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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26006 Posts

Posted - 12/31/2005 :  22:52:48  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Well, it's been a busy year. But how correct a year was it? We had 18 correct predictions, 64 incorrect predictions, and 30 which I've not yet been able to properly categorize. So, out of 112 total, 16% correct, 57% wrong, and 27% "dunno."

Below, the correct predictions are listed in green with a smiley (), wrong in red with a frownie (), and the ones I'm having issues with are not colored, and are given a letter in front to easily identify them. Because what I'd like is for SFN members here to help out in determining whether those are correct predictions or not, or at least discuss the possibilities of finding out.

People are also free (and encouraged) to run their own statistical analyses on this, the raw data. One interesting question might be, "who was the best predictor?" I bet I know who was the worst...



Economics:
The price of oil will go to over $50.00 a barrel and stay there. (filthy)

The price of dollar will fall to reasonable rates. (Siberia)

(A) The Euro's value will increase dramatically. EU will increase in power, though that will also increase the chances of turmoil. (Siberia)

The US dollar will continue its slide against foreign currency due to increasing deficit spending. (Kil)

(B) The economy will continue to deteriorate and the government will hold at least two more 'economic summits' proclaiming the economy is great. (beskeptigal)

Bush will try to make a plan for fixing the deficit, when in fact his plan will be shot down, by republicans. (BigPapaSmurf)

(C) The Netherlands will see some recovery from present economic hardship. (tomk80)



Environment and Weather:
(D) There will be yet more clear-cut logging in the national forests. (filthy)

China will see massive flooding in the southern regions. (BigPapaSmurf)

2005 will be among the three hottest years ever recorded. (BigPapaSmurf)

There will be a partial collapse of the Alaskan highway system, a permafrost melthole to be exact. (BigPapaSmurf)

(E) The case for a human cause to global warming will continue to strenghten, but this will continue to be ignored by politicians in general. (tomk80)

(F) The U.S. will have one of its lowest crop yields in recent years. (H. Humbert)

(G) The global average temperature will be higher in 2005 than in recorded history. (chaloobi)



Health/Medicine:
(H) 17, no more no less, diet pills will come out. (Ricky)

An entirely new kind of human infection by a micro-organism will make the national news, much like the "flesh-eating bacteria" ate their way into the public mind not so long ago. And no, I'm not talking about "bird flu," since it's already made the news. (Dave W.)

The anthrax maniac, or a copycat, will become active again, killing three or four people. He will not be caught, at least not in '05. (filthy)

Stem cell research will make great strides in treating spinal cord injuries, at least partally healing some of them, in China or Europe; most likely China. (filthy)


- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.

filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 01/01/2006 :  04:46:26   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
If you use a loose definition of 'summit', I think that this one is dead on:

(B) The economy will continue to deteriorate and the government will hold at least two more 'economic summits' proclaiming the economy is great. (beskeptigal)

Interesting to note that, like the pros, our hit/miss percentages fall pretty much into the blind hawg catagory.




"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Siberia
SFN Addict

Brazil
2322 Posts

Posted - 01/01/2006 :  07:11:59   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Siberia's Homepage  Send Siberia an AOL message  Send Siberia a Yahoo! Message Send Siberia a Private Message
L is correct. At least in Brazil, we've been treated with several new options by McDonald's, including salads and fruit, this year.

"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa

"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Siberia
SFN Addict

Brazil
2322 Posts

Posted - 01/01/2006 :  07:17:56   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Siberia's Homepage  Send Siberia an AOL message  Send Siberia a Yahoo! Message Send Siberia a Private Message
Also, V is also correct - we've been in a political rollercoaster for awhile now. The industry's been rewarded and grew, agrobusiness not so much, Brazil's been acknowledged as a good place to invest, even though the economy's in a slow decline-rise-decline.

"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa

"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9675 Posts

Posted - 01/01/2006 :  14:37:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
X - True:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2003-03-03-anti-american-usat_x.htm
http://sev.prnewswire.com/publishing-information-services/20051209/NYTH13608122005-1.html

Ok, I admit, USAtoday isn't exactly the best news source, but I feel that the anti-American sentiment in Europe has increased. I can't find good links to articles or surveys of it, but it's a feeling I get from news coverage from around Europe. People reacting badly to secret CIA operations - kidnapping European citizens in Europe, covert prison facilities in Poland, the 1000th execution in USA since the death penalty was reinstated...

Perhaps Maverick and Starman, Pleco Plyss, and other Europeans can confirm?

(edited wrong name)

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 01/02/2006 15:52:46
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R.Wreck
SFN Regular

USA
1191 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  08:27:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send R.Wreck a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse:

Perhaps Maverick and Starman, Pleco, and other Europeans can confirm?


Hey Pleco, when did Alabama move to Europe?

The foundation of morality is to . . . give up pretending to believe that for which there is no evidence, and repeating unintelligible propositions about things beyond the possibliities of knowledge.
T. H. Huxley

The Cattle Prod of Enlightened Compassion
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pleco
SFN Addict

USA
2996 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  10:25:37   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit pleco's Homepage Send pleco a Private Message
Alabama left the Union again, didn't you hear?

LOL I'm honored to be thought of as a European! ;-) My ancestry comes from Europe, does that count?

by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart.
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R.Wreck
SFN Regular

USA
1191 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  11:53:51   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send R.Wreck a Private Message
Well I guess if y'all moved to the southern part of Europe that would be OK. Just take all the boiled okra with you please.

The foundation of morality is to . . . give up pretending to believe that for which there is no evidence, and repeating unintelligible propositions about things beyond the possibliities of knowledge.
T. H. Huxley

The Cattle Prod of Enlightened Compassion
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9675 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  15:51:29   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by R.Wreck

quote:
Originally posted by Dr. Mabuse:

Perhaps Maverick and Starman, Pleco, and other Europeans can confirm?


Hey Pleco, when did Alabama move to Europe?

Eh... I don't know what happened there. Temporary glitch in my data processing or something. I meant to write Plyss. He is European.

Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
Edited by - Dr. Mabuse on 01/02/2006 15:53:23
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beskeptigal
SFN Die Hard

USA
3834 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  16:22:45   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send beskeptigal a Private Message
(I) is definitely correct. I've never seen such an increase in crap in my years in medicine. But I suppose we'll have to see hard numbers to satisfy our scientific ideals so I'll see what I can find.

(M) didn't happen. No new occupations were called up.

(N) additional military leaves have been deferred but no revival of Catch 22.

(S) I do think they found more organic molecules in space somewhere, didn't they?

Under politics #2 rated as false, I don't agree. Bush is in a scandal about the eavesdropping without a warrant and it started before the end of 05.

(W) I believe this was true.

(X) I also think this was the case, though I'm not privy to much direct knowledge.

Religion #2 was correct. They got the stickers even though they were removed later and no more creationism teaching has taken hold.

(BB) I think this is definitely correct.

(DD) I'm certainly alarmed at the rate and I'd say it was increasing.


Thanks for the work on this thread, Dave. It's great fun!
Edited by - beskeptigal on 01/02/2006 16:24:13
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26006 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  18:38:34   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
For most of the one I couldn't figure out on my own, I think we're going to have to rely on less-than-perfect data to say, one way or the other, whether a prediction was met or not. After all, is anyone really going to complain, besides us? With that said...

(I) Changed to TRUE.
(L) Changed to TRUE.
(M) Changed to FALSE.
(N) Changed to FALSE.
(V) Changed to TRUE.
(W) Changed to TRUE.
(X) Changed to TRUE.
(BB) Changed to TRUE.

So, that's six more TRUE, and two more false, bringing the totals to 24 correct predictions, 66 incorrect predictions, and 22 which I've not yet been able to properly categorize. So, out of 112 total, 21% correct, 59% wrong, and 20% "dunno."

Things I have to take some issue with:

(DD) I'm not sure the number of terrorists actually increased in 2005. Many seem to have blown themselves up.

beskeptigal, more organic molecules found in space wouldn't satisfy (S), since we've known for decades that organics are pretty common, without there also being life.

Also, #2 under politics, "Bush will be suggested to be in a scandal, but there won't be enough evidence to show him guilty or there will be a cover up," isn't satisfied by Bush's eavesdropping without warrants, since Bush isn't trying to cover it up and there seems to be plenty of evidence.

Relgion #2, "The religious right will not get any form of creationism taught in secular schools beyond pasting stickers in science texts," was made false by the fact that the Dover Area School District evolution "disclaimer" wasn't read to students until January, 2005. Even though the lawsuit was filed in 2004, there was no legal injunction against reading it to the kids (though the science teachers refused to do so, forcing school administrators to). Reading the disclaimer, like the stickers, has been determined to be a form of "teaching."

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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R.Wreck
SFN Regular

USA
1191 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  19:23:12   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send R.Wreck a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Dave W.:

So, out of 112 total, 21% correct, 59% wrong, and 20% "dunno."



I think I see the problem here. Instead of predictions, we should try prophecy.

quote:
Authentic Prophecy is true at the moment it is being made, while the receiver of predictions has to wait and see ‘if' the results turn up.



So there you have it. Prophesize and your instantly correct, and no time wasted actually tallying up the score. Not to mention that "Prophet" looks way cooler than "Psychic" on a business card.

The foundation of morality is to . . . give up pretending to believe that for which there is no evidence, and repeating unintelligible propositions about things beyond the possibliities of knowledge.
T. H. Huxley

The Cattle Prod of Enlightened Compassion
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pleco
SFN Addict

USA
2996 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  19:28:17   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit pleco's Homepage Send pleco a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by R.Wreck

Well I guess if y'all moved to the southern part of Europe that would be OK. Just take all the boiled okra with you please.



Sorry, but I believe that okra are actually alien pods ala Invasion of the Body Snatchers and I will have nothing to do with them.

by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart.
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26006 Posts

Posted - 01/02/2006 :  19:44:43   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message
Siberia, did Greece "burn" or not? I've waited a year to find out how literally you meant that, so give!

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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Siberia
SFN Addict

Brazil
2322 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2006 :  06:56:18   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Siberia's Homepage  Send Siberia an AOL message  Send Siberia a Yahoo! Message Send Siberia a Private Message
Not really, no. 'tis wrong (at least, I can't remember). I meant some massive fires... instead, France burnt.

"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa

"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Dr. Mabuse
Septic Fiend

Sweden
9675 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2006 :  10:09:44   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send Dr. Mabuse an ICQ Message Send Dr. Mabuse a Private Message
I think we can declare 'A' false as well. Europe hasn't encreased it's power much, and the Euro has been pretty stable against both the US Dollar, and the Swedish Kronor. Any fluctuations in the exchange rates have been just that: fluctuations.


Dr. Mabuse - "When the going gets tough, the tough get Duct-tape..."
Dr. Mabuse whisper.mp3

"Equivocation is not just a job, for a creationist it's a way of life..." Dr. Mabuse

Support American Troops in Iraq:
Send them unarmed civilians for target practice..
Collateralmurder.
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