|
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
 Posted - 02/12/2003 : 17:35:07 [Permalink]
|
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.
Dr. Mabuse wrote:quote:
According to Armand Delsemme (professor of astrophysics)...
Ah, okay. By those numbers, if the Moon is 4.6 billion years old, then the Earth is between 4.6 and 4.61 byo, and Jupiter is 4.645 byo, a difference of 0.97% at most? Well, you could perhaps increase the difference by some years by claiming that the creation of the Moon "reset" the Earth, but let's not bother, since the differences are tiny. This pretty much answers Computer Org's "Jupiter is much older than Earth" comment.
The "dates" I gave for the formation of the planets are just that: when they formed. What must be taken into account is that the planetary system had a massive amount of comets and asteroids that were leftovers from the formation. In the beginning there were several "Life-extinguishing Events" cometary hits on the Earth each decade. Not only from near-earth orbits, but Jupiter's gravitational influence sling-shot comets and asteroids from orbits beyond what is now the asteroid field. The intensity declined as the inner orbits and Jupiter ran out of ammo, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune also redirected comets that hit the inner planets. Like the decay-rate of a radioactive material, the impact became less and less frequent.
I wrote that Earth had acquired 99% of its mass. The last 1% of it was from cometary bombardment. We are not talking about megatonnes here, but more. It took about 1 billion years for the intensity (or hit-rate) to drop under one percent of the initial intensity. Low enough to let nature start experimenting on amino acids...
The same should hold true for Jupiter, however, each impact on Jupiter would be so much more intense. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall" is a fairly good analogy, The higher gravitation of Jupiter will accelerate asteroids and comets so much more as they fall down the gravity-well.
quote:
As far as Sagan's hypotheticals go, cruise to your local video store(s), and see if you can rent episode 12 (I think) of Sagan's 1980 "Cosmos" TV series. I believe that's the one with the nifty Jupiter critters in it.
Alas, video stores in Sweden don't have that kind of tapes. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
 |
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/12/2003 : 19:01:44 [Permalink]
|
I was re-reading the thread and then it occurred to me that failed to reflect upon this post...
quote:
Originally posted by Computer Org
NASA intends to send the spacecraft Galelio into Jupiter so as not to 'contaminate' any of the Jovian moons with Earthly biostuffs.
It may sound very silly, but I worry very much about sending any of Earth's junk deliberately crashing into Jupiter's 'surface' for---who knows??---what if there are Jovian civilizations, perhaps even Jovian technological civilizations?
<snip>
Galileo would be less than a mosqito-bite on the forehead of the guy that just got his head chopped of... 
The comet Shomaker-Levy 9 that hit Jupiter in the summer of 1994 had Life-extinguishing potential. The gravitation ripped the comet apart before it came close, so there were several major fragments instead of one huge hit. http://www.isc.tamu.edu/~astro/sl9/cometfaq2.html#Q3.1
quote:
The real show-stopper was fragment G which struck Jupiter with an estimated energy equivalent to 6,000,000 megatons of TNT (about 600 times the estimated arsenal of the world). The fireball from fragment G rose about 3000 km above the Jovian cloudtops and was observed by many observatories (mostly in infrared).
Whoops... Had it struck Earth, it would have ended life as we know it. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
|
|
|
Computer Org
Skeptic Friend
392 Posts |
Posted - 02/13/2003 : 08:31:50 [Permalink]
|
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
<snip>
"Galileo would be less than a mosqito-bite on the forehead of the guy that just got his head chopped of...."
<snip>
I admit that I was indifferent to the subject "Life on (or above) Jupiter" until I watched Shoemaker-Levy 9 smash into the planet as if they were a series of deliberately-fired planetoid-sized cannon-balls.
It wasn't Jupiter that I had in mind at the time, but rather that someone had deliberately aimed a series of 'shots' into Jupiter.
My immediate next-thought was that 'they' had, perhaps, been aiming those 'shots' at someone: That is, that "Life on (or above) Jupiter" might exist and might be in some kind of War with someone else 'way out beyond Mars.
If, if, if----just if!----there is some kind of life in the [four, huge] outer planets and if, if, if there is some kind of War going on, no matter HOW pip-squeeky Galileo might be, it would not be a good thing for us; it would, in fact, be an act of War.
(Edited to add a {self-evident but useful} clarifying phrase.)
|
Do thou amend thy face, and I'll amend my life. --Falstaff |
| Edited by - Computer Org on 02/13/2003 09:38:52 |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2003 : 15:45:27 [Permalink]
|
quote:
Originally posted by Computer Org
It wasn't Jupiter that I had in mind at the time, but rather that someone had deliberately aimed a series of 'shots' into Jupiter.
That someone was GOD. Don't you see? He realized that we were about to discover that he had a little life-experiment stowed away, so, to cover up that little mistake (the bible never said he created life elsewhere) He had to get rid of it. "Damn! No ocean we kan make a flood from... Hmmm. But hey, I can throw a rock at it! Yeah! That will do!"
So whatever life existed on Jupiter, CO, rest assured, God snuffed it out.
|
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
|
|
|
walt fristoe
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 02/14/2003 : 16:00:59 [Permalink]
|
| Considering the strength of Jupiter's gravity, I expect it is often slammed by asteriods and comets. It's just that we haven't often been in a position to see it happen. If this is the case, and if these really are life-snuffing events, then one would suppose that life has never had much opportunity to thrive there. So it's unlikeley that any space wars are occuring there even as we speak! |
"If God chose George Bus of all the people in the world, how good could God be?"
Bill Maher |
| Edited by - walt fristoe on 02/14/2003 17:17:45 |
|
|
|
Computer Org
Skeptic Friend
392 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2003 : 08:02:58 [Permalink]
|
I refer to the last two posts, both of which are made in a kind of tongue-in-cheek, quasi-sarcastic mode in response to my earlier post, which read in part: "It wasn't Jupiter that I had in mind at the time, but rather that someone had deliberately aimed a series of 'shots' into Jupiter.".
When you say, Dr. Mabuse, "That someone was GOD.", I don't necessarily disagree----but for reasons which only a soldier might recognize as valid. 'Point men' have an ability to see the enemy when nothing is to be seen. A hard-nosed, well-experienced Infantry platoon will unhesitatingly drop to the ground (and cover) as soon as they see the 'Point' stop. (Hunters do the same for their bird-dogs, for much the same reason.)
I more-than-once, over the years, found myself taking a hard look at a seeming "enemy" (--an old habit left over from Viet Nam--) only to find myself staring at the sky. A spy-sattelite? An eagle thinking I was an extra-fat rabbit?? It happened often enough (--I had rejected spies and eagles--) that I bought a copy of Starry Night (--the astronomy program--) and each time it happened and I checked, I found that I'd been looking in the rough direction of Jupiter!
As a near-lifetime skeptic I was deeply puzzled;--but as an old soldier with a fairly keen sense for "where danger lurks", I filed the datum away. Then came Shoemaker-Levy. 
But when you say "So whatever life existed on Jupiter, CO, rest assured, God snuffed it out." and when Walt Fristoe says quote:
Considering the strength of Jupiter's gravity, I expect it is often slammed by asteriods and comets. It's just that we haven't often been in a position to see it happen. If this is the case, and if these really are life-snuffing events, then one would suppose that life has never had much opportunity to thrive there. So it's unlikeley that any space wars are occuring there even as we speak!
I respectfully (--since, after all, my stance does sound a little silly--) disagree.
Jupiter is BIG!! And astmospheric life is an entirely different environment than is life on solid ground. Were an asteriod to smash into the Pacific Ocean, (relatively) little damage would be done to life in the vast oceans and seas of Earth. Similarly for atmospheric lifeforms (--and their evolutionary advancements--both physical and social--) on Jupiter.
(Sorry for the unseeming length of this post.)
(Edited to correct a transient dyslexia-type error. Correction is orange. )
|
Do thou amend thy face, and I'll amend my life. --Falstaff |
| Edited by - Computer Org on 02/20/2003 07:35:53 |
|
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2003 : 16:11:21 [Permalink]
|
Computer Org, I really never intended to be disrespectful to you.
The "God snuffed it out"-thing was more a sarcastic comment directed at those who reject evolution in all its forms in favour of creationism.
I once belonged to a Pentecostal Church where I lived, and firmly believed what they were preaching. Until one day I started to think for myself. It was a slow (and painful) experience over a few years, my growing awareness and realization that I did not have to conform to the ideas I had been taught, when my friends more and more chose to distance themselves to me afraid they might get contaminated by weird ideas (or something I don't know what...). Now I see clearly how stuffed they are, holy and full of themselves, yet under the surface they are just as bad as everyone else. Even more so, as they go to church and pretend they are better persons.
Just to let you know where I came from.
Now, regarding life on Jupiter...
To create life the complexity must increase a lot, in more technical terms we must decrease local entropy. The only way to do that is to use an external energy source. The only localized energy source available is static electricity discharge. And while the lightning strikes often on Jupiter, the probability of it striking at the same place twice is too low to provide any continuity.
The outermost layer of Jupiter is Ammonia clouds, under that follows ammonia hydrosulfide clouds, and finally water clouds. The temperature is below 200K (-73*C or -100F). If complex (macro-) molecules form (unlikely at that temperature), they would be heavy enough to fall down through to the hydrogen and helium part of the planet, where it will be broken down by either 1) Pressure (from 10 Earth atmospheres at 150 km down in the clouds to thousands and ten thousands close to the core) or 2) temperature (increasing from 200 in the clouds to 22000K at the core), or 3) the pure chemical nastiness of liquid and metallic-liquid hydrogen.
Important criteria for life is a self-replicating structure and ability to pass information to the next generation, as well as ability to adapt to changing conditions. Personally I don't think the environment I just described is good enough permit any kind of life. Carbon based or otherwise. But in the end, it's your decision what to think.
The Galileo probe didn't crash either. While it entered the upper atmosphere at 171000 km/h, friction slow it down to 40 km/h, and it then deployed a parachute. Instruments collected data for an hour before collapsing when pressure reached 25 atmospheres. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
|
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/15/2003 : 17:45:17 [Permalink]
|
Fireballn it wasn't my intention to hijack this thread. I'm sorry about that. Here are my answers to your original questions:
quote:
Originally posted by Fireballn
The universe needed to attain the necessary parameters to support life.
Question 1: Is there an equation that shows the probability of this to occur in mathematical form? I know hindsight is 100%.
In order to even start speculating about the probability of life, we must know how the universe started. Quantum mechanics suggests that the Universe started as a quantum fluctuation, and that this fluctuation then started expanding out of control. (very short layman version ) Before we can decide the probability of the initial parameters that govern the universe (why does the down-quark have one third of the charge of the electron? Why does the electron charge have its specific value? Why was only 4 dimensions expanded?) we must deduce what parameters are necessary and relevant. And we can't begin to do that until we have completed the Grand Unifying Theory. (And thus successfully combined the theory of relativity and quantum mechanics.) However, once that is done, new questions may arise before we can decide which will be the ultimate question: how or why?
quote:
Question 2: Could a probability equation be drawn to an individual person. (Looking at all the evidence the probability that person X exists is 1 in ________.)
The simple answer could be calculated if we disregard any influence from the environment. Then it would simply be the DNA at the persons fertilization. The are only so many ways to combine base pairs in order to produce a living being. To solve this we need a biologist and a mathematician.
A human being has more than 10 billion base pairs, and 4 different letters that may be encoded. Now, this number is HUGE, but we know that a living being can not be made of only one letter. We need a biologist who can tell us how many (active) base pairs can differ between any two humans. Let's call this number 'X'. Then the different combinations would be 4^X.
A ridiculously simple, and not very scientific approximation would be one chance in (the number of people that have ever lived on planet Earth). Since DNA is considered unique, how about this:
If the population on earth stabilizes at 5 billion with a new generation every 20 years and average life span of 60 would mean that 300 billion unique individuals would live under a period of 10000 years. In this time span, you would have a probability of 1 to 300 billions.
|
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
| Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 02/15/2003 17:58:43 |
|
|
|
Dave W.
Info Junkie
USA
26031 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2003 : 01:18:15 [Permalink]
|
Computer Org wrote:quote:
I refer to the last two posts, both of which are made in a kind of tongue-in-cheek, quasi-sarcastic mode in response to my earlier post...
Actually, mine was highly sarcastic. Sorry about that, really.quote:
Jupiter is BIG!! And astmospheric life is an entirely different environment than is life on solid ground. Were an asteriod to smash into the Pacific Ocean, (relatively) little damage would be done to life in the vast oceans and seas of Earth. Similarly for atmospheric lifeforms (--and their evolutionary advancements--both physical and social--) on Jupiter.
Well, don't forget that shock waves in water will do a lot more damage than shock waves in our thin air. A 1-kiloton blast underwater at a depth of 1,000 meters will kill about half of the 1-kilo fish 30 km away (more closer, and fewer farther away). Most of Jupiter's atmosphere is denser than that, and what we consider to be "significant" impact events are much more powerful than that.
And don't forget environmental effects. A rock a measly 10 miles across hitting Earth just about anywhere would eventually kill off most species not because of the explosion itself, but because of all the crap it'd throw into the air, blocking out the Sun, thereby ending any possibility of photosynthesis for many years. A rock that big hitting an ocean would kill off nearly all of the smaller organisms with gas-filled organs worldwide as soon as the shock waves travelled 'round the world (about 4 hours after impact if there were no land). |
- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too. |
|
|
|
riptor
Skeptic Friend
Germany
70 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2003 : 04:19:37 [Permalink]
|
quote:
If the population on earth stabilizes at 5 billion with a new generation every 20 years and average life span of 60 would mean that 300 billion unique individuals would live under a period of 10000 years. In this time span, you would have a probability of 1 to 300 billions.
Nope. You are calculating the chance if one person is exactly that person out of all persons existing within 10000 years.
We are talking about the propability of a person being the person it is within the number of all possible persons that could exist.
This way, it is scientifically "impossible" (the scientifically correct term is "highly improbable") that you became the person you are. |
Hail the Big bearded Jellyfish up in heaven above. |
|
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/16/2003 : 10:03:59 [Permalink]
|
quote:
Originally posted by riptor
Nope. You are calculating the chance if one person is exactly that person out of all persons existing within 10000 years.
We are talking about the propability of a person being the person it is within the number of all possible persons that could exist.
This way, it is scientifically "impossible" (the scientifically correct term is "highly improbable") that you became the person you are.
I wrote [i]]"A ridiculously simple, and not very scientific approximation"[/i then I provided some numbers to show how easily and quickly the numbers rise for possible combinations. I never pretended to make a scientific estimation based on those ten thousand years. (That is by the way, the standard time span for a civilization as used in the Drake Formula)
I still stand by my original statement that the closest would probably be when X=(the maximum number of base pairs that may differ while we still categorize the individual as a contemporary Homo Sapiens) The number of different genetic individuals would be 4^X.
Which is a hell of a lot more than 300 billions. It sure puts the Antropic principles in perspective.
|
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
|
|
|
Computer Org
Skeptic Friend
392 Posts |
Posted - 02/21/2003 : 09:54:47 [Permalink]
|
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse
Computer Org, I really never intended to be disrespectful to you.
The "God snuffed it out"-thing was more a sarcastic comment directed at those who reject evolution in all its forms in favour of creationism.
The fault was mine, Dr. Mabuse. When I wrotequote:
When you say, Dr. Mabuse, "That someone was GOD.", I don't necessarily agree----but for reasons which only a soldier might recognize as valid.
it should have read "disagree" rather than "agree". I have since corrected the original post (--in orange, so that it wouldn't be missed). 
|
Do thou amend thy face, and I'll amend my life. --Falstaff |
|
|
|
Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9696 Posts |
Posted - 02/22/2003 : 02:32:27 [Permalink]
|
I think I might have made a mistake in selecting my user name...
I hope I haven't given anyone the impression that I really am a doctor, MD or otherwise. I am an electronics engineer, working for Ericsson troubleshooting cell-phone base stations, with computers, music, movies and astronomy (president of the local amateur astronomy club) as hobbies.
Dr. Mabuse (Mah-boo-seh) is an acknowledgement of a movie character, in a series of German black-and-white movies of director Fritz Lang. The director who also made the 1927 sci-fi movie "Metropolis".
Edited: to correct spelling... |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
| Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 02/22/2003 02:35:18 |
|
|
|
Fireballn
Skeptic Friend
Canada
179 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2003 : 15:23:52 [Permalink]
|
| So I emailed you all my x-rays for nothing?.......damn. |
If i were the supreme being, I wouldn't have messed around with butterflies and daffodils. I would have started with lasers 8 o'clock day one!
-Time Bandits- |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
Topic Locked
