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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
 Posted - 11/29/2006 : 17:12:34 [Permalink]
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H.H. said:
quote:
Exactly. Expect a massive global scale conflict as energy and food resources dwindle beyond their capacity to meet growing needs.
Energy is a serious concern. Food not so much.
Food, in areas where it is an issue, will be a limiting factor on population growth. We do have the ability to produce a lot more food than we currently do, if it ever comes to that. Western nations are not seeing steep pupulation growth curves, but are leveling out some. Most will be, if the current trend continues, be neutral or only slightly positive in 50 more years. So it doesn't seem we will be running out of food due to population pressures.
Energy demands, on the other hand, will continue to increase. There is only so much oil left, and we can estimate that the production of oil will peak(demand outpaces production and supply) sometime in this century. This is a limiting factor as well. It may spur wars, it may not. It depends on who is in charge at the time.
It will also do something else. If it suddenly happens it will cause a massive effort to find alternate power sources to meet demand. Will it change the world? Probably. But I don't think nukes and massive all out destruction will be the result.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2006 : 17:30:02 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by H. Humbert
quote:
Originally posted by Dude
The only realistic way that any modern nation is going to experience significant population reductions is from a massive war involving nukes.
Exactly. Expect a massive global scale conflict as energy and food resources dwindle beyond their capacity to meet growing needs.
I'm not saying it definitely will happen, but as I look ahead, nothing looks very hopeful to me.
Also note that a global plague and/or famine might trigger such too. Imagine if there were a prolonged dust-bowlesque drought that encompassed, say, all of Kansas and surrounding states. We might not starve, but someone else will when we buy their food from their greedy government. And given the level of international travel and the crowding of people in cities, a flu pandemic like the one in 1918 would kill tens to 100s of millions. It's not at all inconcievable to see large numbers of people die without nuclear war. |
-Chaloobi
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H. Humbert
SFN Die Hard
USA
4574 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2006 : 18:29:24 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by chaloobi
Also note that a global plague and/or famine might trigger such too. Imagine if there were a prolonged dust-bowlesque drought that encompassed, say, all of Kansas and surrounding states. We might not starve, but someone else will when we buy their food from their greedy government. And given the level of international travel and the crowding of people in cities, a flu pandemic like the one in 1918 would kill tens to 100s of millions. It's not at all inconcievable to see large numbers of people die without nuclear war.
Right. Imagine what will happen to a continent like Africa when the world gets even hotter and there's no aid to spare.
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"A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true." --Demosthenes
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." --Richard P. Feynman
"Face facts with dignity." --found inside a fortune cookie |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2006 : 20:42:41 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dude
Energy demands, on the other hand, will continue to increase. There is only so much oil left, and we can estimate that the production of oil will peak(demand outpaces production and supply) sometime in this century. This is a limiting factor as well. It may spur wars, it may not. It depends on who is in charge at the time.
I thought war already happened over oil...  |
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Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Orwellingly Yurz
SFN Regular
USA
529 Posts |
Posted - 11/30/2006 : 21:52:26 [Permalink]
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YO! A new film touches on this thread. I went to a screening of it this afternoon. It opens in San Francisco Christmas Day. In my city it opens January 5th. The film is titled "Children of Men." Most of the story in set in London or in other parts of the United Kingdom. The year in 2027. As the film opens, the YOUNGEST person on earth has just died. He is 18 years old. This is a frightening, chaotic movie that is, what I call, slice-of-life futuristic. Move over Orwell and Huxley. The guy who directed also did "Y tu mama tambien" and "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban."
Don't forget to take your Prozac before the movie starts.
OY! |
"The modern conservative...is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy. That is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
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Then what must be,
Must be...
And that is all
--Bob Dylan
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--me
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| Edited by - Orwellingly Yurz on 12/02/2006 22:49:03 |
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Siberia
SFN Addict
Brazil
2322 Posts |
Posted - 12/01/2006 : 07:24:50 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Orwellingly Yurz
YO! A new film touches on this thread. I went to a screening of it this afternoon. It opens in San Francisco Christmas Day. In my city it opens January 5th. The film is titled "Children of Men." Most of the story in set in London or in other parts of the United Kingdom. The year in 2029. As the film opens, the YOUNGEST person on earth has just died. He is 18 years old. This is a frightening, chaotic movie that is, what I call, slice-of-life futuristic. Move over Orwell and Huxley. The guy who directed also did "Y tu mama tambien" and "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban."
Don't forget to take your Prozac before the movie starts.
OY!
It's based on a book of same name, by P.D. James, is it not?
Viz. Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Children_of_Men
On the rest, I agree with Dude. |
"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa
"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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| Edited by - Siberia on 12/01/2006 07:27:05 |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 12/04/2006 : 11:46:29 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by H. Humbert
quote:
Originally posted by chaloobi
Also note that a global plague and/or famine might trigger such too. Imagine if there were a prolonged dust-bowlesque drought that encompassed, say, all of Kansas and surrounding states. We might not starve, but someone else will when we buy their food from their greedy government. And given the level of international travel and the crowding of people in cities, a flu pandemic like the one in 1918 would kill tens to 100s of millions. It's not at all inconcievable to see large numbers of people die without nuclear war.
Right. Imagine what will happen to a continent like Africa when the world gets even hotter and there's no aid to spare.
Technically, AIDS is a slow-motion plague that's wreaking havoc in Africa right now, with very large segments of population infected in some countries. And most frighteningly, AIDS is not a particularly easy disease to get, unlike the flu. Could a Euro-bubonic-style plague wipe out 30% of the African population inside a year? It did in Europe, though there was no health management there to speak of at the time... that's a key factor to consider.
As far as climate warming, it really is up in the air. What will happen to Africa when the world warms? Will there be blanket changes in wind and rain patterns? What affect on Africa would changes in ocean currents have? Is it a case of the extremes being more extreme or will there be complete changes in local climates? One of the aspects of climate change that is most frightening is that no one can predict what the future state will be.
So its all about the gamble. Is it worth it to interupt oil-coal based economy, and the political-economic power structures established around it, over a problem we can't even predict the effects of? Not to our current government, it's not. But the costs of losing that gamble - ie. worst case scenario - are catastrophic. It's like betting your life when you don't know the odds. Who would do that? |
-Chaloobi
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