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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 03/05/2010 : 05:56:38
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Link
Climate scientists have long warned that global warming could unlock vast stores of the greenhouse gas methane that are frozen into the Arctic permafrost, setting off potentially significant increases in global warming.
Now researchers at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, and elsewhere say this change is under way in a little-studied area under the sea, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, west of the Bering Strait.
Natalia Shakhova, a scientist at the university and a leader of the study, said it was too soon to say whether the findings suggest that a dangerous release of methane looms. In a telephone news conference, she said researchers were only beginning to track the movement of this methane into the atmosphere as the undersea permafrost that traps it degrades.
But climate experts familiar with the new research reported in Friday’s issue of the journal Science that even though it does not suggest imminent climate catastrophe, it is important because of methane’s role as a greenhouse gas. Although carbon dioxide is far more abundant and persistent in the atmosphere, ton for ton atmospheric methane traps at least 25 times as much heat.
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But why should we care, eh? We won't be around to see it. 
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 06:28:35 [Permalink]
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| Im waiting for a giant methane burst, I'd love to see a video of the ocean shooting out a jet of flames. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 07:27:06 [Permalink]
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| BigDaddySmurf, it strikes me that your present sig may be relevant. We should have treated the earth with the same caution the Wacky Products suggests for Happy Fun Ball. But dammit, we had to taunt it! |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 03/05/2010 10:22:25 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 08:24:03 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
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| Natalia Shakhova, a scientist at the university and a leader of the study, said it was too soon to say whether the findings suggest that a dangerous release of methane looms. |
Yet this will not stop the alarmists from preaching doom and labeling anyone who dares to question the methane theory a denialist. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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The Rat
SFN Regular
Canada
1370 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 08:52:55 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Bill scottYet this will not stop the alarmists from preaching doom and labeling anyone who dares to question the methane theory a denialist. |
Oh no, of course we wouldn't want to raise any alarms, people might actually do something before it's too late. And those stupid scientists eh? I mean, what do those dumb-fucks know about methane, they probably made up the word! |
Bailey's second law; There is no relationship between the three virtues of intelligence, education, and wisdom.
You fiend! Never have I encountered such corrupt and foul-minded perversity! Have you ever considered a career in the Church? - The Bishop of Bath and Wells, Blackadder II
Baculum's page: http://www.bebo.com/Profile.jsp?MemberId=3947338590 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 08:55:08 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Originally posted by filthy
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| Natalia Shakhova, a scientist at the university and a leader of the study, said it was too soon to say whether the findings suggest that a dangerous release of methane looms. |
Yet this will not stop the alarmists from preaching doom and labeling anyone who dares to question the methane theory a denialist.
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Quote-mining again, Bill? Did you read beyond finding the line you wanted? Have you researched the effects of methane in the atmosphere? Do you realize that this methane is coming from the sea floor, not from dairy barns, and the implications of that? Do you recall the diagram of the Great Ocean Conveyor that I've posted numerous times?
Thought not.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 09:19:00 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by The Rat |
| And those stupid scientists eh? I mean, what do those dumb-fucks know about methane. |
They know enough to acknowledge that it is too soon to know if the findings will amount to any methane release. Yet some on this thread are already waiting for a jet of flames to burst forth out of the ocean. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Paulos23
Skeptic Friend
USA
446 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 09:19:15 [Permalink]
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| I remeber hearing this warning three or four years ago. Glad they are finally studying it. |
You can go wrong by being too skeptical as readily as by being too trusting. -- Robert A. Heinlein
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 09:21:22 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
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| Have you researched the effects of methane in the atmosphere? |
Natalia Shakhova has. And the conclusion was that it is too soon to know if the findings will amount to any methane release. Yet some on this thread are already waiting for a jet of flames to burst forth out of the ocean. That's how these brush fires get started. Some scientist says there may be a methane release, or they may not, and the next thing you know we have laymen out there warning the masses of a jet of flames to burst forth out of the ocean and the folks then go write their last will and testament. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 09:28:44 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by The Rat |
| Oh no, of course we wouldn't want to raise any alarms, people might actually do something before it's too late |
Too late for what? The leading scientist said it was too early to know if any danger looms, yet you are already saying we need to do something before it is too late. The case has already been settled in your mind, in spite of what the lead researcher had to say about it. That's how these brush fires get started. People are just chomping at the bit to tell us all the end is near. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 03/05/2010 10:51:07 |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 09:53:19 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
| Originally posted by The Rat |
| Oh no, of course we wouldn't want to raise any alarms, people might actually do something before it's too late |
Too late for what? The leading scientist said it was too early to know if any danger looms, yet you are already saying we need to do something before it is too late. The case has already been settled in your mind, in spite what the lead researcher had to say about it. That's how these brush fires get started. People are just chomping at the bit to tell us all the end is near.
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The leading researcher in a single institution. I predict that soon there will be many more institutions involved. My own reading tells me that methane has been slowly bubbling up for probably decades.
And there will be no great burst of fire -- that was obviously written facetiously. Might be better if there was.
I declare, your tunnel vision is so tight that you could fire a bullet through it!
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 10:41:01 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
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| The leading researcher in a single institution. |
The institution doing the research.
| I predict that soon there will be many more institutions involved. |
I am sure there will to. They don't want left out of the latest brush fire.
| My own reading tells me that methane has been slowly bubbling up for probably decades. |
Which would be evidence that this is not caused by man made global warming. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 03/05/2010 10:47:59 |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 10:55:45 [Permalink]
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Bill, scientists are supposed to be cautious in their conclusions, and they rightfully are so. What we see here is the typical caution of scientists, which stands in sharp contrast to the lies of the AGW deniers who call them "alarmists."
Statesmen and -women, however, are supposed to (but rarely do) look into the future and evaluate possible threats and the risks involved in them vs. the costs of countering them. Some risks are so potentially devastating that it simply make sense to take action against them -- especially when such action, such as a reduction in the use of fossil fuels, is almost entirely benign -- even before the hypothetical risks are fully proven.
Since the overwhelming scientific evidence is supportive of rapid global warming, and the ocean floor has unknown but huge amounts of methane trapped in the form of methane clathrates that are extremely sensitive to releasing methane due to warming, it only make sense that people should be alarmed at the possibility of oceanic heating. Especially when it is known that methane is 20 times as potent as a greenhouse gas than is carbon dioxide.
There's a real chance that the release of methane from clathrates on the ocean floor could begin a vicious cycle of run-away warming that could make what we're already experiencing look like an Indian Summer by comparison.
We're talking about possible "extinction events" here. "Warming" on a scale that may compare to cataclysms like the Permian-Triassic extinction event, or the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 03/05/2010 11:13:15 |
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 11:27:02 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
| My own reading tells me that methane has been slowly bubbling up for probably decades. |
Which would be evidence that this is not caused by man made global warming. |
Interesting conclusion. You do know that the industrial revolution began some 160 years ago (about 16 decades), right?
You also wrote:| ...and labeling anyone who dares to question the methane theory a denialist. |
Actually, the theory is sound, which is why Shakhova can say it's too early. If the theory were questionable, then you should have complained that Shakhova's statements are no better than coin flipping.
So either you can believe Shakhova's "too soon" (that you bolded as important) or you can question the theory upon which that "too soon" is based. Doing one undermines the other. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 11:38:34 [Permalink]
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Yeah, but Dave, give Bill a break! He's working from a different paradigm.
As in his Creationist arguments, he starts with a conclusion, then thrashes about grabbing quotes and slender slivers of "evidence" to support that conclusion.
No need for scientific caution, not for our Bill. Just call the careful researchers "alarmists," and throw in his bogeyman Al Gore's name whenever he's backed into a corner. |
“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 03/05/2010 : 11:42:46 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by HalfMooner |
| Bill, scientists are supposed to be cautious in their conclusions, and they rightfully are so. What we see here is the typical caution of scientists, which stands in sharp contrast to the lies of the AGW deniers who call them "alarmists." |
I call them/you alarmists for good reason. They/you want us alarmed over stuff the leading researcher says might not even be talking place.
| even before the hypothetical risks are fully proven. |
And that was my point in this thread. Many in this forum have already concluded that the hypothetical will be fully proven in spite of the lead researches insistence that it is too soon to know this. Their mind is already convinced before the research is even finish.
| it only make sense that people should be alarmed |
See what I mean. The lead researcher says that it is too soon to even know if there will be any release, or any danger in any release, yet you want everyone to live their life in an alarmed state. In other words you want folks alarmed over a situation that we don't even know is a real situation. That, by the very definition of the word, makes you an alarmist.
| There's a real chance that the release of methane from clathrates on the ocean floor could begin a vicious cycle of run-away warming that could make what we're already experiencing look like an Indian Summer by comparison. |
But you have to admit, it is too soon for you to know that to be true. There is also a rear chance it will not end in vicious cycles.
| We're talking about "warming" on a scale that may compare to cataclysmic extinction events like the Permian-Triassic extinction event, or the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. |
With MAY being the key word here. I may get struck by a bolt of lighting when I step outside today. That does not mean I have to whip the folks into a frenzy and set off alarms that cause them to cower in fear every time it rains. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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This ain’t good…
