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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
 Posted - 01/24/2005 : 17:58:21 [Permalink]
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I'm not sure what you want us to say, Was_a_skeptic. You've admitted yourself that most psychics are frauds and yet you expect us to believe that psychics are real because an anonymous person claiming to have been a skeptic posts that this one psychic was right 90% of the time. We're skeptics, after all, so something like this isn't going to convince us. Indeed, there's no possible way any of us here can confirm what you're saying. (For all we know, you might actually work for the website in question and will, in a day or two, drop the link and urge us to go there!)
But if the guy is clairvoyant and really can predict the future, then we'll find otu about it soon enough. For instance, he could put his life's savings on the Patriots (minus the seven points) and make a fortune. He could invest in the stock market and become the next Warren Buffett! So when that happens, we'll see it and be compelled to buy your story. But until then, it's hard to take it seriously. |
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ktesibios
SFN Regular
USA
505 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:03:40 [Permalink]
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There just ins't enough information here for anyone to arrive at a solid diagnosis of what happens and what it means. All anyone can do is to throw out hypotheses about what might be going on.
Let me make an analogy. I fix professional audio equipment. If a client calls me up saying "I've got a compressor that makes a popping noise when I use it on vocals", I can't determine what's wrong from that much information. All I can do is to propose a range of possible causes based on my knowledge of how compressors in general work (if I know just what the piece is I can narrow it down somewhat) and how they can fail in order to produce the symptoms described. I can also describe tests that the user can perform which could falsify some of the hypotheses and narrow the range of causes which need to be considered. If the user can't or won't perform those tests, we're SOL as far as getting a head start on the diagnosis goes, and all I can propose is "bring it in and let me have a look at it".
If I have it in front of me, I can start with the same set of hypotheses and test them directly, eliminating them in sets and singles until I have one that's refused to be falsified. If I also find evidence directly supporting that hypothesis, then I know that I'm closing in on the cause.
So far, we're still in the situation I described first. All anyone can do is to propose a range of hypotheses based on their knowledge of methods that people posing as psychics commonly use to hoodwink other people. Tests that could narrow down the range of possible explanations have been proposed, and the performing of them seems to have been rejected.
Please bring it in and let us have a look at it. That is, please post the contact information for this alleged psychic. I'm sure that some of us can think of ways of testing the likely scenarios in a controlled and meaningful manner provided we have the ability to do it directly instead of a set of incomplete and unverifiable anecdotes.  |
"The Republican agenda is to turn the United States into a third-world shithole." -P.Z.Myers |
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Paulos23
Skeptic Friend
USA
446 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:08:25 [Permalink]
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Well, Was_a_Skeptic, I think your dismissing explinations to quickly. The cold reading *is* a good explination, and it is supprising the amount of information your giving away just by your voice. Also, are you sure he didn't get an info about you from your sister or your cousin?
Personally, I wished you tapped your conversation(s) so we would have some hard evidence to go over. A person's mind can do funny things to memory if they really want to believe it happened. |
You can go wrong by being too skeptical as readily as by being too trusting. -- Robert A. Heinlein
Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley |
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:10:06 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Was_a_skeptic
I never said the guy could predict yards ..calls..w/e .
Hmmm. It's strange that he can't be exact on something like the statisics of a football game. After all, earlier, you wrote:quote:
What about him telling me EXACTLY what I look like ? what about the numerous accurate dates I got from the other one ? What about him knowing EXACTLY what my mom did for a living EXACTLY what my sister looked like and what she was doing when she talked to him ? what the rooms she was in looked like ?.....Oh , and I forgot to mention he told me what would happen with something I had running thrue court at the time as well .
So which is it-- can this guy be exact, or can't he? |
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend
Sweden
9687 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:20:09 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Was_a_skeptic
Your just madd that You cant figure it out..that you have no explanation .
You have benn offered several plausible explanations. But you rejected them all. |
Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3
"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse
Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder. |
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filthy
SFN Die Hard
USA
14408 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:21:09 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Was_a_skeptic
Your just madd that You cant figure it out..that you have no explanation .
Makes me feel even better about it that such a small amount of people have ever had something so Awsome happen to them .
Being narrow minded is a curse.
One day , it may happen to you.
I can tell no one on here is going to be able to answer it becasue no one here understands it but you are not willing to admit it .
Thats ok.....the nature of a person is to hate things they cant understand .
Narrow minded? Betcher ass I am. I have a very low tolorance for bullshit, and that is all that you have given us so far.
But I'm not mad, no. I've seen it too many times before and understand it quite well.
And I too, would like the contact info on this grifter, giving you the benefit of the doubt that he exists at all.
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"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)
"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres
"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude
Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,
and Crypto-Communist! 
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Ricky
SFN Die Hard
USA
4907 Posts |
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dv82matt
SFN Regular
760 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 18:41:43 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Was_a_skeptic
Your just madd that You cant figure it out..that you have no explanation .
Perhaps you have discovered evidence of psychic powers. If so then good for you, but you should keep in mind that psychic powers have never been demonstrated in controlled circumstances. Also many, many people have been fooled by cold readers and palmists and such. How can you be absolutly certain that you have not been fooled?
quote:
Makes me feel even better about it that such a small amount of people have ever had something so Awsome happen to them .
I've taken an occasional flight of fancy myself. Sometimes reality's a bitch.
quote:
Being narrow minded is a curse.
Yeah, don't I know it. My advice is to open up your mind to other possible explanations for your experience.
quote:
One day , it may happen to you.
It has. I have had many experiences which I could not explain at the time, and to my embarrassment, have often leapt to irrational conclusions.quote:
I can tell no one on here is going to be able to answer it becasue no one here understands it but you are not willing to admit it .
Well you are describing an experience that you had. You have provided no hard evidence. It would be silly for anyone to even attempt a robust explanation when there is no evidence to analyze would it not.
All we have is your word that you have had experiences which you explain by way of psychic powers.
quote:
Thats ok.....the nature of a person is to hate things they cant understand .
It is also the nature of a person to dislike unwarranted condesension. |
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Storm
SFN Regular
USA
708 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 19:17:09 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Valiant Dancer
quote:
Cold reading (and I've done my share of it while reading Tarot)
One should never do cold reading while doing oracles, such as the Tarot, I ching, Runes.. What you pick or choose is meant to be interpeted as it's meaning... the other person whom you are reading it to should be able to decide how it relates to them... One can ask... but one should never cold read... |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 01/24/2005 : 19:42:53 [Permalink]
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quote:
Isa.....your 3 theroies are just plain stupid .
As for whoever was asking for the statistics..You are all very narrow minded people .
I never said the guy could predict yards ..calls..w/e . I was simply trying to hear a GOOD explanation for this . Not a stupid one like " Oh he threatened your sister " Thats just dumb ! . I guess the 7000 people who rated him lied about it! and all of the people he has described to themselfes all look like me! Jeez man , come on !
Well, if the guy can tell you "EXACTLY" so many details about yourself, and can predict the future about something you had going through court at the time....
Why the hell can't he give some solid predictions about the game?
Why can't he win a trifecta and a couple of pick 6's?
Why can't he make himself into a multi-billionaire on the stock market?
Why can't he claim the JREF prize?
Why can't he tell the Department of Justice the who/what/where/when of any possible future terrorist attacks?
Why can't he claim the reward for info that leads to the capture of <insert criminal name here>?
From your description, as changing from post to post as it is, it sounds like this guy is a skilled cold reader. That's the explanation. You just don't like it.
If you possesed a single shred of intelectual honesty you'd agree. You'd want the answers to the questions I have asked in this post and my other in this thread.
You stated clearly that your sister and cousin spoke to this guy before you did... in fact, you said they talked you into speaking with the guy.
Has the possibility occured to you that they may be having some fun at your expense? Maybe THEY clued the guy in as to your appearance and some other details. A skilled cold reader in possesion of some accurate info about you could make even the most skeptical person think they were legit.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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way
New Member
USA
35 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2005 : 00:00:01 [Permalink]
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I have to agree with Dude on this one. I think you have a friend or aquaintance who fancies themselves as quite the practical joker. It's called pulling your chain. Thinking to themselves "Let's put one over on the salesman. It will be the greatest practical joke ever."
And that (like the other offered explainations) is infinitely more likely than your explaination. |
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Starman
SFN Regular
Sweden
1613 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2005 : 02:01:34 [Permalink]
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Hi Was_a_skeptic!
You say he was 90% right not 100%. How did you get to this figure? Cold readers are good at disguising their misses. (A word for word transcript of one of your "sessions" would be interesting.)
You must understand that what you have provided here is just hearsay, not evidence.
Until you can give us something we can verify we have no reason to belive that you have found the one true psychic. All that you have presented so far can be explained with skillful cold or warm reading.
Sure you claim that you have not been conned. So does most victims of so called psychics.
It doesn't matter if this really is the real thing. You have not provided the evidence. We would be fools to believe you at this point and as you seem to think that hearsay is adequate evidence the value of your testimony is reduced even further.
Interesting evidence would be - A few predictions that we all can verify.
- Some information about some of the frequent members here, that they can verify.
If you have an other suggestion of how to provide evidence, lets hear it.
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BigPapaSmurf
SFN Die Hard
3192 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2005 : 06:34:06 [Permalink]
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Was_A_Skeptic, here is my untrained cold reading of Starman. All I know of him is that he is a skeptic and from Sweden, while most cold readers have voice and responses to work with (which is a lot).
Starman,
I see a disturbing lack of faith in you. While your family is mostly protestant you dismiss the spiritual and accept only what is in front of you. You are over 25, a reasonable weight and take vitamins and eat healty foods like strömming, even though you prefer the old fattening husmanskost to the newer types. I sense a history of alcoholism with some of the females in your family who is mostly native but part Finn. You voted against the adoption of the Euro. You feel the Monarchy is mostly pointless, yet harmless. You dont totally agree with the Social Democrats but generally support them. You like skiing, but prefer the warmer climate closer to home in the south where the trees have leaves. You work in the Engineering sector with a company who exports goods, around the world, you would prefer a different job, but arnt uncomfortable enough to actually go get one. You speak German, Swedish and English but never bothered with more than the commonly used Finnish words.
Thats 17 or so predictions, I cant wait to know how I did. |
"...things I have neither seen nor experienced nor heard tell of from anybody else; things, what is more, that do not in fact exist and could not ever exist at all. So my readers must not believe a word I say." -Lucian on his book True History
"...They accept such things on faith alone, without any evidence. So if a fraudulent and cunning person who knows how to take advantage of a situation comes among them, he can make himself rich in a short time." -Lucian critical of early Christians c.166 AD From his book, De Morte Peregrini |
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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie
USA
4826 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2005 : 08:19:36 [Permalink]
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quote:
Originally posted by Storm
Originally posted by Valiant Dancer
quote:
Cold reading (and I've done my share of it while reading Tarot)
One should never do cold reading while doing oracles, such as the Tarot, I ching, Runes.. What you pick or choose is meant to be interpeted as it's meaning... the other person whom you are reading it to should be able to decide how it relates to them... One can ask... but one should never cold read...
Sorry, Sassy. Cold reading is what it actually was, not the free flow I originally thought. I determined it was cold reading after analysis of what I was doing, not starting with the intention of cold reading. There is a big difference.
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Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils
Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion |
| Edited by - Valiant Dancer on 01/25/2005 08:20:20 |
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Was_a_skeptic
New Member
USA
14 Posts |
Posted - 01/25/2005 : 08:59:15 [Permalink]
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As I have said Numerous times . My sister didnt give this guy any info . He was someone random that my sister had called as she is into this kind stuff . I know for a fact my sister didnt give him any information . She had nothing to gain from it whatsoever .
I am still waiting for someone to tell me how this guy desribed so much . He had NO INFORMATION and he does this to numerous people .
I feel like im talking to the wall here . |
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