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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
 Posted - 02/26/2008 : 13:34:30
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No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
Hmmm, pretty interesting that all four outlets come to the same conclusion because that would mean that Al Gore and his cronies are full of BS.
http://tinyurl.com/277bjp
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Edited by - Bill scott on 02/26/2008 14:27:31
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
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pleco
SFN Addict
USA
2998 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 13:45:39 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Yeah, a single year's data outweighs the long-term trends, don't it? 
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It does if it reflects your own political and socio-economic bias. |
by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart. |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 13:52:04 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dave W.
Yeah, a single year's data outweighs the long-term trends, don't it?
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Meteorologist Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change every recorded, either up or down.
And this is the direct opposite of what AG and the MMGW camp predicted we would see. That is why the battle cry has now shifted from "MMGW" to "global climate change."
Oh, and in the long term trends we see plenty of heating and cooling. Check out the graph.
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"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 02/26/2008 14:01:22 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 14:00:31 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by pleco
Originally posted by Dave W.
Yeah, a single year's data outweighs the long-term trends, don't it?
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It does if it reflects your own political and socio-economic bias.
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Al and his cronies have stacked the deck well. Record high temperatures are evidence for global warming. Record low temperatures are evidence for global warming as well. And if the folks want to make a big deal about all the record breaking cold we have experienced this season we will just change the battle cry from "man made global warming" to "global climate change." That should cover just about everything the naysayers can throw at us. (sigh) |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 14:20:48 [Permalink]
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C'mon Bill, you know how to do a link. Go back and fix that mess.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 14:29:42 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by filthy
C'mon Bill, you know how to do a link. Go back and fix that mess.
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For you fility anything.... |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26020 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 14:30:20 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Oh, and in the long term trends we see plenty of heating and cooling. Check out the graph. |
That's exactly my point, Bill. There's a lot of heating and cooling going on, with an overall upwards trend.
One year's data doesn't "erase" anything. Otherwise, we could all look at the same graph and say, "well, it's still hotter than it was in 1993, thus we have global warming still." But only people with as much experience with data sets and trends as you and Asher have would make such an argument. And here you are, doing so, just picking a different single year and ignoring the trend.
What "record low temperatures?" It's been unseasonably warm this winter here in Virginia, with a disturbing lack of snowfall. And before you gripe that these are local conditions, you already tried to pass off local data as being meaningful to the global trends. |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
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recurve boy
Skeptic Friend
Australia
53 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 14:56:37 [Permalink]
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I like Bill's selective quoting.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
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I'll believe that the sun is a bigger factor. So what is the lag between big changes in the sun and earth seeing the effects? If we have a massive drop, can't we also have a massive increase in temperature and be back at setting new record highs? Are the places that are traditionally cold, back to being cold again? That is, some places that don't see snow are seeing snow, what about that places that usually see snow but still aren't? Why were we setting record highs in the previous _years_ (not just a single years worth of data)?
Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70. |
Yikes!
So really, without more data, we really can't be sure what is happening. But we do know that Bill scott is happy to trade the future of the entire planet and everybody on it just to be in the "we were right" camp.
So what does this actually mean in terms of introducing measures to curb CO2 emissions? Pretty much nothing. If this is false, there is no change. If this is true, it will take a while for it to ramp up. If this happens and we decide to stop current research, then we are more screwed. It's getting _cold_. We need all the renewable energy we can get. If we do something, well, the curb in CO2 emissions didn't do anything anyway but now we have all this tech for renewable energy.
So really, no change. Our current course of action is the correct one. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
 Posted - 02/26/2008 : 16:39:48 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Originally posted by filthy
C'mon Bill, you know how to do a link. Go back and fix that mess.
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For you fility anything....
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Thanks, bro. Appreciate it.
Gotta do a little research before commenting (I'm also working on something unrelated so it might be a while). I've been through this topic so many times that it's created a new wrinkle in what's left of my brain. It itches.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist!
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Chippewa
SFN Regular
USA
1496 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 17:57:59 [Permalink]
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Look up "Global Dimming" - without it, Global Warming would be even more powerfully felt.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/ |
Diversity, independence, innovation and imagination are progressive concepts ultimately alien to the conservative mind.
"TAX AND SPEND" IS GOOD! (TAX: Wealthy corporations who won't go poor even after taxes. SPEND: On public works programs, education, the environment, improvements.) |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 19:13:27 [Permalink]
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When I look at that chart, I see a couple of unusually cold years (1992 and 2007) within a twenty-year trend of warming. There have always been such odd years, even in eras with little climate change.
Bill, you fail to see the forest for the distraction of the trees. Stepping back and looking at the grand scale, one sees climate. Looking at it close-up, one sees weather.
Why is it that I'm utterly certain that if 2007 had been an especially warm year, Bill, you'd have either ignored it, or have just pointed out that year-to-year temps do fluctuate chaotically? And I wonder what you'll be saying in twelve months, when/if global temps shoot back up into the long-term trend?
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
| Edited by - HalfMooner on 02/26/2008 20:02:08 |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13476 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 20:00:56 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
Originally posted by Dave W.
Yeah, a single year's data outweighs the long-term trends, don't it?
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Meteorologist Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change every recorded, either up or down.
And this is the direct opposite of what AG and the MMGW camp predicted we would see. That is why the battle cry has now shifted from "MMGW" to "global climate change."
Oh, and in the long term trends we see plenty of heating and cooling. Check out the graph.
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From the blog: Watts Up With That ? Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, technology, and recent news by Anthony Watts , which was the source of the story reported by Daily Tech that Bill linked to, is this update:
UPDATE AND CAVEAT:
The website DailyTech has an article citing this blog entry as a reference, and their story got picked up by the Drudge report, resulting in a wide distribution. In the DailyTech article there is a paragraph:
“Anthony Watts compiled the results of all the sources. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C — a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year time. For all sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.”
I wish to state for the record, and with objection, that this statement is not mine: “–a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years”
There has been no “erasure”. This is an anomaly with a large magnitude, and it coincides with other anecdotal weather evidence. It is curious, it is unusual, but it does not “erase” anything. I have suggested a correction to Daily Tech. |
The last bolding is mine.
Bill, as usual your research is impeccable...
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Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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HalfMooner
Dingaling
Philippines
15831 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 20:06:44 [Permalink]
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Well, there you are, Bill. You again quoted a dishonest quote-mined source. (Nothing new there.) We await your next occasional sniping attack upon reality some weeks down the road.
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“Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2008 : 20:09:49 [Permalink]
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Billy!
Well, at least you are still practicing comedy.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2008 : 06:55:08 [Permalink]
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| Originally posted by Dave W. |
| That's exactly my point, Bill. There's a lot of heating and cooling going on, with an overall upwards trend. |
Can you be more specific here please. Define the window you speak of when you say "overall." Also, can you define what you mean by "upwards trend."
| One year's data doesn't "erase" anything. Otherwise, we could all look at the same graph and say, "well, it's still hotter than it was in 1993, thus we have global warming still." But only people with as much experience with data sets and trends as you and Asher have would make such an argument. And here you are, doing so, just picking a different single year and ignoring the trend. |
I guess where I stumble is in the fact that if each year we, as a planet, are pumping out more and more CO2 into the atmosphere then how can we have these sharp downward spikes in the earth's overall surface temps, unless the natural global climate cycle is going to do as it wills in spite of how much CO2 we pump out?
With the rate at which India and China, as well as other developing nations, are brining coal fired power plants on line we only increase our global CO2 output, year after year after year after year etc... Yet we see record breaking downward spikes in the global surface temps? This tells me that we can pump out all the CO2 we want yet the global climate cycle will do as it pleases, unfettered and unabated by us.
| What "record low temperatures?" |
http://tinyurl.com/2dbpf5
http://tinyurl.com/37gcrq
http://tinyurl.com/38psmn
http://tinyurl.com/3y5xz8
| It's been unseasonably warm this winter here in Virginia, with a disturbing lack of snowfall. And before you gripe that these are local conditions, you already tried to pass off local data as being meaningful to the global trends. |
Which is why I did not point to my local conditions here in Indiana, we are having a cold and snowy winter, but rather pointed to all four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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| Edited by - Bill scott on 02/27/2008 06:59:57 |
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global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
