we can know), this is evidence of a creator.

Anthropic constants. The idea that over 100 known constants are in place to support life on earth is more evidence of a creator. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle




Robb, I have a question.

Why does "something from nothing" imply a creator? Seems to me it only implies a creation, and not anything about the process of creation. To me, a creator means an omnipotent, self-aware entity. Why does "something from nothing" imply an omnipotent, self-aware entity? Why not some natural process we know nothing about?

The Anthropic stuff reminds me of something I think was attributed to Douglas Adams, about a puddle that concluded there must be a creator because the surface it was contained in was perfectly shaped to contain it.

"If you're not terrified, you're not paying attention." Eric Alterman
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist

USA
4955 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  10:04:24   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Cuneiformist a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb
quote:
This is similarly not compelling. As it notes in the wiki article, the principle "is simply tautological reasoning, an elaborate way of saying "if things were different, they would be different". If this is granted, the WAP becomes a truism saying nothing and explaining nothing, because in order for us to be here to ponder the universe, that universe has to be structured so that we can exist."
I may not be understanding your argument correctly, but wouldn't this not allow us to beleive anything or come to any conclusions about our existence?


No! It means that we shouldn't think that there's somethign so special about the universe-- or something so special about humans existing in the universe-- that it demands a super-magical god as its creator!
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moakley
SFN Regular

USA
1888 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  10:48:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send moakley a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.

Obviously, if the riddler is willing to give up the answer, then you'll understand. But if the riddler is dead or otherwise unavailable, then whatever answer one might come up with through whatever means may not be correct. And even when one is presented with the correct answer, one may be tempted to argue about it, due to personal desires.

There is this possibility. But if you accept my assumption that it was written by God, there must be a reason for the contradictions.

And yet another assumption is that the bible was originally written by man, several men as a matter of fact. Under this assumption the contradictions contained become easier to explain and accept. It eliminates the need for apologetics to justify the contradiction contained in a book that many believe to be divinely inspired by an omniscient god.

Life is good

Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26020 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  20:00:19   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

A summary of some non biblical reasons I believe that there is evidence (not proof) for a God or creator.

The universe came into being from nothing (or nothing like we can know) at a moment in time. There was a beginning, the Big Bang. The following is some evidence for the big bang (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang):
The universe is expanding.
Radiation can be detected from the big bang
Temperature differences in the Universe that allowed galaxies to form.
Abundance of helium predicted by models.
There are others as well.
If something came from nothing (or nothing like we can know), this is evidence of a creator.
And that's where the logic seems to fail. "We don't know what precipitated the Big Bang" is not evidence for a creator. It's not evidence for anything, except that there's something which we mere humans do not know.
quote:
Anthropic constants. The idea that over 100 known constants are in place to support life on earth is more evidence of a creator. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
How is that logical? What is the probability that any given universe would not have constants which are favorable to life? As soon as you can calculate those odds, then perhaps you'll have something scientific. Until then, it's a guess, and not scientific evidence of a creator.
quote:
Moral or Natural Law we all have. I think we all have a sense of right or wrong whether we live by it or not. Quoting CS Lewis

“Think of a country where people were admired for running away on battle, or where a man felt proud of double crossing all the people who had been kindest to him. You might as well try to imagine a country where two and two make five.”

Some of the evidence for a moral law are our reactions to situations, how could we know what justice is without it, it is the basis of our rights we believe in and without it all moral positions would be acceptable like human sacrifice, the holocaust, etc.
Doesn't it make sense that evolution would instill a sense of community with one's neighbors in order to successfully reproduce the genes that all of a population share? Yes, I'm saying that "moral law" is instinctual, and not God-given. The existence of "moral law" is not diagnostic between a created universe and a natural universe.
quote:
Another thought is that for us to exist without a creator, some kind of spontaneous life generation would have to have happened. We have no evidence for this; we cannot or have not combined chemicals together to form life. Even if we could some day, isn't that evidence for a creator? The fact that it took our intelligence to create life. We have not ever observed life being created from non life in nature.
You're just missing the point of abiogenesis research here. It's not to recreate life (though that might be cool), it's to study plausible methods through which organic molecules became self-replicators and then later became "life." We will never know precisely how it happened, but there are already several very good hypotheses on the table.
quote:

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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Hawks
SFN Regular

Canada
1383 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  20:01:35   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Hawks's Homepage Send Hawks a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb
Another thought is that for us to exist without a creator, some kind of spontaneous life generation would have to have happened. We have no evidence for this; we cannot or have not combined chemicals together to form life. Even if we could some day, isn't that evidence for a creator? The fact that it took our intelligence to create life. We have not ever observed life being created from non life in nature.

"... isn't that evidence for a creator?"

I've been waiting for quite some time for an ID proponent to bring about a similar argument. Taking it to the extreme, what you are in effect advocating is that since a scientific experiment is always "intelligently designed", the conclusion of ANY scientific experiment could be that there is a creator. Is this a reasonable conclusion? Obviously not. In the case for experimental abiogenesis, all a researcher would have done is to set up certain conditions so that the do novo creation of "life" was greatly facilitated - but it would still come about by natural processes. The creation of life would thus not reveal any evidence of a creator. All it would reveal is that under certain conditions, spontaneous formation of life is possible.

METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL
It's a small, off-duty czechoslovakian traffic warden!
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HalfMooner
Dingaling

Philippines
15831 Posts

Posted - 06/06/2006 :  23:38:24   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send HalfMooner a Private Message
Cune pointed out:
quote:
Fair enough-- make 10 different dice rolled one after the other. Fact is, the odds of rolling one sequence of ten numbers is the same as rolling any other sequence.

Or change it to 12 rolls with the sequence of: 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 on the first 12 and then a sequence of: 3 2 4 4 1 6 2 4 5 3 1 6

The odds of doing the first is the same as the second.
In terms of the probability and statistics math, I totally agree, if pure randomness were assured. But I would still presume a cheater if I saw a very long, repeating sequence via a die, which can easily made to "cheat." Such a sequence would set off alarms in any modern casino, where they are very good with the math required in their industry.




Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive.
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 06/07/2006 :  05:19:00   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
"Men are dogs" is crystal clear, also, but is meant strictly metaphorically. How about Luke 6:46-49:
"Why do you call me, 'Lord, Lord,' and do not do what I say? I will show you what he is like who comes to me and hears my words and puts them into practice. He is like a man building a house, who dug down deep and laid the foundation on rock. When a flood came, the torrent struck that house but could not shake it, because it was well built. But the one who hears my words and does not put them into practice is like a man who built a house on the ground without a foundation. The moment the torrent struck that house, it collapsed and its destruction was complete."
Does this passage not state that simple faith is not enough?

I disagree with you, Dave.
First, these verses does not explicitly say that confessing faith alone is not enough. You might get chastized for not living the way you have learned. However, the lesson here seems to be that unless you're practicing what you have been taught, you run a greater risk loosing your faith. (which is a practical advice no matter what you've been doing... I've lost much of my C programming skills because I didn't use it enough)

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  07:48:28   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
I've been waiting for quite some time for an ID proponent to bring about a similar argument. Taking it to the extreme, what you are in effect advocating is that since a scientific experiment is always "intelligently designed", the conclusion of ANY scientific experiment could be that there is a creator. Is this a reasonable conclusion? Obviously not. In the case for experimental abiogenesis, all a researcher would have done is to set up certain conditions so that the do novo creation of "life" was greatly facilitated - but it would still come about by natural processes. The creation of life would thus not reveal any evidence of a creator. All it would reveal is that under certain conditions, spontaneous formation of life is possible.
I agree with the last statement. However, based on this am I safe to assume you cannot see any evidence for a creator in nature?

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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leoofno
Skeptic Friend

USA
346 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  08:43:22   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send leoofno a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

quote:
I've been waiting for quite some time for an ID proponent to bring about a similar argument. Taking it to the extreme, what you are in effect advocating is that since a scientific experiment is always "intelligently designed", the conclusion of ANY scientific experiment could be that there is a creator. Is this a reasonable conclusion? Obviously not. In the case for experimental abiogenesis, all a researcher would have done is to set up certain conditions so that the do novo creation of "life" was greatly facilitated - but it would still come about by natural processes. The creation of life would thus not reveal any evidence of a creator. All it would reveal is that under certain conditions, spontaneous formation of life is possible.
I agree with the last statement. However, based on this am I safe to assume you cannot see any evidence for a creator in nature?



I can't answer for Hawks, but from my point of view I see no evidence for a creator that can't be more easily explained by natural processes.

For example, we don't know how life started on Earth, but we can set up experiments in which natural processes create stuff that gets pretty close. Since we can observe natural processes that get us a good bit of the way from chemicals to life, I consider a natural explanation for abiogenesis to be more rational than a supernatural explanation.

I wonder, what would be evidence for a creator that would be inconsistent with a non-supernatural universe? In a "natural" universe, there's no reason you couldn't have a big bang. In a "natural" universe, you would expect any life that evolved to be well suited to the environment in which it evolved such that altering the environment even by a small amount could be deadly.

What kind of evidence would one look for? I think that's a fundemental problem with the "Theory of God". While you can come up with some supporting evidence, they are more easily explained by less fantastic theories.

"If you're not terrified, you're not paying attention." Eric Alterman
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  08:57:09   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
And that's where the logic seems to fail. "We don't know what precipitated the Big Bang" is not evidence for a creator. It's not evidence for anything, except that there's something which we mere humans do not know.
I disagree. Something had to start the process of the big bang, whether natural or supernatural. The best explanation we have is of a creator. It is not proof by any means but put with other observations it is evidence.

quote:
How is that logical? What is the probability that any given universe would not have constants which are favorable to life? As soon as you can calculate those odds, then perhaps you'll have something scientific. Until then, it's a guess, and not scientific evidence of a creator.
This Link
has an estimate of the probability of this universe occurring. I do not know how the probability was obtained for each parameter though.

quote:
Doesn't it make sense that evolution would instill a sense of community with one's neighbors in order to successfully reproduce the genes that all of a population share? Yes, I'm saying that "moral law" is instinctual, and not God-given. The existence of "moral law" is not diagnostic between a created universe and a natural universe.
Sure I can see this. But it is not any better explanation of the Moral law than God since we cannot observe this happening. I put this with other evidence for God to exist.

quote:
You're just missing the point of abiogenesis research here. It's not to recreate life (though that might be cool), it's to study plausible methods through which organic molecules became self-replicators and then later became "life." We will never know precisely how it happened, but there are already several very good hypotheses on the table.
Isn't this recreating life? Don't they have to create life to prove their hypothesis?

quote:
Then you are rather unique among the more fundamentalist Christians, Robb.
Yes I know, most in my church do not agree with me.

quote:
On the other hand, Matthew 7:21-23 states:
"Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only he who does the will of my Father who is in heaven. Many will say to me on that day, 'Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and in your name drive out demons and perform many miracles?' Then I will tell them plainly, 'I never knew you. Away from me, you evildoers!'
How does one reconcile the two accounts? Your account from Mark clearly says that any Baptist (for example) who claims the Catholics are all Hell-bound is wrong to do so. Matthew says otherwise.
The will of the father is for us to be saved. I think the people he is talking about do

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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leoofno
Skeptic Friend

USA
346 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  10:18:47   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send leoofno a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

quote:
And that's where the logic seems to fail. "We don't know what precipitated the Big Bang" is not evidence for a creator. It's not evidence for anything, except that there's something which we mere humans do not know.
I disagree. Something had to start the process of the big bang, whether natural or supernatural. The best explanation we have is of a creator. It is not proof by any means but put with other observations it is evidence.

quote:
How is that logical? What is the probability that any given universe would not have constants which are favorable to life? As soon as you can calculate those odds, then perhaps you'll have something scientific. Until then, it's a guess, and not scientific evidence of a creator.
This Link
has an estimate of the probability of this universe occurring. I do not know how the probability was obtained for each parameter though.

quote:
Doesn't it make sense that evolution would instill a sense of community with one's neighbors in order to successfully reproduce the genes that all of a population share? Yes, I'm saying that "moral law" is instinctual, and not God-given. The existence of "moral law" is not diagnostic between a created universe and a natural universe.
Sure I can see this. But it is not any better explanation of the Moral law than God since we cannot observe this happening. I put this with other evidence for God to exist.



Have you looked at that link very carefully? Its pretty weird. To calculate the probability of life on Earth, they include such things as:

quantity of anaeorbic bacteria in the oceans
quantity of aeorbic bacteria in the oceans
quantity, variety, and timing of sulfate-reducing bacteria
quantity, timing, & placement of carbonate-producing animals

I mean, what is this ? By the time these things exist, the probability is 1.0!

And the parameters! I doubt that these are all independent, which is required for what they are doing. I'm also highly skeptical of the relevance of many of them.:


galaxy location
cobalt quantity in crust
tectonic activity
air turbulence in troposphere
amount of outward migration of Neptune

If I didn't know better, I'd think that Hugh Ross was padding the parameters to decrease the odds as much as possible.

Not to mention that this king of probability argument is totally bogus in the first place. Improbable things happen all the time, and the universe is a mind-bogglingly big place.

"If you're not terrified, you're not paying attention." Eric Alterman
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moakley
SFN Regular

USA
1888 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  10:30:08   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send moakley a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

quote:
And that's where the logic seems to fail. "We don't know what precipitated the Big Bang" is not evidence for a creator. It's not evidence for anything, except that there's something which we mere humans do not know.

I disagree. Something had to start the process of the big bang, whether natural or supernatural. The best explanation we have is of a creator. It is not proof by any means but put with other observations it is evidence.

Here we go the ole first cause argument. And then how there can be only one uncaused cause who just happens to be a God of one's religion. Accepting the fact that we really don't know the cause of the Big Bang, and can't possibly know the cause of the Bing Bang leaves plenty of room for mere speculation. But of course possessing the absolute "Truth" allows one to state with certainty that the first cause had to be one's favorite God. Believing is easy.

Life is good

Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9687 Posts

Posted - 06/09/2006 :  11:41:02   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by leoofno

quote:
Originally posted by Robb
This Link
has an estimate of the probability of this universe occurring. I do not know how the probability was obtained for each parameter though.



Have you looked at that link very carefully? Its pretty weird. To calculate the probability of life on Earth, they include such things as:

quantity of anaeorbic bacteria in the oceans
quantity of aeorbic bacteria in the oceans
quantity, variety, and timing of sulfate-reducing bacteria
quantity, timing, & placement of carbonate-producing animals

And the parameters! I doubt that these are all independent, which is required for what they are doing. I'm also highly skeptical of the relevance of many of them.:

Not to mention that this king of probability argument is totally bogus in the first place. Improbable things happen all the time, and the universe is a mind-bogglingly big place.

Some time ago I posted a comment on a page very much like this. Perhaps it even is this page. It's nice will all references and such. As long as you don't bother really checking out the sources and read what they really tell. Then you find out that several of those references are bogus and/or irrelevant.

Edited to add:
I managed to dig up that thread from the archives.
http://www.skepticfriends.org/forum/topic.asp?ARCHIVE=true&TOPIC_ID=1867

Here is the link to the "probability of life on earth"
http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/designss.html

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 06/09/2006 12:52:56
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