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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
 Posted - 01/02/2010 : 11:50:27
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http://www.skepticfriends.org/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=10745
2009 contest thread^
Earthquakes
1) Predict the epicenter of the strongest earthquake according to the Richter scale, provide a city name or map coordinates; general areas and countries are not valid answers. 10 points for a correct prediction within 200km of the actual result, -1 point for each 200km further from the epicenter. 0 points if the result is further than 2000km from the actual result.
ACTUAL RESULT: 190km S. of Samoa Zero Hits
Paulos 23:Bainbridge Island, Washington, USA
BigPapaSmurf:25km N. of Kodiak, Alaska, USA
Dave W.:Clam Gulch, Alaska, USA
Pleco:S. Sumatra:-4.265 Lat, 101.190 Lon
Cuneiformist:Colombia:-1.5 Lat, -72.5 Lon
Filthy:San Francisco, California, USA
Moakley:Talcahuano, Chile
Robb:Medan, Sumatra
Vilhang:Shizuoka, Japan
Simon:Medan, Sumatra
2) Predict the exact strength to the tenth on the Richter, 3 points
ACTUAL RESULT: 8.1
Paulos 23:8.7
BigPapaSmurf:8.1 , HIT 3 points!
Dave W.:8.6
Pleco:8.4
Cuneiformist:7.0
Filthy:7.2
Moakley:7.9
Robb:7.6
Vilhang:7.0
Simon:7.5
Hurricanes
3) Predict the name of the Atlantic storm with the strongest pressure in millibars. Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda, Alpha, Beta
4 points for correct pick
ACTUAL RESULT: Bill 943mb
Paulos 23:Bill , HIT 4 points!
BigPapaSmurf:Danny
Dave W.:Kate
Pleco:Larry
Cuneiformist:Grace
Filthy:George? No George Filthy, you get Grace instead
Moakley:Kate
Robb:Fred
Vilhang:Mindy
Simon:Henri
4) Predict the Atlantic storm which will do the most damage in USD$ cost, to the United States, according to NOAA. 4 points for correct pick
ACTUAL RESULT: Ida, 173M$ Zero Hits
Paulos 23:Nicholas
BigPapaSmurf:Fred
Dave W.:Fred
Pleco:Grace
Cuneiformist:Grace
Filthy: George? No George Filthy, you get Grace instead
Moakley:Kate
Robb:Fred
Vilhang:George? Where the hell did George come from, you get Grace
Simon:Erika
5) Predict the number of named Atlantic storms that will impact the US shores with at least hurricane strength. 2 points for correct pick
ACTUAL RESULT: Zero , Zero hits
Paulos 23:7
BigPapaSmurf:4
Dave W.:3
Pleco:4
Cuneiformist:1
Filthy:4
Moakley:5
Robb:3
Vilhang:5
Simon:3
Commodities http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html
6) Predict the price of a barrel of light sweet crude(nym) at the New Year 2010. 5 points if within 3$, -1 point for each 3$ further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL ANSWER: $79.40
Paulos 23:68 -$11.40, 2 points
BigPapaSmurf:78-$1.40, 5 points
Dave W.:73-$6.40, 3 points
Pleco:92+$12.60, 1 points
Cuneiformist:72.50-6.90, 3 points
Filthy:85+$5.60, 4 points
Moakley:93.03+$13.63, 1 points
Robb:45-$34.40, 0 points
Vilhang:55-$24.40, 0 points
Simon:50-$29.40, 0 points
7) Predict the price of an ounce of gold(cmx) at the New Year 2010. 5 points if within 25$, -1 point for each 25$ further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL ANSWER: $1096.50
Paulos 23:810-$286.50,0 points
BigPapaSmurf:842 -$254.50,0 points
Dave W.:962 -$134.50,0 points
Pleco:764 -$332.50,0 points
Cuneiformist:790.40 -$306.10,0 points
Filthy:790 -$306.50,0 points
Moakley:1231.20 +$134.70,0 points
Robb:888 -$108.50,1 points
Vilhang:999 -$97.50,2 points
Simon:900 -$196.50,0 points
8) Predict the price of pork bellies(cme) in cents per pound, at the New Year 2010. 5 points if within $.03, -1 point for each .03$ further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL ANSWER: 88.00
Paulos 23: 1.01 +$0.13,1 points
BigPapaSmurf: 0.99 +$0.11,2 points
Dave W.: 0.9537 +$0.0737,3 points
Pleco: 0.8545 -$0.0255,5 points
Cuneiformist: 0.9560 +$0.076,3 points
Filthy: 1.05 +$0.17,0 points
Moakley: 0.8817 +$0.0017!,5 points
Robb: 0.78 -$0.10,2 points
Vilhang: 1.00 +$0.12,2 points
Simon: 0.80 -$0.08,3 points
Financials CNN Money Markets
9) Predict the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the close of the last day of trading 2009. 5 points if within 400 points, -1 points for each 400 further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL ANSWER: 10428.05
Paulos 23: 12,345 +1916.95,1 points
BigPapaSmurf: 9200-1228.05, 2 points
Dave W.: 9323.42-1104.63,3 points
Pleco: 9812 618.05,4 points
Cuneiformist: 9777.54 650.51,4 points
Filthy: 9000 1428.05,2 points
Moakley: 9342 1086.05,3 points
Robb: 8910 1518.05,2 points
Vilhang: 9000 1428.05,2 points
Simon: 9500 928.05,3 points
10) Predict the value of the USD$ in relation to the Euro rounded to the nearest US cent as of Jan 1 2010, 5 points if within 2%, -1 point for each 2% further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL ANSWER: 1 Dollar = .6976 Euro, 2%=.01395,4%=.0279,10%=.0698
Paulos 23: 1 Dollar = 1.5 Euros +.8024,0 points
BigPapaSmurf: 1 Dollar =.89Euros +.1924,0 points
Dave W.: 1 Dollar = .63 Euros-.0676,1 points
Pleco: 1 Dollar = .92 Euros +.2224,0 points
Cuneiformist: 1 Dollar = .8212 Euros +.1236,0 points
Filthy: 1 Dollar = 1.1 Euros +.4036,0 points
Moakley: 1 Dollar = .71 Euros +.0124,5 points
Robb: 1 Dollar = .76 Euros +.0624,1 points
Vilhang: 1 Dollar = .85 Euros +.1524,0 points
Simon: 1 Dollar = 1.3 Euros +.6024,0 points
Deadpool
11) List five famous people who will die between Feb 1st and Jan 1st 2010, 2 points for each correct, +5 points for all five correct. As always murdering of your deadpool listees will result in disqualification and imprisonment. Listing more than 5 will disqualify any listed after the fifth name.
Paulos 23: Bill Gates, Adam West, Kenny Loggins, Martha Wright, Philip Mahre
BigPapaSmurf: Liz Taylor, Roseanne Barr, Kim Jong Il, Fidel Castro, Ted Kennedy, 2 points
Dave W.: Cicely Tyson, David Bowie, Jimmy Carter, Tucker Carlson, Tom Bosley
Pleco: Amy Winehouse, Billy Graham, Phillis Diller, Mickey Rooney, Henry Kissenger
Cuneiformist: Fidel Castro, Stephen Hawking, Buzz Aldrin, Aretha Franklin, Vasily Smyslov
Filthy: Walter Cronkite, 2 points, Dick Cheney, Clint Eastwood, Rupert Murdock, Osama Bin Laden
Moakley: Billy Graham, Kirk Douglas, William Shatner, Barbera Bush, Ed McMahon, 2 points
Robb: Fidel Castro, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Willard Scott, Ted Kennedy, 2 points, Nancy Reagan
Vilhang: Fidel Castro, Kim Jong Il, Keith Richards, Barak Obama, Wolf Blitzer
Simon: Fidel Castro, Peter Falk, Ted Kennedy, 2 points, J.D. Salinger, Nancy Reagan
At the Movies!
Predict the movie which will lead the Worldwide Box office in 2009(IMDB.com) and its take in USD$,
12) Predict the name of the movie, 3 points
2009 movie list
ACTUAL RESULT: Harry Potter
Paulos 23: Atari
BigPapaSmurf: H. Potter, 3 points
Dave W.: H. Potter, 3 points
Pleco: Terminator 4
Cuneiformist: Wolverine
Filthy: H. Potter, 3 points
Moakley: Wolverine
Robb: H. Potter, 3 points
Vilhang: Avatar
Simon: H. Potter, 3 points
13) Predict the top movie's world wide take as of New Year 2010. 5 points if within 15 million USD$, -1 point for each 25 million further off, zero points minimum.
ACTUAL RESULT: $926M
Paulos 23: 789M$-$137M, 0 points
BigPapaSmurf: 897M$-$29M, 4 points
Dave W.: 1115M$+$191M, 0 points
Pleco: 880M$-$46M, 3 points
Cuneiformist: 890M$-$36M, 4 points
Filthy: (Invalid Answer)
Moakley: 783M$-$143M, 0 points
Robb: 798M$-$128M, 0 points
Vilhang: 800M$-$126M, 0 points
Simon: 1000M$+$74M, 2 points
Deadliest Terror Attack
14). Predict the exact number of people who will be killed in the deadliest terror attack OUTSIDE IRAQ (feb1-Jan1), and the city it takes place in/nearest, attacks by traditional military forces will not count, though school shootings and the like are valid. 10 points for exactly correct, -1 point for every 1 person off the actual number
ACTUAL RESULT: 117 dead, Zero Hits
Paulos 23: 5834
BigPapaSmurf: 77
Dave W.: 364
Pleco: 211
Cuneiformist: 107
Filthy: 190
Moakley: 137
Robb: 83
Vilhang: 35
Simon: 50
15) 4 points for naming the city/specific location
ACTUAL RESULT: Peshawar, Pakistan, Zero Hits
Paulos 23: Origins Game Fair 2009
BigPapaSmurf: Hyderabad
Dave W.: Riyadh
Pleco: Tel Aviv
Cuneiformist: Moscow
Filthy: London
Moakley: Cairo
Robb: London
Vilhang: Paris
Simon: Jerusalem
-----------------------------------------------
Total Score
-----------------------------------------------
10th place---Vilhang---6 points--3/15 hits, 2/2/2 points
9th place----Paulos 23-8 points--4/15 hits, 4/2/1/1 points
8th place----Filthy----11 points-4/15 hits, 4/2/2/3 points
7th place----Robb------11 points-6/15 hits, 1/2/2/1/2/3 points
6th place----Pleco-----13 points-4/15 hits, 1/5/4/3 points
4th place(T)-Dave W.---13 points-5/15 hits, 3/3/3/1/3 points
4th place(T)-Simon-----13 points-5/15 hits, 3/3/2/3/2 points
3rd place----Cuniform.-14 points-4/15 hits, 3/3/4/4 points
2nd place----Moakley---16 points-5/15 hits, 1/5/3/5/2 points
Wisdom of Crowds----18 points-6/15 hits, 3/4/3/3/2/3 points
1st place----Big Papa--21 points-7/15 hits, 3/5/2/2/2/3/4 points
Thanks for playing everyone!
Since I won my own contest the Super Awesome Prize Package will include,
1) A vacation home in Tuscany
2) A 2010 Caddilac STS
3) Four all expenses paid weeks at the Atlantis Resort in the Bahamas
4) Two Hookers
5) A kilo of coke
Since Moakley took 2nd place and I have a bunch of prizes left over from last year I will be sending him some junk including the Futurama season one DVDs and some other crap I can't remember. Congratz Moakley!
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Edited by - BigPapaSmurf on 01/04/2010 06:31:56
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 01/02/2010 : 15:36:31 [Permalink]
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| Congratulations BPS, and Moak! |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 01/02/2010 : 17:31:28 [Permalink]
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Way to go, BPS. And congrats to moak, too.
Nice to see someone else win this thing. 
Hey, how did the wisdom of crowds perform? |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 01/02/2010 : 20:44:28 [Permalink]
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| Damn. I never thought-- er, my powers of ESP couldn't perceive-- that gold would stay so high for so long. Alas... |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2010 : 06:28:45 [Permalink]
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Wisdom of the crowds(misses on unlisted questions)
Price Of A Barrel Of Light Sweet Crude
6) 71.15(79.40, -$8.25, 3 points)
Price Of Pork Bellies
8) 0.9276(0.88, -.0476, 4 points)
Value Of The DJIA
9) 9621(10428, -807, 3 points)
Deadpool
11a) Fidel Castro
11b) Ted Kennedy, (2 points)
11c) Billy Graham
11d) Kim Jong Il
11e) Nancy Reagan
Name Of The Top WW Movie
12) Harry Potter, half blood, (3 points)
Take Of The Top Movie
13) $884M(926M$, 3 points)
18 points, good enough for 2nd place...and a book deal. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2010 : 07:42:29 [Permalink]
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| Maybe next week, Ive lost interest in it. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2010 : 11:35:19 [Permalink]
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| Seems Avatar might have passed Potter by a hair on the 31st, cant find the daily data though. Either way I would only lose 4 points max if it did squeak by. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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moakley
SFN Regular
USA
1888 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2010 : 11:44:41 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by BigPapaSmurf
http://www.skepticfriends.org/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=10745
2009 contest thread^
Thanks for playing everyone!
Since I won my own contest the Super Awesome Prize Package will include,
1) A vacation home in Tuscany
2) A 2010 Caddilac STS
3) Four all expenses paid weeks at the Atlantis Resort in the Bahamas
4) Two Hookers
5) A kilo of coke
Since Moakley took 2nd place and I have a bunch of prizes left over from last year I will be sending him some junk including the Futurama season one DVDs and some other crap I can't remember. Congratz Moakley!
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Any chance that I can exchange this for half of 4) ? |
Life is good
Philosophy is questions that may never be answered. Religion is answers that may never be questioned. -Anonymous |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 01/04/2010 : 20:21:53 [Permalink]
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Big Poppa,
Since when does 1096.50 - 888 = 108.50? My calculations say that is $208.50.... so Robb gets bupkiss for that one. |
Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 01/05/2010 : 06:25:30 [Permalink]
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| Well Robb, VD just banished you to 8th place. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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2009 Psychic Contest Results!
