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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
 Posted - 10/09/2006 : 09:15:45
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Yup, NK finally did it - they tested nukes. And now they're offering nukes to any nutjob with enough money to buy one. If this problem isn't nipped in the bud soon, I'm pretty much resigned to having a nuclear attack on some Western, probably American, city in the next 10 years. And as the analysts keep shouting, and our administration keeps plugging its ears, military force only increases terrorism.
And, yes, I do put part of the blame on President George W. Bush's shoulders. Clinton had worked hard to diplomatically deal with North Korea (not an easy thing to do), and in those negotiations had promised them a powerplant to help with their energy crisis. But then Bush got into office, refused to fullfill Clinton's offer, and then started shooting his mouth off about an "axis of evil". Then he launched a pre-emptive war with Iraq.
So of course North Korea pulled out of the nonproliferation nuclear treaty. Of course North Korea got fast and furious about finishing up their nukes. Of course North Korea has been beating its chest and talking smack about America. They will do everything in their power to avoid being next on the USA's hit list, and also to keep their own economy afloat so their government doesn't collapse. Now that they have nukes, nobody will risk attacking them. And now that the legit powers in the world won't aid them, they will turn back to selling arms to less scrupulous powers. Why should they care where they get the money?
Gee, Mr. Bush, now on top of a healthcare crisis, skyrocketing college tuition prices, an insane amount of national debt, and fear of corporations taking over the Internet and thereby limiting the ability of grassroots organization and independent media circulation, I get to feel a lot less safe from foreign attack too - thanks!
Now step in the other regional powers, and they perhaps say; the enemy of my enemy is my friend? http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/HJ10Dg03.html
This grand idiocy on the part of NK seems to be inspiring China (NK's longtime friend), South Korea (who has been working at reconcilliation with NK for 10 years) and Japan (longtime enemy of both China and both Koreas) to work together against NK. This could be a good or bad thing, the question is will the three use sanctions against NK (it's not like the aid ever reaches the starving people anyway) or whether this will start an arms race in the region where Japan and possibly even SK attempt to develop their own nukes.
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"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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pleco
SFN Addict
USA
2998 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 10:58:14 [Permalink]
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| I think we are all doomed. If jesus is comin' back, I hope he hurries! |
by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart. |
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Original_Intent
SFN Regular
USA
609 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 13:28:32 [Permalink]
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NK was as trustworthy in the deal as the US. The framework started to fall apart when the Republicans took office in the second half of Clinton's term...... The Republicans looked at it as appeasement. Which was the worse of the Clinton errors on this? Expecting Republicans to go along with something/anything he did or Expecting North Korea to actually follow what they said they would, even though there was evidence during his administration that they would not?
North Korea should have been allowed to die a horrible death in collapse, instead of beng bolstered by the rest of the world.
As far as the Asian Times article... Who know.... Anniversary of his accension? I read somewhere he likes to do that......
I am not trying to defend Bush the Cowboy. Telling them he won't deal is one thing (and a good thing), calling them evil (although IMHO accurate) is provacative, and casuses loss of face for them, which is important.
As far as selling nukes, I really can't beleive he is that incredibly stupid. He likes being the leader and exerting that kind of control. He knows he can fluster and gain attention. He also has to know that if a nuke is traced back to him, he will be gone. He dosen't care about Korea, just his ego and comfy life. (IMHO)
They will continue/re-start selling technology and arms that they have been selling anyway. I really doubt they will sell nukes.
Peace,
Joe |
| Edited by - Original_Intent on 10/09/2006 13:28:55 |
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 14:18:27 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
And, yes, I do put part of the blame on President George W. Bush's shoulders. Clinton had worked hard to diplomatically deal with North Korea (not an easy thing to do), and in those negotiations had promised them a powerplant to help with their energy crisis. But then Bush got into office, refused to fullfill Clinton's offer, and then started shooting his mouth off about an "axis of evil". Then he launched a pre-emptive war with Iraq.
What an interesting fabrication of history.
The North Koreans admitted in 2002 that they had been violating the 1994 agreement with Clinton from the get-go, and had been pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
So I guess Bush is such an asshole for trying to stop them, eh?
quote:
The Bush Administration disclosed on October 16, 2002, that North Korea had revealed to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly in Pyongyang that it was conducting a secret nuclear weapons program based on the process of uranium enrichment. North Korea
admitted the program in response to U.S. evidence presented by Kelly. The program is based on the process of uranium enrichment, in contrast to North Korea's pre-1995 nuclear program based on plutonium reprocessing. North Korea began a secret uranium enrichment program after 1995 reportedly with the assistance of Pakistan. North Korea provided Pakistan with intermediate range ballistic missiles in the late 1990s. The Central Intelligence
Agency issued a statement in December 2002 that North Korea likely could produce two or more atomic bombs annually through uranium enrichment after 2004.
In admitting to the secret program, Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju (an important figure in the North Korean regime) declared to Kelly that North Korea also possesses “more powerful” weapons.
fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB91141.pdf
1995. During Clinton's first term.
Can't blame the Republicans for that one. Nice try.
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| Edited by - Luke T. on 10/09/2006 14:19:27 |
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Luke T.
Skeptic Friend
140 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 14:25:22 [Permalink]
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quote:
The diplomatic term describes the 1994 agreement under which North Korea said it would no longer seek to develop nuclear weapons.
In exchange, the United States and others agreed to help build two light water nuclear reactors to replace the plutonium-producing reactors Pyongyang was using, The Associated Press reported.
The reactors were being financed mostly by South Korea and Japan. Construction of the reactors began just two months ago.
The agreement also called for inspections to verify that the terms were being adhered to, but so far Pyongyang has blocked all attempts to make such inspections.
http://archives.cnn.com/2002/US/10/16/us.nkorea/ |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 15:56:56 [Permalink]
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Someone please find a link to a reliable source stating the power of blast...
How large was it?
Edited to add, a wikipedia article says less than the intended 4kT. Anything else? |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
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"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
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Collateralmurder. |
| Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 10/09/2006 16:02:50 |
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:24:16 [Permalink]
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Joe wrote: quote:
or Expecting North Korea to actually follow what they said they would, even though there was evidence during his administration that they would not?
Yeah, that's a damn good point. Thanks for bringing it up. Not sure I totally agree with your opinion on this, but I totally respect it and see your point of view.
I really hope you are right about the selling of nukes. |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:27:23 [Permalink]
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test
Making a successful working device with such a low yield as only a kT or two requires a lot of expertise and technology. Something that I doubt North Korea have access to.
The other two alternatives that are more likely are either a fizzle (misfired device) or simply a hoax (a huge load of conventional explosives meant to emulate a nuclear blast). |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:29:02 [Permalink]
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Luke wrote: quote:
What an interesting fabrication of history.
The North Koreans admitted in 2002 that they had been violating the 1994 agreement with Clinton from the get-go, and had been pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
So I guess Bush is such an asshole for trying to stop them, eh?
By 2002 they were long supposed to have received energy aid and a power plant. If you want to argue that NK would have been developing nukes regardless of Clinton-like approaches, fine, I could see that argument. But I would also argue that they woulnd't have been working so fast, they certainly wouldn't have pulled out of the treaty (it was timed with Bush's war on Iraq for Christ's sake! I was in South Korea when all this was happening, I was reading the fuckin' paper every day. North Korea was clearly getting pumped-up in response to Bush's cowboy approach) and they wouldn't be such shit-stirrers right now. If they had kept developing nukes, they would have done so in secret and kept it secret in case they needed it. Now they've developed them quickly, out in the open, and we're about to see a possible friggin' arms race start in the East. Great! |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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marfknox
SFN Die Hard
USA
3739 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:47:14 [Permalink]
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quote:
I heard today on NPR that some (unnamed) scientists are speculating that its possible for North Korea to have faked a nuclear explosion with about a 1000 tons of TNT.
Yes, but unfortunately they also said that was a less likely possibility.
We can always hope. :-) |
"Too much certainty and clarity could lead to cruel intolerance" -Karen Armstrong
Check out my art store: http://www.marfknox.etsy.com
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:50:02 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test
Making a successful working device with such a low yield as only a kT or two requires a lot of expertise and technology. Something that I doubt North Korea have access to. The other two alternatives that are more likely are either a fizzle (misfired device) or simply a hoax (a huge load of conventional explosives meant to emulate a nuclear blast).
I heard today on NPR that some (unnamed) scientists are speculating that its possible for North Korea to have faked a nuclear explosion with about a 1000 tons of TNT. Seismic waves were picked up in various countries and the estimates of the power of the explosion vary a bit.
It should also be mentioned that atomic bomb technology is over 65 years old. Is there no reason why they wouldn't be testing a bomb that was on par with the first test in New Mexico in 1945 or early 50s explosions?
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Diversity, independence, innovation and imagination are progressive concepts ultimately alien to the conservative mind.
"TAX AND SPEND" IS GOOD! (TAX: Wealthy corporations who won't go poor even after taxes. SPEND: On public works programs, education, the environment, improvements.) |
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 16:53:41 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
quote:
I heard today on NPR that some (unnamed) scientists are speculating that its possible for North Korea to have faked a nuclear explosion with about a 1000 tons of TNT.
Yes, but unfortunately they also said that was a less likely possibility.
We can always hope. :-)
Sorry Marf but I added a further comment to my post which placed it in fron of your comment. I agree, and hope so -- though after posting, the realization that nuclear tech has been around for quite a while led me to the feeling that the test was for real.  |
Diversity, independence, innovation and imagination are progressive concepts ultimately alien to the conservative mind.
"TAX AND SPEND" IS GOOD! (TAX: Wealthy corporations who won't go poor even after taxes. SPEND: On public works programs, education, the environment, improvements.) |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 17:53:17 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Chippewa
It should also be mentioned that atomic bomb technology is over 65 years old. Is there no reason why they wouldn't be testing a bomb that was on par with the first test in New Mexico in 1945 or early 50s explosions?
Right. And the yield of the first blast was 20kT. That's why I'm doubtful that this was a real (as in a clear working) device, assuming the figures of a blast around 1-2kT are accurate.
North Korea having nuclear arms does not scare me as much as the idea of nuclear devices from the former Soviet Union states being sold or stolen. These are devices that already have tried and tested designs. What they need are basically only fresh triggers, and they are good to go, ready to be deployed by any radical terrorist group.
I'm surprised Al-Qaida haven't acquired or used one already.
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Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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Original_Intent
SFN Regular
USA
609 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 19:02:00 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Luke T.
quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
And, yes, I do put part of the blame on President George W. Bush's shoulders. Clinton had worked hard to diplomatically deal with North Korea (not an easy thing to do), and in those negotiations had promised them a powerplant to help with their energy crisis. But then Bush got into office, refused to fullfill Clinton's offer, and then started shooting his mouth off about an "axis of evil". Then he launched a pre-emptive war with Iraq.
What an interesting fabrication of history.
The North Koreans admitted in 2002 that they had been violating the 1994 agreement with Clinton from the get-go, and had been pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
So I guess Bush is such an asshole for trying to stop them, eh?
quote:
The Bush Administration disclosed on October 16, 2002, that North Korea had revealed to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly in Pyongyang that it was conducting a secret nuclear weapons program based on the process of uranium enrichment. North Korea
admitted the program in response to U.S. evidence presented by Kelly. The program is based on the process of uranium enrichment, in contrast to North Korea's pre-1995 nuclear program based on plutonium reprocessing. North Korea began a secret uranium enrichment program after 1995 reportedly with the assistance of Pakistan. North Korea provided Pakistan with intermediate range ballistic missiles in the late 1990s. The Central Intelligence
Agency issued a statement in December 2002 that North Korea likely could produce two or more atomic bombs annually through uranium enrichment after 2004.
In admitting to the secret program, Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju (an important figure in the North Korean regime) declared to Kelly that North Korea also possesses “more powerful” weapons.
fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB91141.pdf
1995. During Clinton's first term.
Can't blame the Republicans for that one. Nice try.
There is, just like a lot of things that have placed us where we are, plenty enough blame to go around.
Again, when the Republicans took office in the last part of Clinton's term, they didn't exactly hold up our end of the bargain. I think the bargain was bullshit, and little more then apeasment, but it was a bargain entered into by an elected official. Should have it been nullified outright, probably. Should it have been politicked into nothingness....no. Either keep it or trash it.
For dealing with idiots like Kim Jung, you need Teddy Rosevelt "big stick" not a Bush "big mouth."
Peace
Joe |
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Original_Intent
SFN Regular
USA
609 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 19:14:33 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
Joe wrote: quote:
or Expecting North Korea to actually follow what they said they would, even though there was evidence during his administration that they would not?
Yeah, that's a damn good point. Thanks for bringing it up. Not sure I totally agree with your opinion on this, but I totally respect it and see your point of view.
I really hope you are right about the selling of nukes.
My understanding is that nuclear material carries some sort of fingerrint that allows it to be traced back to a specific reactor. The samples were collected while the IAEA were in North Korea.
I sure to hell hope I am right too....
Peace
Joe |
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Neurosis
SFN Regular
USA
675 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2006 : 19:51:20 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by marfknox
If they had kept developing nukes, they would have done so in secret and kept it secret in case they needed it. Now they've developed them quickly, out in the open, and we're about to see a possible friggin' arms race start in the East. Great!
So you would rather they kept them hush, hush because? I understand your argument against the nondiplomacy of Bush's regime, but NK would and did violate the treaty regardless of Diplomacy. In thinking of WWII were Hitler ignored diplomacy yet fiegned diplomacy with a crooked smile, this is a similar case and would have been even more similar in the face of real diplomacy. |
Facts! Pssh, you can prove anything even remotely true with facts.
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[God] is an infinite nothing from nowhere with less power over our universe than the secretary of agriculture.
- Prof. Frink
Lisa: Yes, but wouldn't you rather know the truth than to delude yourself for happiness?
Marge: Well... um.... [goes outside to jump on tampoline with Homer.] |
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