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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
 Posted - 09/13/2008 : 08:41:21
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... Is it wrong of me to not feel sympathy for the 240k people who refused a mandatory evacuation that included the words, "If you stay, you may face certain death."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482
The storm surge was forecast to be 15-20 feet... with 10 foot waves on top. Fortunately it seems as if the actual surge remained under 15feet.
It just seems, imo, that those who stayed behind should not expect to be rescued.
This seems like it could tie back to the whole "death of expertise" thing. People ignored or disregarded the opinion of actual experts in favor of their annecdotal "evidence" that weather forecasters are never right....
I feel bad for them, and obviously we should do the search & rescue thing... but maybe we should charge them for it. Make them pay the fuel cost and manpower cost of getting helicoptered or boated out of the wreckage.
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Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 09:26:48 [Permalink]
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| surprising that people would take this decision with Katrina still so recent in memories... |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Siberia
SFN Addict
Brazil
2322 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 12:11:32 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dude
... Is it wrong of me to not feel sympathy for the 240k people who refused a mandatory evacuation that included the words, "If you stay, you may face certain death."
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No more than I have for people who refuse, undermine or belittle medical treatment, then bitch and complain because they don't get better.
Of course, those people should have S&R, but still. Annoying. I just hope they learn better when they reap the consequences of their acts. |
"Why are you afraid of something you're not even sure exists?"
- The Kovenant, Via Negativa
"People who don't like their beliefs being laughed at shouldn't have such funny beliefs."
-- unknown
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Cuneiformist
The Imperfectionist
USA
4955 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 12:47:17 [Permalink]
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Well, I object to the phrase:
"you may face certain death."
I guess it's better than certainly facing possible death. But neither one is all that informative. |
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Dude
SFN Die Hard
USA
6891 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 13:45:05 [Permalink]
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| Taken in total, with the forecast of 20ft surge, the phrase is appropriate. There is inherent uncertainty in predicting future events. So in this instance it is ok to combine "may" with "certain". If the forecast is accurate you are going to die if you stay. |
Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin
Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth |
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Randy
SFN Regular
USA
1990 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 13:58:41 [Permalink]
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| Just a guess here...but, I'd say those that didn't evacuate, maybe religion/delusion (can't happen to me) came in to play. However you paint it, stupidity is the common denominator. |
"We are all connected; to each other biologically, to the earth chemically, to the rest of the universe atomically."
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet, celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"
-Neil DeGrasse Tyson |
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Kil
Evil Skeptic
USA
13476 Posts |
Posted - 09/13/2008 : 16:45:02 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Randy
Just a guess here...but, I'd say those that didn't evacuate, maybe religion/delusion (can't happen to me) came in to play. However you paint it, stupidity is the common denominator.
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And my guess is most of them just wanted to make sure they didn't lose their "stuff" as George Carlin used to put it. Perhaps they had been through this kind of "scare" before and nothing happened to them.
I have a friend who still thinks he could have saved his house during one of those big Malibu fires a few years ago if he hadn't heeded the evacuation orders in his area. And maybe he would have. Or maybe he would have been killed or injured. |
Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.
Why not question something for a change?
Genetic Literacy Project |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2008 : 10:43:51 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Dude
... Is it wrong of me to not feel sympathy for the 240k people who refused a mandatory evacuation that included the words, "If you stay, you may face certain death."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482
The storm surge was forecast to be 15-20 feet... with 10 foot waves on top. Fortunately it seems as if the actual surge remained under 15feet.
It just seems, imo, that those who stayed behind should not expect to be rescued.
This seems like it could tie back to the whole "death of expertise" thing. People ignored or disregarded the opinion of actual experts in favor of their annecdotal "evidence" that weather forecasters are never right....
I feel bad for them, and obviously we should do the search & rescue thing... but maybe we should charge them for it. Make them pay the fuel cost and manpower cost of getting helicoptered or boated out of the wreckage.
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On NPR everyone's been wowing how Cuba manages to weather all these storms with so few deaths. The answer so far has been simply that Cuba's really good at evacuating people to safer locations. This is apparently pretty straight forward in a more autocratic state.
Yesterday morning some government official - I don't know if it was Texas or the Feds - was talking about the rescue operations. He said something to the effect that "We're a democracy so there's no way we can force people to evacuate. So we gotta go out and rescue them." Really?
Ok, the compassionate thing to do is rescue these folks - we have to. I don't want to live in a country that let's people suffer mortally for their own stupidity. But I don't mind living in a country that makes people evacuate in the face of a deadly storm. IMO, if your negligence is burdening the state, then the state should have the right, within reason, to address your negligence. (The chargeback idea is good too, though uglier than making people leave. OTOH, forcing someone out of their home who really doesn't want to go can get very ugly.)
I get the sense that this official was actually trying to take a jab at Cuba's recent vaunted expertise at keeping it's people alive during hurricanes. Cuba might be good at keeping it's citizens alive in a storm, but they're still commies. You just can't say 'yeah, Cuba's government is good at something' can you?  |
-Chaloobi
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| Edited by - chaloobi on 09/15/2008 10:48:46 |
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2008 : 10:52:00 [Permalink]
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Yeah; I am pretty sure that it is how thing would go in Europe too.
Basically, send the army before the storm hits and have them check the houses one by one.
If anybody is still there and does not obey (it is a very small number of people), pepper spray him, that still is better than getting drown... |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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Bill scott
SFN Addict
USA
2103 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2008 : 11:44:18 [Permalink]
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| From many of the interviews that I saw many stated that they had went through the evacuation for Rita in 2005, where 110 people died in the evacuation process, and based on that past experience the thought of facing a 20ft storm surge sounded much more appealing then the later. Last figure I heard was about 26 lives have been claimed by Ike vs. the 110 in the Rita evacuation. Not saying this is the right/wrong move only that this was the common theme given by many that were staying. |
"Lets get one thing clear, Bill. Science does make some assumptions." -perrodetokio-
"In the end as skeptics we must realize that there is no real knowledge, there is only what is most reasonable to believe." -Coelacanth-
The fact that humans do science is what causes errors in science. -Dave W.-
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2008 : 12:03:38 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Bill scott
From many of the interviews that I saw many stated that they had went through the evacuation for Rita in 2005, where 110 people died in the evacuation process, and based on that past experience the thought of facing a 20ft storm surge sounded much more appealing then the later. Last figure I heard was about 26 lives have been claimed by Ike vs. the 110 in the Rita evacuation. Not saying this is the right/wrong move only that this was the common theme given by many that were staying.
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Hmmm.... It would be intersting to look at it like this:
Number Dead Evacuating / Total Evacuees
Number Dead Staying Put / Total Who Stayed
for both storms and, better yet, all recent storms. That is, generally, are the odds of death higher in evacuating or in weather a storm?
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-Chaloobi
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 09/15/2008 : 12:11:02 [Permalink]
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Calculating the two risk factors and see which behaviour is the safest...
You actually, probably, should divide the numbers according to how close the hurricane hit is. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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chaloobi
SFN Regular
1620 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2008 : 07:13:39 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by Simon
Calculating the two risk factors and see which behaviour is the safest...
You actually, probably, should divide the numbers according to how close the hurricane hit is.
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Other factors would be the location of those weathering the storm - coastal survival rates would be different from inland. Type of dwelling would figure in too. |
-Chaloobi
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Simon
SFN Regular
USA
1992 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2008 : 07:51:34 [Permalink]
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Not to mention, the intensity of the hurricane itself...
I am pretty sure somebody already conducted this study though. |
Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996 |
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perrodetokio
Skeptic Friend
275 Posts |
Posted - 09/16/2008 : 10:32:31 [Permalink]
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Originally posted by chaloobi
Originally posted by Dude
... Is it wrong of me to not feel sympathy for the 240k people who refused a mandatory evacuation that included the words, "If you stay, you may face certain death."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482
The storm surge was forecast to be 15-20 feet... with 10 foot waves on top. Fortunately it seems as if the actual surge remained under 15feet.
It just seems, imo, that those who stayed behind should not expect to be rescued.
This seems like it could tie back to the whole "death of expertise" thing. People ignored or disregarded the opinion of actual experts in favor of their annecdotal "evidence" that weather forecasters are never right....
I feel bad for them, and obviously we should do the search & rescue thing... but maybe we should charge them for it. Make them pay the fuel cost and manpower cost of getting helicoptered or boated out of the wreckage.
|
On NPR everyone's been wowing how Cuba manages to weather all these storms with so few deaths. The answer so far has been simply that Cuba's really good at evacuating people to safer locations. This is apparently pretty straight forward in a more autocratic state.
Yesterday morning some government official - I don't know if it was Texas or the Feds - was talking about the rescue operations. He said something to the effect that "We're a democracy so there's no way we can force people to evacuate. So we gotta go out and rescue them." Really?
Ok, the compassionate thing to do is rescue these folks - we have to. I don't want to live in a country that let's people suffer mortally for their own stupidity. But I don't mind living in a country that makes people evacuate in the face of a deadly storm. IMO, if your negligence is burdening the state, then the state should have the right, within reason, to address your negligence. (The chargeback idea is good too, though uglier than making people leave. OTOH, forcing someone out of their home who really doesn't want to go can get very ugly.)
I get the sense that this official was actually trying to take a jab at Cuba's recent vaunted expertise at keeping it's people alive during hurricanes. Cuba might be good at keeping it's citizens alive in a storm, but they're still commies. You just can't say 'yeah, Cuba's government is good at something' can you?
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Perhaps in Cuba people donīt mind evacuating because no one is going to come and loot their "stuff".
I donīt sympathise with authocratic states, nevertheless, I have close relatives that lived in Cuba and they say that, in general, there is very little robbing, looting, etc. And I donīt think the factor that people have little to steal plays a major part in that.
In my country there are cardboard houses in shanty-towns that get "broken into" in order to steal whatever they may have in them.
Cheers!
Perro de Tokio |
"Yes I have a belief in a creator/God but do not know that he exists." Bill Scott
"They are still mosquitoes! They did not turn into whales or lizards or anything else. They are still mosquitoes!..." Bill Scott
"We should have millions of missing links or transition fossils showing a fish turning into a philosopher..." Bill Scott |
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Lugh Shiva
SPAMMER
4 Posts |
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Evacuation orders...
