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 If these numbers hold it could be a landslide
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astropin
SFN Regular

USA
970 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  08:55:48  Show Profile Send astropin a Private Message  Reply with Quote
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

According to this electoral college map Obama essentially has 264 locked up, with 111 up for grabs. He only needs 6 of those 111. What's even better if you look at many of the states included in that 111 many are starting to lean to Obama.

Remember I did say if these numbers hold

I would rather face a cold reality than delude myself with comforting fantasies.

You are free to believe what you want to believe and I am free to ridicule you for it.

Atheism:
The result of an unbiased and rational search for the truth.

Infinitus est numerus stultorum

pleco
SFN Addict

USA
2996 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  08:56:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit pleco's Homepage Send pleco a Private Message  Reply with Quote
From fivethrityeight.com:




by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart.
Edited by - pleco on 10/07/2008 08:57:37
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  09:12:49   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Yes, yes that's all well & good, but I must remind: Karl Rove and Tom DeLay yet walk free, and the rot-enslimed, and unrepentant criminal core of the Republican Party has not changed an iota.




"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Simon
SFN Regular

USA
1992 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  09:21:08   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Simon a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Yeah; so far so good.

There is little doubt in my mind that the current economy crisis is helping Obama and the crisis has only worsened in recent days, strengthening the lead.

McCain's strategists know that, of course, and that is the reason for the current desperate mud-slinging that we are seeing.
I am not particularly expecting it to work, and I do not think that the GOP does either, but they have precious little else to offer, so it makes sense strategically.

It is more likely to backfire than to work; not only is reflecting poorly on the candidates' personality, but it also giving the impression that they are trying to cast a diversion on the real issues on to which they have no answer.
It is an all or nothing gamble, but it is strategically sound and does fit McCain's gambler's personality.


I will probably hate watching the debate; last time McCain's attitude and lies quickly infuriated me and this time will likely be even worse.

Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996
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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13462 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  10:57:49   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I would like to see the numbers hit double digits before I relax. That said, the trend has been all Obama since the start of the economic crisis. McCain shot himself in the foot on that one. (Really, he machine gunned himself in the foot.) Even without Obama's help, he is starting to be seen as erratic by independent voters.

I am more hopeful than I was a few weeks ago. But as a great catcher once said, "it ain't over 'till it's over".

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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Simon
SFN Regular

USA
1992 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  11:09:55   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Simon a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I don't know if he really shoot himself in the foot that much on the economy.

It's nobody's doing that it hit the fan at that particular moment and, once it happened, McCain was naturally in trouble.
Opinion has always been that Obama was strong on economy and McCain on foreign policy. Even McCain admitted it. Once the crisis erupted, the debate was bound to move toward economical issue and hence to favour Obama.

McCain knew that but there were little they could do about it at that point but try some stunt to move the focus away from this issue he was weak on.
Hence the stunts that started to multiply and to become more and more desperate (at first McCain suspending his campain to move the issue from pure economy to his ability to sacrifice himself for the bipartisan good of the country now Obama's connection to pastor Wright and Ayer).

At this point, at these diversion tactics fail to work one after the other, they keep on trying new ones, more risky and desperate each time, trying to get one that will work, all the time, not really expecting it to do...


That could be almost sad... if I was not cheering for them to drown.

Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996
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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13462 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  11:57:21   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Simon:
I don't know if he really shoot himself in the foot that much on the economy.

Sure he did. The first day of the crisis, he said; "The economy is fundamentally sound."
Every day, for five days after that, he said something different from what he stated the day before. Then, he did his fake campaign shut down run to Washington as the savior, (lying to Dave Letterman while being interviewed in New York in the process, and didn't leave until late the next day) and came back and announced that he had successfully helped broker a deal that was voted down in the house later the same day.

Now, he is trying to change the subject.

If that ain't shooting yourself in the foot, I don't know what is...

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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Gorgo
SFN Die Hard

USA
5310 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  12:07:18   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Gorgo a Private Message  Reply with Quote
They'll keep spinning that turd. I wonder about the fundamental
strength of the voting public. They may just buy the spin enough to keep from doing two things:

1) vote for a person with African heritage.
2) vote for someone with a name like Barack Hussein Obama

I'm not making predictions here, and I'm not saying I've made up my mind completely as to what I'll do. You can have both of them as far as I'm concerned. I'm just saying I wonder.

I know the rent is in arrears
The dog has not been fed in years
It's even worse than it appears
But it's alright-
Jerry Garcia
Robert Hunter



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Kil
Evil Skeptic

USA
13462 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  12:53:15   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Kil's Homepage  Send Kil an AOL message  Send Kil a Yahoo! Message Send Kil a Private Message  Reply with Quote
The GOP goes back to its ugly roots

Good essay from Salon.com.

Uncertainty may make you uncomfortable. Certainty makes you ridiculous.

Why not question something for a change?

Genetic Literacy Project
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Simon
SFN Regular

USA
1992 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  14:48:01   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Simon a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Very interesting article Kil.

At this point, it is less about giving argument than hooking a defibrillator to people's racist reflex.


But, regardless to the outcome of the election; after reading the article I was in awe at the realization as to how far America had gone toward racial integration.
I'd love to see Obama elected, but that he went so far and is performing so well is really nothing short of amazing. You guys should be fuckin' proud!

Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996
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HalfMooner
Dingaling

Philippines
15831 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  23:13:26   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send HalfMooner a Private Message  Reply with Quote
I think the accelerating poll position of Obama reflects that most of the country has finally examined the racial issue more deeply than ever before, and has found that it can support a presidential candidate of African heritage.

During this campaign, racism was the elephant in the room which few were willing to acknowledge. Make no mistake, the nearly silent and essentially racist questioning of whether a black person could be a good president was the most difficult problem that Obama had to overcome.

To some degree America has gotten to know Barrack Obama. As is often the case in personal interactions on the job or in public, familiarity can overcome a good part of racist stereotyping, particularly regarding individuals. With that barrier apparently largely out of the way for most Americans, the issues lend themselves to a Democratic victory. I think it's going to be a Obama landslide in November. I think only an assassination can stop that now. I can't imagine any other event on George Bush's watch that could possibly aid John McCain. Another 9/11 wouldn't even help McCain.

Lastly, McCain and Palin seem to be entirely too inept to be able to turn things around, even if some unseen opportunity arose.




Biology is just physics that has begun to smell bad.” —HalfMooner
Here's a link to Moonscape News, and one to its Archive.
Edited by - HalfMooner on 10/07/2008 23:15:03
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Dude
SFN Die Hard

USA
6891 Posts

Posted - 10/07/2008 :  23:45:29   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Dude a Private Message  Reply with Quote
A lot of people in the media are insisting that McCain can't be counted out because he keeps comming from behind in this campaign and ends up winning. They cite the primary as evidence.

I look back and can't help but think that his win in the primary was due to several things... Romney is a mormom, no way the other crazy christians are voting for him. Huckabee is religiously insane and the moderate republicans wouldn't vote for him. Rudy has been photographed in a dress. Thompson is.... well, Thompson. So McCain just happened to be the only guy the majority could compromise on.

The addition of Palin to his ticket briefly energized his base (they still love her, because she thinks humans and dinosaurs lived together once), but the moderates are moving strongly away from the McCain/Palin ticket.

Hagel has not endorsed anyone for president, but his wife has said she will be voting for Obama. That can't be a good sign for McCain.


Ignorance is preferable to error; and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing, than he who believes what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson

"god :: the last refuge of a man with no answers and no argument." - G. Carlin

Hope, n.
The handmaiden of desperation; the opiate of despair; the illegible signpost on the road to perdition. ~~ da filth
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pleco
SFN Addict

USA
2996 Posts

Posted - 10/08/2008 :  04:28:23   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit pleco's Homepage Send pleco a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Post debate:


by Filthy
The neo-con methane machine will soon be running at full fart.
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chaloobi
SFN Regular

1620 Posts

Posted - 10/08/2008 :  04:51:25   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Send chaloobi a Yahoo! Message Send chaloobi a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Don't forget the Republicans could steal the election like they (apparently) did in 2004. The SCOTUS would only help if their election stealing only produced the illusion of a tie, like in 2000. My guess is you're going to see a lot more race baiting. We should start seeing a lot more images of Obama touching white women...

-Chaloobi

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Simon
SFN Regular

USA
1992 Posts

Posted - 10/08/2008 :  07:16:16   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Simon a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Part of the reason why the media are 'not counting McCain out' is simply that, then, the race would not be as interesting and they would not be able to sell their airtime to us...


Not that I am counting him out myself either. Everything seems to be lining toward Obama's victory but you never know. And polls can be very inaccurate. Especially when the polled are self-concious about their answer (they would not want the person to think they are racist, for example, even if, in the end, they are).


But, really, what huge progress did America do!

Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every "superstar," every "supreme leader," every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.
Carl Sagan - 1996
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Dave W.
Info Junkie

USA
26001 Posts

Posted - 10/08/2008 :  07:40:31   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Dave W.'s Homepage Send Dave W. a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Someone on some other blog (I forget) thinks that the "October surprise" will be McCain bowing out of the race due to health issues, leaving Palin to pick up the reins. The person thinks that that will trigger millions of sympathy votes.

I don't think the Republican party has any obligation to make Palin their presidential candidate if McCain were unable to continue through to election day, though. Wouldn't it be more likely, if McCain were to keel over tomorrow, for the party big-wigs to say, "okay, Rudy [or whoever], it's your turn now," and show Palin the door?

- Dave W. (Private Msg, EMail)
Evidently, I rock!
Why not question something for a change?
Visit Dave's Psoriasis Info, too.
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