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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2004 :  16:16:49  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
Is global warming real? I have seen some evidence that global warming is happening but there is also contradictory data. The research I have done (mainly from the library and the internet) has not convinced me. The main problem I see is that temperatures taken from satellites and weather balloons since 1979 have not indicated an atmospheric increase in global temperatures. Does anybody know specifically how the Earth's surface temperatures are taken? Not all scientists agree with the theory either. If it is happening, how can we be sure it is from our pollution and not just a cyclic change?

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington

filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 03/22/2004 :  17:30:35   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
It is indeed, real. Recent evidence includs measurably shrinking ice caps and desalinazation of the Gulf Stream. Also, I've read that the greenhouse gas, CO-2 is at record levels.

A couple of years ago, I read of a long-time study on shallow water fish. Over the course of some thirty years, species prefering cooler water moved out deeper. Wish I'd saved the link to that; it was very interesting.

I think that the warming is cyclic, but certainly speeded up by us. Remember, every time we build a parking lot or clear-cut a forest, we are creating a heat sink. That, plus the atmospheric pollution, which gets the most attention.

I have read that a mean temperture rise of only some four or five degrees might be disasterous, wildly shifting weather patterns and creating deserts in croplands, and killing a great many species. I don't quite trust this number, but can't come up with a better one. What ever the number might be, the results described are accurate enough.

Another evidence is represented by our friend, the opossum. It has vastly expanded it's range northward over the last 3 or 4 decades. I myself, have observed this...


"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Trish
SFN Addict

USA
2102 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2004 :  09:19:48   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Trish a Private Message
One of the issues that is raised with the global warming senario, is that of several possible senarios run through, only the worst were reported in the media. There was also some speculation that we would actually hit another ice-age with hotspots around the cities.

There was some discussion around here a while back about global warming. Some good references were pointed out in that thread. But I don't know if posts from over 2 years ago are being archived.

You might be interested in reading those earlier threads Robb.

...no one has ever found a 4.5 billion year old stone artifact (at the right geological stratum) with the words "Made by God."
No Sense of Obligation by Matt Young

"Say what you will about the sweet miracle of unquestioning faith. I consider the capacity for it terrifying and vile!"
Mother Night by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.

They (Women Marines) don't have a nickname, and they don't need one. They get their basic training in a Marine atmosphere, at a Marine Post. They inherit the traditions of the Marines. They are Marines.
LtGen Thomas Holcomb, USMC
Commandant of the Marine Corps, 1943
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furshur
SFN Regular

USA
1536 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2004 :  09:38:24   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send furshur a Private Message
As others have stated the global warming is real. It is a fact. What is causing it is the controversy. Some say that we are still 'rebounding' from the "little ice age" of ~200 years ago. Other say this is simply a normal temperature cycle. Still others say that man is the primary contributer.
Calculations have shown that the 'greenhouse' gases can have a significant effect. Of course the change in temperature is so slight it is very difficult to say definitively that we are causing or even contributing to the change. In Scientific American this month there is a very interesting article about global warming and the author makes the point that we are in fact the cause of the warming. I tend to agree with the article but that is just me.
I find it very strange that this has become a political issue. How interesting that Democrates say (in general) that there is global warming and the Republicans say there is not.

If I knew then what I know now then I would know more now than I know.
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2004 :  10:13:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Trish

There was some discussion around here a while back about global warming. Some good references were pointed out in that thread. But I don't know if posts from over 2 years ago are being archived.

You might be interested in reading those earlier threads Robb.



If anybody knows how to retrieve these old threads let me know.

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 03/23/2004 :  10:32:39   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by furshur

As others have stated the global warming is real. It is a fact.
The data I have seen regarding the temperature increase is contradictory. The average surface temperatures are rising but the atmospheric temperatures are not. Maybe the theory explains this, I don't know. It makes sense to me that local surface temperatures would get hotter because of man made objects (roads, buildings, etc.) that can absorb and store more energy. I still haven't found where we take the surface temperatures. Could the probes be recording a higher local temperature due to the proximity to new man made bjects?
quote:
Originally posted by furshur
[brI find it very strange that this has become a political issue. How interesting that Democrates say (in general) that there is global warming and the Republicans say there is not.

This makes it hard to find the real truth.

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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Woody D
Skeptic Friend

Thailand
285 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  00:23:13   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Woody D a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by furshur
I find it very strange that this has become a political issue. How interesting that Democrates say (in general) that there is global warming and the Republicans say there is not.



BINGO!
If the democrats can scare people into paying more taxes to 'clean up' or 'prevent' 'disasters' or force business into more restrictions (causing consumers to pay more) they will put their hand in it.
nlm

www.Carabao.net
As long as there's, you know, sex and drugs, I can do without the rock and roll.
Mick Shrimpton
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Renae
SFN Regular

543 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  06:23:58   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Renae a Private Message
Robb, the NOAA website addresses your question about atmospheric verus surface temperatures. In short, parts of the atmosphere may be cooler because of the blanketing effect. But here's the link.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

You sound as though you're looking for evidence against global warming. Why is that?
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  06:58:46   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Renae

Robb, the NOAA website addresses your question about atmospheric verus surface temperatures. In short, parts of the atmosphere may be cooler because of the blanketing effect. But here's the link.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

Thanks, I will look at the site soon.
quote:
Originally posted by Renae

You sound as though you're looking for evidence against global warming. Why is that?

Reading my posts it does sound as if I am looking for evidence against it. I am really just trying to find out if it is real or not. Because it is a very political issue, I think the truth is harder to find. Right now I think that it is real but I am not convinced as to the cause. My two points I am trying to resolve is first; how are we taking the temperatures (surface and atmospheric) and second; if global warming is occurring, is there PROOF that it is from man or from natural climatic changes.


Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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Renae
SFN Regular

543 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  07:25:42   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Renae a Private Message
Yup, Robb, it's another example of science being manipulated and politicized.

One of the tools in my skeptic's tool box is what I call my "Vested Interest" filter. When someone presents information (even scientific information), I ask myself: Does this person have a vested interest in saying this? What do they have to gain by believing this? The answers to these questions help me put the information in perspective. This technique isn't disjunctive or definitive; it's just one way I use to evaluate information.

My questions to you: What do scientists have to gain by saying global warming is happening? What do they have to gain by saying global warming ISN'T happening?

Edited for truly pathetic grammar.
Edited by - Renae on 03/24/2004 07:30:25
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filthy
SFN Die Hard

USA
14408 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  08:25:22   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send filthy a Private Message
Scientists have everything to lose by publishing false data and sometimes even commiting honest mistakes, because they live under a sort of incestious canniblism called, "Peer Review." This means that if one does research on a subject and publishes a paper, he suddenly finds himself surrounded by others in the same and related fields, exibiting varying degreees of skepticism. If his results cannot be reproduced independantly, he's not merely embarrased, but might find himself losing research grants and even be out of a job.

Remember Fleishman and Pons, they of the Cold Fusion blunder? Has anyone heard from them, lately?


"What luck for rulers that men do not think." -- Adolf Hitler (1889 - 1945)

"If only we could impeach on the basis of criminal stupidity, 90% of the Rethuglicans and half of the Democrats would be thrown out of office." ~~ P.Z. Myres


"The default position of human nature is to punch the other guy in the face and take his stuff." ~~ Dude

Brother Boot Knife of Warm Humanitarianism,

and Crypto-Communist!

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Valiant Dancer
Forum Goalie

USA
4826 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  10:26:50   [Permalink]  Show Profile  Visit Valiant Dancer's Homepage Send Valiant Dancer a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Robb

quote:
Originally posted by Renae

Robb, the NOAA website addresses your question about atmospheric verus surface temperatures. In short, parts of the atmosphere may be cooler because of the blanketing effect. But here's the link.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

Thanks, I will look at the site soon.
quote:
Originally posted by Renae

You sound as though you're looking for evidence against global warming. Why is that?

Reading my posts it does sound as if I am looking for evidence against it. I am really just trying to find out if it is real or not. Because it is a very political issue, I think the truth is harder to find. Right now I think that it is real but I am not convinced as to the cause. My two points I am trying to resolve is first; how are we taking the temperatures (surface and atmospheric) and second; if global warming is occurring, is there PROOF that it is from man or from natural climatic changes.





A vast majority of scientists agree that global warming exists. A few fringe ones have recently posited that it does not and there is some question to their ties to the Bush Administration.

The ongoing debate amongst scientists is whether this is a natural climatic change or man-made. Herein lies the basis for politization. There is proof that the warming is due to both natural and man-made inputs. The severity of which is currently under debate. In some areas (like LA), a combination of natural wind patterns and the man-made air polutants cause smog. Less so than in the past due to environmental regulation of industry and vechiles.

Quite frankly, it is likely that, although man-made polution accounts for a minority of the warming, it is the only aspect that we can control. Industry has shown a real push to protect their profit margins to the point of obfusacing scientific data or challenging it in court to continue to protect their profit margins. (See Ethanol/MTBE snit the oil companies are currently throwing in the US.)

I think that there is some room for improvement and the Kyoto accord had some good points to it. One major flaw to Kyoto was the lack of inclusion of China into the Annex I countries. It also called for emissions to be cut 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012.

Cthulhu/Asmodeus when you're tired of voting for the lesser of two evils

Brother Cutlass of Reasoned Discussion
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Trish
SFN Addict

USA
2102 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  10:28:04   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Trish a Private Message
Only in reference to publishing results without going through the peer review process anymore. Generally used as the reasoning behind why peer review is extremely necessary to the scientific process.

...no one has ever found a 4.5 billion year old stone artifact (at the right geological stratum) with the words "Made by God."
No Sense of Obligation by Matt Young

"Say what you will about the sweet miracle of unquestioning faith. I consider the capacity for it terrifying and vile!"
Mother Night by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.

They (Women Marines) don't have a nickname, and they don't need one. They get their basic training in a Marine atmosphere, at a Marine Post. They inherit the traditions of the Marines. They are Marines.
LtGen Thomas Holcomb, USMC
Commandant of the Marine Corps, 1943
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Trish
SFN Addict

USA
2102 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  10:37:33   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Trish a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by furshur

As others have stated the global warming is real. It is a fact. What is causing it is the controversy. Some say that we are still 'rebounding' from the "little ice age" of ~200 years ago. Other say this is simply a normal temperature cycle. Still others say that man is the primary contributer.
Calculations have shown that the 'greenhouse' gases can have a significant effect. Of course the change in temperature is so slight it is very difficult to say definitively that we are causing or even contributing to the change. In Scientific American this month there is a very interesting article about global warming and the author makes the point that we are in fact the cause of the warming. I tend to agree with the article but that is just me.
I find it very strange that this has become a political issue. How interesting that Democrates say (in general) that there is global warming and the Republicans say there is not.




I'm actually interested in the results from the ice-core samples they've been pulling from Antarctica.

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/vostok/vostok_data.html

http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/Icecore/Abstracts/masson.pdf

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.htm

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/warnings/stories/

These should make for some interesting reading also Robb. Or google antarctic ice-core project, Vostok ice-cores, (I can't remember the other sites...). Good luck Robb.

...no one has ever found a 4.5 billion year old stone artifact (at the right geological stratum) with the words "Made by God."
No Sense of Obligation by Matt Young

"Say what you will about the sweet miracle of unquestioning faith. I consider the capacity for it terrifying and vile!"
Mother Night by Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.

They (Women Marines) don't have a nickname, and they don't need one. They get their basic training in a Marine atmosphere, at a Marine Post. They inherit the traditions of the Marines. They are Marines.
LtGen Thomas Holcomb, USMC
Commandant of the Marine Corps, 1943
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Woody D
Skeptic Friend

Thailand
285 Posts

Posted - 03/24/2004 :  12:23:33   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Woody D a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Renae
One of the tools in my skeptic's tool box is what I call my "Vested Interest" filter. When someone presents information (even scientific information), I ask myself: Does this person have a vested interest in saying this? What do they have to gain by believing this? The answers to these questions help me put the information in perspective. This technique isn't disjunctive or definitive; it's just one way I use to evaluate information.


Even before reading what you've said I was going to say, ask questions.
One that I ask is, How does this affect me? (not personally exactly but a majority of people). Many times we hear of studies with mice and diseases, the public gets all excited about taking one herb or another to cure what hasn't even been proven in humans yet. Then a year later we hear that it doesn't work. In other words people are sheep, just follow without thinking.
Yeah, so what IF there is gobal warming? Is it doing anything to you personaly? Or is it selling news papers?
What about, that I've heard for years, they are replacing the trees that are being cut down.
In the recent 'big' fires we had here in California someone (never remember names, sorry) who wrote a book about how it's natural for the trees to burn and because of enviromentalist in the last several years telling people to let the forrest grow and trying to stop the fires, that's why we had so much distruction. There was too much over growth and dead leafs on the floor to burn.
IMO it all comes down to Man trying to control nature. If there is warming and it's caused by humans and it's a problem, then they should get rid of their cars and use horses or their own feet. Yes, I'm serious.
But if there is warming and it's natural, and happens off and on throughout history then let it be and shut up.
So the bottom line is..... Too many people (and cars), not enough trees. One way or another, warming or not, stop using energy and stop having kids and go back to nature and so there won't be anything to worry about it.
nlm

www.Carabao.net
As long as there's, you know, sex and drugs, I can do without the rock and roll.
Mick Shrimpton
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Robb
SFN Regular

USA
1223 Posts

Posted - 03/26/2004 :  11:17:23   [Permalink]  Show Profile Send Robb a Private Message
Has anybody heard of this movie coming out?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,115203,00.html

I know the story is anti-global warming, but the movie still looks to be over the top and political in nature.

Government is not reason; it is not eloquent; it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearful master. - George Washington
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